@TwayStonei
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reward maximizer & circuit weaver Getting better at getting better faster
Joined January 2020
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Replying to @deredleritt3r
I once again want to remind people that private frontier is probably super exponential
Tway Stone retweeted
Meet Mistral Large 4, aka Le Chonk.
• 1T parameters, natively multimodal. 49B active.
It is the best open weights model from US or Europe on aggregated benchmarks.
• State-of-the-art on critical workloads, including cyber defense, manufacturing and finance and it surpasses closed frontier models on visual grounding.
• Forged in Europe end-to-end and is deployable from Europe via our own Mistral Cloud infrastructure.
• Available to all via API today. Working with cybersecurity partners privately.
Open weights release end of October.
🤖 Made with AI
Tway Stone retweeted
I have a Continuous Learning benchmark where models attempt to learn to play chess. They are given a /goal of learning and improving playing against a Stockfish opponent in 200 games. They can choose the difficulty, take notes, whatever they like - except cheating (e.g. using a chess engine) of course.
So far the improvement in Elo has been negative for Astra. Tiny bit positive for Opus, but could also be random. I've started Astra off sooner, so it finished its 200 games already, Opus is still playing.
Site here to watch how they are doing: ai-learning-to-play-chess.su…
The reason why this is interesting is that while we obviously don't have continuous learning, at the back of my mind I was thinking that maybe models can simulate it through self-scaffolding. Turns out not so much at least in this context. Perhaps it's a solvable problem and we don't need 'true' self-learning for models to learn in some way.
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Just a note, the idea for the benchmarks belongs to someone else, but I don't want to use their name to give this more weight without permission.
Tway Stone retweeted
Claude Opus 5.5 just took a big drop on NerfBench.
Yesterday it was scoring above launch. Today it's at 94.2%.
GPT 6 Astra: 98.0%
Sonnet 5.5: 100.9%
GPT 6.1 Sol: 106.7%
94.2% is still inside normal variance, so we can't call it a nerf yet.
But we're watching Opus 5.5 very closely.
Tway Stone retweeted
Claude Opus 5.5 has taken the top spot on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) with a score of 167, narrowly ahead of GPT-6 Astra.
Claude Sonnet 5.5 has roughly matched Claude Fable 5.1 (165).
IF subs start to cost ≈ API, AI use will be fking destroyed worldwide.
99% of people won't be able to sustain 5000$ for agentic workloads.
Yes, some fraction of Banks, finance will use the best intelligence because it will be dollar efficient for a long horizon tasks.
Fuck.
And here we go...
Claim: we've solved the AI slop problem (!) 💩🧹✨
Blog post: facebookresearch.github.io/R…
🧵1/5
Key idea: take *expert* human writing and learn rubrics that find the gap between experts and models. Train with those rubrics.
We train with RL-XAR (RL with eXpert Aligned Rubrics) & see large performance gains on writing scientific paper sections, Pulitzer prize novel continuations and high quality Wikipedia pages.
10 years won't make a difference from a time pov, there will be eternal goodness afterwards still. Sit with it before and work it out, roleplay a serious person at least.
If you can 10x you chances of getting eternal goodness by taking your time and working it out for 10 years then Cev of most people alive and thus humanity is to take this without a question. Why miss eternal goodness 10 years faster for the same but 10x riskier bet for everyone.
AI czar prediction:
Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, David Sacks, Lary Ellison (I would be very surprised)
I can't see Dario, Sam or Elon getting the role here. Very low chance this happens.
Perhaps some Trump relatives could take it too?
Or some "ex" government big guys.
Tway Stone retweeted
Replying to @nihilunbounded
it's very cringe that this whole thing has become substantially about Tao due to great man laid low ressentiment when he's not even that relevant to the important issues. I heavily disagree with his others' defensive reactions to NS but I guess we're doing iq powerlevel slop agn.
strongly empathize with the instinct to be skeptical when a lot of powerful parties are saying something in concert. i think quite a bit of skepticism is justified, and the "verifiers" should themselves be verified. they will become enormously powerful over the next few years
Tway Stone retweeted
The most absurd part of the "OpenAI plagiarized Navier-Stokes" is the fact that literally nobody else actually claims to have solved Navier-Stokes, whether before them or concurrently.
Tway Stone retweeted
As a follow-up, it's exceedingly unlikely that training on user data contributes much to frontier model gains in areas like math -- those come from scaling up pretraining and RLVR. User data is more likely used to find failure modes or situations that are hard to recreate with hired annotators.
That said, model companies vary in how aggressively they train on user data (and uploading repos isn't hypothetical). I wish there were stronger norms around disclosing how companies train on user data -- with what methods, and to improve what capabilities.
This isn't the most notable aspect of today's news, but on the user data issue, there are different kinds of *training on user data* with very different privacy/IP implications. Sadly, AI cos don't like to disclose what they're doing.
- pretrain on user data, with users' tokens as prediction targets: high regurgitation risk, improper
- use user prompts to distill large models into small ones: low regurg. risk, some companies probably do this
- use user traces to construct RL tasks: low regurg. risk, because RL has low memorization abilities, but can extract customer IP, depending on how it's done. Ranges from benign "use explicit user feedback in reward model training" to invasive "upload user's coding environment and commit history to turn into rl envs"
"De-identification" is weak -- you can identify someone with a small number of bits, and long traces have more than enough. And it doesn't affect IP leakage concerns.
Tway Stone retweeted
I am told the Hodge Conjecture is very close to being verified by OpenAI, and that one of OpenAI or Anthropic are also close to solving Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer. The race to be 'next' behind the scenes is unlike anything I've had described to me before
If true - and it may not be, given the scale of the rumour mill right now - it could mean 3 Millennium Problems fall in the space of a month. Crazy times