@Uncrewed

Writer of Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. DM's are open! (He/Him)

 Burbank, IL
uncrewed.substack.com/
Joined February 2014
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5.6KMedia
Since today is the start of Black History Month, here's a map of the black population of the United States by County. You can definitely spot the outline of the southern "black belt" here that stretches from Louisiana and Arkansas to Virginia.
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In order to flip the Nevada State Senate, the Republicans are going to need a clean sweep of #SD08, #SD09, & #SD12 in suburban Las Vegas. These are very competitive districts, but with the environment, it's not good for the GOP. SLEW RATINGS: Safe D (9 & 12), Likely D (8)
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🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 I wrote about the top 20 strangest state legislative races in 2026: 10 crazy, 10 interesting. Arrested incumbents, write-ins, party-switchers, slurs, pedophiles, Nazis, and more. Our best article of 2026. Enjoy! projects.statenavigate.com/f…

The 20 strangest state legislative races of 2026

Party switches. Arrested incumbents. And of course, write-ins.

projects.statenavigate.com
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Oh, so the guy behind the Talarico mental hospital story actually follows me on here, so I hope he actually sees this post. *clears throat* Dude, you have to be a dumbass to think that anyone who has more than two working brain cells would believe whatever BS you posted
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We might have actually hit peak stupidity with this one folks. Like, pack it in for this year, there's no way we're topping the levels of idiocy on display here. Then again, this is the Republican Party and Apartheid Diamond Man is boosting it, so it can always get worse!
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If the Democrats want to stop the Republicans from a supermajority in Nebraska, they need to hold on to all of their seats and flip one of three districts in suburban Omaha, #SD04, #SD12, or #SD18. All are very competitive, so it's possible! SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (FLIP) (ALL)
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Here is a map of the 1994 Washington D.C, mayoral election by precinct and while the republican lost it by a margin of roughly 14, it is still the closest a republican has ever gotten to winning a D.C. Mayoral Election.
privatize social security@MakeUSAVATOct 10
Got it. went to GWU archives.
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The Montana Democrats have a clear top target this year in the State Senate, #SD29 in Park County/eastern Bozeman. This district not only backed Harris by 2 and Tester by 12, but has no Republican incumbent running thanks to term limits! SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)
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The Missouri Democrats are hoping to expand their Senate caucus this year by flipping #SD30, an open, Trump+2 seat covering Springfield. The Dems have a good candidate in State Rep Betsy Fogle, but the GOP does as well in State Rep Melanie Stinnett. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
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The Minnesota Democrats are hoping to win back an ancestrally Democratic district in the heart of the Iron Range in #HD7B next month. It's a Trump+9 district, but elected a Democratic State Rep back in 2022! SLEW RATING: Lean R
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🚨NEW PENNSYLVANIA POLL🚨 PA SD-46 (Trump +28) State Senate 🔴Camera Bartolotta (R) [inc] 43% 🟢Jodi Borello (IND) 43% ⚪️Undecided 14% Governor 🔵Josh Shapiro (D) [inc] 51% 🔴Stacy Garrity (R) 42% ⚪️Undecided 7% articles.statenavigate.com/p…

Can the Democrats’ Dan Osborn Strategy Work on the State Legislative Level?

Democrats’ Dan Osborn strategy isn’t just limited to US Senate races: they’re trying it at the state legislative level this year, too. Can it work?

articles.statenavigate.com
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After losing #HD27 to a Turning Point USA activist in 2024, the Michigan Democrats are hoping that a more favorable environment will lead to them flipping back this downriver district. They have their former State Rep here (Jaime Churches) running! SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
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🚨NEW VERMONT POLL🚨 GOVERNOR 🔴Phil Scott (R) [inc] 46% 🔵Amanda Janoo (D) 43% 🟢3rd Parties: 4% ⚪️Undecided 8% LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR 🔵Molly Gray (D) 59% 🔴Phil Scott (R) [inc] 32% ⚪️Undecided 9% n=948 | ±3.2 MoE articles.statenavigate.com/v…
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Massachusett's #HD8thBristol was a bit of a clustertruck back in 2024. Despite Trump winning it by 12 points, the Democrats held this open seat thanks to three Independents taking over 30% of the vote. This year, it's a 1 vs 1, Democrat vs Republican battle SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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🚨NEW POLL🚨 IA SD-35 (Trump +21) Standard Weighting 🔵Zimmer 46% (incumbent) 🔴Stutting 43% 🔵Sand 47% 🔴Stutting 42% Weighting with 2024 Recall 🔴Stutting 47% 🔵Zimmer 45% (incumbent) 🔴Stutting 45% 🔵Sand 45% articles.statenavigate.com/i…

A Canary in the Cornfields: Is Polling Underestimating Iowa Republicans?

We polled the first district to flip to Democrats at the state legislative level during Trump’s second term. It may serve as a warning for polling accuracy in Iowa this year.

articles.statenavigate.com
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Pritzker+20, Stratton+13, Kwame+14, Alexi+18, Croke+11 And Trump underwater 33-61. Yeah, Republicans are cooked in Illinois next month. nitter.cf/PollTracker2024/status…
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 6
PPP poll | 9/30-10/1 Illinois statewide races 2026 Illinois Governor 🟦JB Pritzker 54% (incumbent) 🟥Darren Bailey 34% ⬜️Collin Corbett 6% —— US Senate 🟦Juliana Stratton 49% 🟥Don Tracy 36%
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Anybody with a working brain cell could tell you that running Darren Bailey a second time was a terrible idea. The one good thing he had going for him in 2022 (Uihlein money) is just not there this year, so now he's just a right-winger without money that's poison in the suburbs
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The Maryland Democrats are targeting #LD04 in suburban Frederick next month. They have the opportunity to flip 3 House seats and the Senate seat here. With a strong Democratic top of the ticket, it's possible! SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (2/3 House Seats), Lean R (1 House Seat/Senate)
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🚨@StateNavigate POLLS🚨 WV SD-1 (Trump +39) 🔴Chapman 48% 🔵Fluharty 43% Trump Net Approval +2 Morrisey Approval Even WV SD-8 (Trump +27) 🔴Wheeler 46% 🔵Hundley 40% Trump Net Net Approval -7 Morrisey Net Approval -30 articles.statenavigate.com/w…

State Navigate Polls Show Republican Advantages in Competitive State Senate Races

Democrats in the West Virginia Senate are hoping a blue wave will help them claw back ground. Our polls and forecasts see that as an unlikely outcome.

articles.statenavigate.com
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Over in Maine's #HD44, the Independent incumbent there is term-limited. This should mean the Republicans are favored to flip this Trump+5 district right? Well, another Independent is running and getting a lot of the same support the outgoing incumbent got. SLEW RATING: Lean Ind
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The state legislative implications of a close Phil Scott race are obviously really bad for Republicans. They broke the House supermajority and nearly flipped the Senate in 2024 thanks to Scott's landslide win. This year? Expect a lot of seats to flip blue nitter.cf/ChazNuttycombe/status/…
Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombeOct 4
We've reached more 18-29 and non-college voters in our poll today and this is looking more like a Tilt R/Toss-Up race than Lean R. Final results will be slightly different but pretty similar, out Tuesday AM. VT-GOV is definitely competitive. projects.statenavigate.com/i…
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