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The week’s setup paints a pretty uneven picture. Heavy totals stack up in the Northwest and pockets of the East, while much of the interior stays lighter. Producers will see field progress hinge on how these local bands of moisture actually line up.
U.S. Commodities, Inc. retweeted
🇺🇸U.S. soybeans were 88% harvested as of Sunday vs USDA's five-year average of 84%. But that average includes implied 2025 data and seems understated.
Winter wheat condition debuted at 44% good/excellent, well below expectations but above the latest available five-year average.
Heavy moisture lines up for the week ahead, with the Northwest taking the brunt and widespread rain stretching east. Fieldwork pace will hinge on local totals as soils stay active.
U.S. Commodities, Inc. retweeted
USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales:
▪️1,729,740 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico; 1.135 mmt is for 2026/27 and 594kt is for 2027/28
▪️136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China in 2026/27
Feels like the pattern shifts again. The 6–10 day outlook leans drier through the Midwest and Great Lakes, while the coasts and parts of the South pick up more moisture. Early November fieldwork should move faster in the areas catching the lighter totals.
A warm stretch looks to hold on a bit longer. Most areas lean above normal in the 6–10 day window, with a pocket of near‑normal temps through the central and Southeast. Early November should stay mild, helping fieldwork move along where soils can dry.
U.S. plants can now crush 8.6 million bushels of soybeans per day. New plants have opened closer to soybean production in the Plains, but are far from where the meal is eaten in places like the Southeast.
Moisture favors a broad stretch of the central and eastern U.S. in the 6–10 day window, while the Northwest leans drier and the Southwest sits near normal. Early November could bring slower fieldwork for many areas that catch the wetter pattern.
Warmth dominates much of the country in the 6–10 day outlook, with above‑normal temperatures covering most regions. Only a small stretch in the Southwest leans near normal. Producers should expect a milder first week of November and faster field drying in many areas.
Seed market share keeps tightening across corn, soybeans, and cotton, with a handful of major companies holding most of the retail space by 2020. Fewer suppliers mean less choice for growers and more pricing power concentrated among the biggest players.
Feeder cattle imports from Mexico plunge in 2025 after NWS stops movement, then recover sharply under the baseline path, while the alternative case stays flat. A slower rebound would mean tighter U.S. supplies, firmer prices, and more beef production shifting to Mexico.
Soybeans continue to drift lower, with the chart showing a tentative five‑wave pullback and prices leaning on support near the mid‑12s. Resistance sits overhead in the 12.60–12.90 zone, while a break under recent lows could open the door toward the 12.20 area.
Rainfall builds across the Southwest and the Southeast this week, with lighter totals across the central and northern states. Most row‑crop regions stay on the drier side, while producers in coastal and desert areas may see slower field movement.
Warmth dominates most of the central and eastern U.S. heading into early November, with cooler pockets holding along the Pacific Northwest. Mild conditions should support late‑season fieldwork, while only limited chill settles into the western valleys.
Wetter chances build across the Southwest, central states, Hawaii, and parts of Alaska, while the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northeast lean drier. Most farm regions should expect mixed moisture, with some late‑month showers helping soil recharge in the southern Plains.
Drought stays widespread across the West and central states, with the harshest pockets from California through the Southwest into Texas and parts of the Midwest. Crop and pasture stress remains elevated, and long‑term moisture deficits continue across key rangeland areas.
U.S. Commodities, Inc. retweeted
USDA confirms the following sales of U.S. soybeans for delivery in 2026/27:
▪️134,000 metric tons to China
▪️165,000 metric tons to Spain
Diesel costs continue to climb nationwide, with every state showing a year‑over‑year jump. Increases run widest across the Southwest, while most other regions sit in the mid‑range. Producers should keep fuel budgets tight as fall fieldwork and hauling continue.
