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Replying to @UCompounders
Copart: a wonderful company at a wonderful price (I bought it, of course) open.substack.com/pub/undisc…
You finally gave in and bought one of last year's 10 best US stocks. Winners keep winning, right?
A year later, it has dropped about 300 places on average, straight into the bottom half of the market.
Give Mr. Market 1 miracle, and it becomes his new minimum requirement.
No offense to any CEO who just announced a "transformational deal", but the ones who did nothing but play golf did better.
It turns out that doing something once in a while is a pretty bad way to get good at it.
In 1959, you bet on semiconductors. Congratulations, you were right.
In December, you bought the IPO of Transitron, America's 2nd biggest semiconductor company, just as stocks with "tron" in the name were flying at 100-200x earnings.
By 1962, they had crashed so hard that they got their own name: the Tronics Bubble. Transitron went out of business in 1986.
The irony is that 3 of the industry's biggest names did not exist in 1959: Intel was founded in 1968, TSMC in 1987 and Nvidia in 1993.
Good luck finding Nvidia in 1959.
I've never received so many questions about the companies I've analyzed as in the last few weeks (courtesy of a bad macro backdrop and general market uncertainty, for sure).
So I did a full update on every thesis, every position and my strategy for each:
Atlas, ISSC, Build-A-Bear, Cabral, Copart and Every Other Company Covered: Your Questions, Answered
open.substack.com/pub/undisc…
Both newsletters made Subst**k's Rising in Finance list on Undiscovered Resources' launch day. That was unexpected. Thank you all.
An Undiscovered Compounders subscription gets you both newsletters for €200/year until November 1.
(I really hate marketing, but it works, so...)
If you bought small caps because they were cheap, you've probably felt stupid for a while.
Over 12 months, the valuation gap explains 2% of returns. Over 10 years, it rises to 47%.
Unfortunately, nobody waits 10 years to judge your performance. Except you, maybe.
I can't think of a more underrated investor than Li Lu. Studying who he studied is the best way to understand why:
Every AI capex announcement is a bet against this chart, and a "gift" to the companies that will use AI without paying to build it.
Undiscovered Compounders retweeted
Northisle $NCX.V is our favorite copper-gold developer.
Juniors usually get 1 or 2 things right. It gets all 4: geology, management, shareholder base and capital structure.
Its 40km belt (a potential district) is barely explored.
Our 40k-word deep dive (valuation included):
Hi.
Hi, the Undiscovered Compounders team here.
We’ve decided to move our mining research into a separate newsletter and a separate X account.
For us, mining is one of the sectors that will outperform the most over the next decade, and it deserves its own space.
We’re 2 professional mining investors who run a closed resources fund with our own money, and we write the mining research we couldn’t find anywhere else.
This account is where we’ll talk about rocks and everything around them (companies, the sector, macro) without worrying about boring half of our community. If you don’t care about rocks, this account isn’t for you.
If you care, this is gonna be fun.
Companies that look like they're wasting capital are far more likely to see explosive growth.
Investors roll their eyes every time a CEO with bad returns on capital says "we're investing for growth" (at least I do).
This chart says they should roll them a little slower.
Innovative Aerosystems $IA just won its 3rd Liberty contract in 1 year. It's the first one specifically for its UMS, after 10+ years of waiting.
We analyzed it all in depth: open.substack.com/pub/undisc…
400 stocks went to zero.
Yet the portfolio that held them beat the market by 2.5% a year for 30 years. With an absurdly simple strategy: buy stocks after 70% drawdowns and leave them alone.
As someone who reads way too many annual reports, I find this mildly offensive.
Who cares how big the pie gets if you can't tell who'll survive long enough to get a slice?
Buy and hold works, except in the revolutions you're most tempted to buy and hold.
Neoclouds are the example playing out right now.


















