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免責聲明更新： 大叔美股筆記歡迎各位投資同好共襄盛舉，為維護個人權益，在瀏覽各個投資筆記前，請先閱覽以下聲明，閱覽者將視為同意本聲明條款： 1. 大叔美股筆記對於所發表之投資筆記、分析數據及參考資料內容，其立論依據皆係合法引用自網路上公開資訊以及合法管道取得之資料，不涉及任何抄襲等侵害智慧財產權之行為;對於閱覽者將大叔美股筆記所發表之投資筆記，在未經同意下，從事行銷推廣、背書代言、營利等商業相關活動，無論是否獲利，大叔美股筆記將採取法律行動追究其責。 2. 大叔美股筆記所發表之投資筆記、分析數據及參考資料內容，不得作為任何交易之依據，閱覽者依筆記或數據資料內容進行任何投資行為所產生之風險及盈虧，未經自行了解判斷，而導致交易損失風險，應自行負擔，大叔美股筆記不對使用者之投資決策負任何責任。 3. 大叔美股筆記所發表之投資筆記對於所提及之其他個人、公司或組織，大叔美股筆記均不對其交易安全、商品及服務內容負任何擔保責任，其間之所有交易、擔保、賠償責任及售後服務皆係存在於閱覽者與商品或勞務提供者之間，閱覽者如因商品或服務提供者發生任何變故或糾紛，大叔美股筆記不負任何法律責任。 4. 大叔美股筆記中，涉及到其他個人、公司或組織之網站連結，對被連結之網站或其所提供之任何產品、服務或資訊，大叔美股筆記不擔保其正確性、真實性、即時性、及完整性。 5. 閱覽者同意由大叔美股筆記保留修改本聲明之權利，如有變更，將公佈於大叔美股筆記社群平台上，不另行通知。 Disclaimer Updates: Uncle Stock Notes welcomes all investment enthusiasts to participate. To safeguard your rights and interests, please read the following disclaimer carefully before reviewing any investment notes. By accessing or reading the content, you are deemed to have agreed to the terms set forth herein: 1. All investment notes, analytical data, and reference materials published by Uncle Stock Notes are based on legally sourced information, including publicly available online data and materials obtained through lawful channels. No infringement of intellectual property rights, including plagiarism, is involved. Any unauthorized use of Uncle Stock Notes’ content for marketing, promotion, endorsement, commercial gain, or related activities—whether for profit or not—without prior consent is strictly prohibited. Uncle Stock Notes reserves the right to take legal action against any such violations. 2. The investment notes, analytical data, and reference materials provided by Uncle Stock Notes are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as a basis for any trading decisions. Any investment actions taken by readers based on such content are undertaken at their own risk. Readers are solely responsible for any profits or losses incurred, especially where decisions are made without independent evaluation and judgment. Uncle Stock Notes assumes no responsibility or liability for any investment decisions made by users. 3. With respect to any individuals, companies, or organizations mentioned in the investment notes, Uncle Stock Notes makes no representations or warranties regarding the security of transactions or the quality of any products or services provided. All transactions, guarantees, compensation, and after-sales services are solely between the reader and the respective provider. Uncle Stock Notes shall bear no legal liability for any disputes, losses, or issues arising between readers and such third parties. 4. Any external links to websites of individuals, companies, or organizations provided within Uncle Stock Notes are for reference only. Uncle Stock Notes makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, authenticity, timeliness, or completeness of the content, products, or services offered on such linked websites. 5. Uncle Stock Notes reserves the right to amend this disclaimer at any time. Any changes will be published on its official platforms without prior notice.

AWS 執行長 Matt Garman 談到運算能力瓶頸時表示： 「整個行業都在積極擴張，我們的建設速度也非常快。目前最大的瓶頸是什麼，每天都在變化……我們如何才能讓供應商承諾未來幾年的交付？然後確保所有流程都到位，以便我們能夠高效地完成交付。” “我們最近分享過，我們每 14 秒就安裝一個加速晶片，無論是 GPU 還是 Trainium 晶片。這是一個規模龐大且速度極快的擴展。”

黑暗料理！烏骨雞

紅光滿面😎

ServiceNow $NOW 2026 年第三季財報分析 第三季每一項指標都超過了指引高端。AI 合約價值目標一年內第二次上調，生產環境中的代理式 AI 用量年增 13 倍。 但市場只看了一個數字：第四季 cRPO 成長指引只有 18.5%。股價隨即單日重挫 26.5%，蒸發約 410 億美元市值，是 2012 年上市以來最大跌幅。 但答案藏在兩個地方。 一是扣掉 Armis 和所有技術性因素後，底層 cRPO 仍在減速。二是公司開始把部分訂閱營收搬進專業服務，用虧損換取 AI 導入速度。 但大叔認為這一跌有六成是過度反應，另外四成是警訊。 unclestocknotes.substack.com…

幣安公告來自Yi He（何一） 與 CZ 是加密貨幣交易所 Binance（幣安） 的靈魂人物與長期生活伴侶。 回覆蠻專業，後面就看大家對幣安的信任度。

2026年美國期中選舉全景分析 再過三天，美國就要投票了。 市場早就替這場選舉下好注：預測市場給民主黨奪回眾院約九成的機率，參院也從「不可能」變成「很有可能」。 選舉結果固然重要，但比誰贏更重要的，是你用來判斷的數字有沒有對。 大叔分析三種選舉情境：共和黨守住兩院、國會分裂、民主黨全拿。 每種情境分別推演它對利率、美元、類股和AI產業鏈的影響，也回答很多人在問的問題：民主黨如果拿下兩院，川普會不會被第三度彈劾？ 其實被彈劾的機率不低，被免職的機率很低。對投資人來說，我們該注意是2027年那場債務上限的攻防。 #免費取閱幫助大家不要再被恐慌所影響 unclestocknotes.substack.com…

對於幣安的朋友，我表示同情。

大叔目前的想法很簡單： 先等下禮拜的期中選舉塵埃落定，再來決定下一步怎麼操作。 市場現在消息很多、波動很大，這種時候硬要每天猜上猜下，很容易把自己搞得很累。 所以先博君一笑。😂 大叔對市場的長期看法，還是維持正面。 投資這麼多年，我一直覺得真正好的機會，往往不是大家最開心的時候出現，而是在大家最害怕、最不想看的時候慢慢跑出來。 當然市場恐慌不代表看到什麼都要撿。 該看的基本面還是要看，該留的現金還是要留。 只是如果公司沒有壞、需求沒有變，價格卻因為情緒被殺下來，反而是我們應該冷靜研究的時候。 市場跌的時候，最怕的其實不是帳面變紅。而是帳面一紅，心也跟著亂掉。一亂，就容易做出原本不會做的決定。 與其整天盯著盤面，讓漲跌控制自己的心情，不如去陪陪家人、吃頓飯、運動、出去走走，或者找點自己喜歡的事情做。 市場不會因為你多看十次手機，就提早漲回來。 但是情緒可能因為你一直盯著它，把原本正確的投資計畫全部打亂。 讓自己走得久的心態，市場大漲的時候不要太興奮，市場大跌的時候也不要太絕望。 該等待的等待，該陪家人的時候就好好陪家人。機會通常都藏在恐慌裡。但你要先讓自己保持清醒，才有辦法在機會出現時，看得見，也拿得住。 加油💪

$AMZN 執行長表示，2026年現金資本支出仍預計約2,200億美元，多數投入AWS，2027年還會顯著增加。他形容新增產能幾乎一裝好就被客戶消化。當市場擔心AI支出降溫，Amazon這次給出的訊號，仍是持續擴建。(繼續燒錢） 法說另一個留意的細節：推論已占AWS AI營收一半以上，而且持續成長，公司同時也有大量訓練收入。管理層認為企業大規模使用推論仍在早期。AWS目前年化營收規模約1,840億美元；這是依近期收入換算的run rate，不能直接當成全年已實現營收，也不能把全公司的2,200億美元支出全部算成AI投資。 供應鏈可追蹤 $NVDA，以及Amazon自研Trainium相關的先進製程、封裝與伺服器需求；台積電、廣達、緯穎，以及電力與散熱設備的 $VRT、 $ETN、台達電，都是相關觀察方向。不過支出增加如何分配到GPU、自研晶片、土地、機房與電力，會決定各家實際能分到多少。 這次說法暫時沒有支持2027年支出縮手的劇本，繼續燒錢。

$AMZN’s CEO reiterated approximately $220 billion in cash capex for 2026, mostly for AWS, with spending expected to increase “meaningfully” in 2027. Customers are consuming new capacity almost as quickly as Amazon installs it. As investors debate an AI spending slowdown, Amazon’s message remains one of continued expansion. Another important detail: inference already represents well over half of AWS’s AI revenue and continues to grow, alongside substantial training revenue. Management still sees enterprise adoption of inference at scale as early. AWS is now a roughly $184 billion annualized revenue business. That run rate is not realized full-year revenue, and Amazon’s entire $220 billion company-wide investment budget should not be classified as AI spending. Supply-chain exposures to watch include $NVDA and the manufacturing, packaging and server infrastructure supporting Amazon’s Trainium chips. TSMC, Quanta and Wiwynn, alongside power and cooling suppliers $VRT, $ETN and Delta Electronics, are relevant names. Actual revenue capture depends on how Amazon allocates spending across GPUs, custom silicon, land, buildings and power infrastructure. Capacity being consumed immediately adds evidence of demand. The next question is how much cash that utilization generates. This commentary offers little support for a 2027 spending retreat, but larger investment requires closer attention to AWS growth, operating profit, free cash flow and returns on new capacity. Busy data centers are encouraging; shareholders still need the economics to work.

太好笑了

$GOOGL down 10% post-earnings, one of its worst reactions ever. But half the EPS miss was a SpaceX paper loss; operating income +30%. The real issues are two： 1. Search slowing: 19% → 17% → 12%. Queries at a 5-yr high, revenue missed. AI Mode earns less per query. 2. Cash: $51.4B capex, -$9.1B FCF, 2nd negative qtr, still issuing equity. Google is shifting from self-funded AI winner to capital-markets-funded infra builder. Highlight: Cloud doubled, 36% margin, $561B backlog. Verdict: weakened, not broken. Watch Q4 Search and 2027 capex. #GOOGL #Alphabet

Google 財報後大跌，史上最差反應之一。但 EPS miss 有一半是 SpaceX 帳面虧損，本業營業利益 +30%。真正的問題在 1. Search 減速：19% → 17% → 12%。查詢量創五年新高，營收卻 miss。AI Mode 每次查詢賺得比較少。 2. 現金流：Capex 514 億、FCF -91 億、連兩季為負，還在增發。Google 變成需要資本市場供血的基建公司。 亮點：Cloud 翻倍、利潤率 36%、積壓 5,610 億。 接下來我會持續觀察 Q4 Search 與 2027 Capex。 #GOOGL #Alphabet #美股 #大叔讀財報

hold my beer. 中文翻譯就是走開！讓專業的來。

SpaceX $SPCX 2026 年第三季財報分析 SpaceX 營收年增 161%、明年 Q1 指引比預期高六成，股價卻一週打回原形。淨利三分之一是一次性、SI 營收三分之二來自單一客戶、13 GW 要花數千億美元。好公司，但價格已經跑在前面。大叔拆給你 unclestocknotes.substack.com…

$MRVL 傳收購 $LITE(約 $830 億)。買下「光的嘴巴(雷射)」配自己的「光的大腦(DSP)」，卡住 AI 連接的咽喉。 宣布不是太大問題，但照這條件走完交割充滿變數。方向對、代價高、關卡多。 (請以正式公告為準。非投資建議。) $MRVL $LITE unclestocknotes.substack.com…

PJM, the largest US grid operator, issued a capacity advisory for Oct. 19 after more than 61,000MW of generation went offline during the previous week. Roughly 15,000MW was unplanned, leaving about 66% of the fleet available. Unseasonable warmth also triggered emergency procedures and demand response on Oct. 13–14. Reportedly, PJM had already used demand response on nine days this year, versus eight across all of 2015–2024. With approximately 11,000MW of data-center load connected, maintenance outages, unexpected failures and demand growth are making grid operations harder. One advisory does not establish a structural collapse in reserve margins, but reliable power increasingly determines when AI campuses can operate. A DOE order also authorizes PJM to direct large loads onto backup generation, potentially requiring those systems to play a more active operating role. Potential beneficiaries include $GEV and Siemens Energy in turbines and grid equipment; $BE in onsite fuel cells; $PWR and $MYRG in construction; and $ETN, $HUBB, Fortune Electric and Hitachi Energy in electrical infrastructure. $VST, $CEG and $TLN have exposure to higher capacity values, although earnings depend on plant availability, contracts and market rules. These are industry exposures; orders and deliveries still need to confirm the opportunity. A completed campus waiting for electricity keeps paying interest. Watch PJM’s winter readiness, capacity-auction rules and Reliability Backstop Procurement, scheduled to take effect Feb. 28, 2027. Equipment lead times, residential-bill backlash and large-load tariffs can all change project returns. The stronger projects will secure power on schedule and establish clearly who pays for it.

美國最大電網營運商PJM在10/19發布容量警示，前一週逾61,000MW機組停機，其中約15,000MW屬非預期停機，整體僅約66%機組可用。10/13–14也因異常暖天啟動緊急程序、要求用戶減少用電。據報導，今年截至10/14已動用九天需求反應，超過2015–2024十年間合計八天，秋季供電壓力值得留意。 PJM已有約11,000MW資料中心負載接入，機組維修、突發停機與新增需求碰在一起，讓供電調度更吃緊。單次警報還不能直接證明備轉容量已「結構性崩潰」，但AI機房確實需要把供電可靠度放進建設時程。DOE命令也授權PJM要求大型用戶轉用備援發電，代表備援設備可能需要更頻繁地承擔實際供電任務。 受惠方向包括燃氣渦輪與電網設備的$GEV、Siemens Energy，現場燃料電池的$BE，電網工程的$PWR、$MYRG，以及電力設備的$ETN、$HUBB、華城與Hitachi Energy。$VST、$CEG、$TLN 則有容量價值提升的潛力，但實際收益仍看可用機組、既有合約與市場規則。這些是產業曝險方向，還需要訂單與交付來驗證。 機房蓋好，電卻還在排隊，利息可不會跟著暫停。接下來看PJM冬季準備、容量拍賣，以及預定2027/2/28生效的可靠度補充採購機制。設備交期、居民電費反彈與大型用戶費率，都可能改變投資回報；能按時接電、又說清楚誰付帳的項目，才更有競爭力。

Barclays strategist Alex Altmann estimates that the AI ecosystem will generate roughly 75% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2027, with semiconductors supplying about two-thirds of that contribution—roughly half of total index earnings growth. This is a strategist’s forecast, but it highlights the concentration: weaker AI spending could affect index-wide EPS, alongside technology valuations. Funding conditions are increasingly separating borrowers. Barclays expects $1.1 trillion in combined net investment-grade and high-yield issuance this year, with AI companies competing for finite capital. Against a roughly 5% Treasury yield, CoreWeave bond yields are near 15%. Cipher’s $850 million convertible offering coincided with a 12.8% share decline. Large hyperscalers retain financing advantages; smaller compute providers face a much higher hurdle. Watch whether that gap widens. Alphabet’s annual capex guidance stands at $195–205 billion, while Meta’s is $135–145 billion, leaving substantial opportunities across the supply chain. $NVDA, $AVGO and $AMD provide accelerators and custom silicon; $TSM supplies advanced manufacturing and CoWoS. $ANET, $CLS, Wiwynn and Quanta offer networking and server exposure, while $VRT and $ETN supply cooling and electrical equipment. Revenue capture still depends on contract awards and delivery schedules. If AI supplies three-quarters of next year’s index earnings growth, index investors also need to understand who finances it. Altmann’s observation that near-term token spending has begun to level off deserves attention. Watch 2027 hyperscaler budgets, free cash flow and AI credit spreads—especially any spending cuts. Eventually, revenue and cash generation must carry more of the load. Even strong borrowers cannot depend indefinitely on the next financing round.