Nonpartisan tracking of USA polls & political-related news. Daily updates. Pollsters must have minimum grade of B/C & be nonpartisan. No generative AI used.
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#Election2026 - RACE CALL
Alaska Governor 2026
🟦 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins the Alaska Governor race.
UPDATE: Both senators from Nevada have publicly endorsed Schumer; a handful of others have intentionally stayed away from committal towards any candidate. In the last few hours, Van Hollen announced his leadership candidacy. Things are developing rapidly; the next update will be tomorrow.
SCHUMER: All eyes are on the growing division within the new Democratic majority-elect on if Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY) will remain the top Democrat in the chamber. Below is a list of all vote intentions I could find.
Non-committal means they have explicitly not committed in a statement. Unknown is that there has been no statement at all.
SCHUMER: All eyes are on the growing division within the new Democratic majority-elect on if Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY) will remain the top Democrat in the chamber. Below is a list of all vote intentions I could find.
Non-committal means they have explicitly not committed in a statement. Unknown is that there has been no statement at all.
UPDATE: AP has called the race. You heard it here first, folks 😉
Just one state to go: Alaska. It will take a few more days, maybe even a couple weeks. I’ll begin posting polls for presidential approval and 2028 primaries later this week.
#Election2026 - RACE CALL
Mississippi Senate 2026
🟦 Scott Colom wins the Mississippi Senate race.
#Election2026 - MISSISSIPPI SENATE UPDATE
Lots of county drops are coming in now. We'll definitely know the winner by the end of this week, possibly as early as tomorrow. We're mainly waiting on Hinds county to report their votes, the largest county in the state.
No call yet.
NEWS: Hegseth impeachment blocked in party line 211-204 vote.
HEGSETH IMPEACHMENT: Things are chaotic in Congress right now about the Hegseth impeachment vote. Democrats + Massie will need 3 more GOP votes to impeach.
To convict & remove would require 20 GOP Senators to cross the line. I seriously doubt that will happen.
I’m watching these developments closely.
NEWS: 🟥 Sen. John Thune (SD) has been re-elected to serve as Senate Minority Leader in the next Congress.
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CURRENT HOUSE PROJECTION
Tuesday, 11/10
🟦 260 🟥 175
I expect NC-3 to put the Democratic candidate over the edge due to remaining absentee ballots. All other races where candidates are leading, I expect them to hold their leads and win.
Democrats will flip 50 seats, Republicans will flip 4.
HEGSETH IMPEACHMENT: Things are chaotic in Congress right now about the Hegseth impeachment vote. Democrats + Massie will need 3 more GOP votes to impeach.
To convict & remove would require 20 GOP Senators to cross the line. I seriously doubt that will happen.
I’m watching these developments closely.
Partisan infighting is taking shape in both parties:
🟦 Some Democrats have either outright called for new congressional leadership, or have refused to commit to the current leadership. While I don’t expect any changes, the process in January could get murky.
🟥 Republicans in the Freedom Caucus are currently debating whether or not to postpone leadership elections within the party in order to have a discussion on why the midterms went so poorly.
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NEWS: Democratic Senators-elect at the Capitol for orientation. From left to right,
🟦 Sherrod Brown (OH)
🟦 James Talarico (TX)
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed (MI)
🟦 Roy Cooper (NC)
🟦 Josh Turek (IA)
🟦 Chuck Schumer (in office, Minority Leader)
🟦 Juliana Stratton (IL)
🟦 Chris Pappas (NH)
🟦 Annie Andrews (SC)
🟦 Troy Jackson (ME)
🟦 Peggy Flanagan (MN)
🟦 Adam Hamilton (KS)
2027 ELECTIONS:
Off-years aren’t lame; at least, off-years preceding presidential years aren’t. Here’s what I’ll be tracking next calendar year:
🇺🇸 Presidential primaries & individuals declaring candidacy, which could start happening at any time
🟦 Minnesota Special Senate race
🟦 Kentucky Governor race
🟥 Mississippi Governor race
🟥 Louisiana Governor race
NEWS: Republican Senators-elect at the Capitol for orientation. From left to right,
🟥 Barry Moore (AL)
🟥 Kevin Hern (OK)
🟥 Julia Letlow (LA)
🟥 Harriet Hageman (WY)
🟥 Andy Barr (KY)
🟥Kurt Alme (MT)
#Election2026 - SENATE COMPARISON
USPollWatch Final Senate Prediction Map by Race Rating vs. Actual Senate Results By Victory Margin. There was lots of overestimation favoring Republicans.
Iowa was rated a narrow Tossup; South Carolina was rated Lean R, and the largest miss was in Mississippi, which was rated Likely R but is now leaning Democratic during the vote count. However, Idaho was overestimated towards Democrats (the Independent.)
Despite the margins, it did correctly predict Democratic control.
This problem is widespread. Here is a map of the polls conducted in each Senate race that qualified for my average. Note that the two closest Senate races of this cycle, Louisiana and Mississippi, had zero polls at all. All projection unfortunately only relied on fundamentals. Hopefully pollsters in the future will take their surveys nationwide instead of writing any race off. This does not only impact Democrats, but could also impact future red-wave years as well. Ratings reach beyond just predictions and impact donor spending across all 50 states.
For reference, my final rating for Mississippi was 🟥 Likely R.
At some point, we have to talk about @CookPolitical and other “prognosticators” who had me and other southern candidates labeled as solid R for much of the campaign cycle. They made it much more difficult to fundraise and are part of the reason the South has been neglected for so long.
They’re only a reflection of the past and mysteriously avoid any accountability when they’re wrong. One of their “analysts” was extremely condescending to me (not Jessica) when I tried to make my pitch for why they were wrong about my rating like he knew something about MS politics when he’s never been to the Sip. This attitude hurt Jaime Davis & others so much.