Distressed PE Investor, previously BB IB DM for partnerships! Page sponsored by: https://nitter.cf/t.co/m0dUn8aOUy
Joined January 2021
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It’s funny because we said 3 months ago the future hedge fund analyst job will be to collect esoteric information
This is another step forward to automate that part of the job
My theory is that relationships and access to semi-private information will be all the alpha up for grabs in a few years
🤝 Paid partnership
This is an insane invention.
I wonder what adoption of this is going to look like. Are people typing enough on their own for this to be worth or is AI writing taking over?
Back in the day, a 150 WPM typing speed was an actual skill…
The degree of technological progress continues to be exponential.
Imagine telling your grandparents that not only would we have computers that connect you with anyone in the world…but you don’t even need to manually type, but your mind can do that automatically.
Just keeps getting better!
Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon says he’s “not concerned about the durability and sustainability of AI. It's going to be deployed in an enormous application layer in business and enterprise and a whole variety of ways, but it's going to take 10, 20, 30 years to really appreciate the impact of all this.”
“Theer is more demand for compute right now than there is compute. There is expectation of a very significant buildout, whether we're going to spend 5 or 10 trillion dollars. There will be acceleration and pullbacks.”
“One thing that's going on in the market that's creating volatility is people trying to understand: What is the right way for development? What is the pace for development? Where are the best opportunities?”
“As the cost of capital goes it changes people's views: a lot of capital creates competition for capital cost and goes up, interest rates have gone up too.”
This comes when the Nasdaq and AI adjacent stocks are being hit heavy during the end of this week.
Life as an LP is a pretty underrated gig. (Endowment, foundation, family office, etc)
The hours are not demanding at all and you get to be in the room with some of the most talented investors in the world (where they're the ones sucking up to you).
I had a friend who worked at a University Endowment right out of College. The downside is that at the Junior level, pay is pretty shit.
At the senior level they can get paid extraordinarily well.
Go ahead and look at the compensation for the CIO/MDs at your alma maters endowment and see for yourself.
The US Treasury is borrowing like someone who keeps rolling over a short-term loan, while companies are borrowing like they’ve locked in a 30-year mortgage.
According to Apollo, bonds the Treasury issued this year have an average maturity of just 1.7 years. For US companies, it’s 9.8 years.
Apollo says one reason is that companies are building data centers, power plants and factories that last for decades, so they want debt that lasts just as long. Insurers and pension funds have obligations that stretch out for decades too, so lending long to those companies suits them.
Was speaking with a friend in the creative industry and he was telling me how the market is actually really bifurcated.
Solo/independent designers got absolutely cooked; their customers are individuals/SMBs who are just using the new technology, so business has evaporated.
On the flip side, large agencies/companies are killing it as they are able to take on much more work and enterprise customers are much stickier.
Quitting your PE job for an operating role isn't always as attractive as it seems:
> You grind 4 years in banking/PE
> Think you know how to operate a company
> End up getting buried in work, the company is disorganized
> Founders are young and dumb
> Poor talent
> 1 week away from blowing up
In reality, jobs in high finance are INCREDIBLY organized due to the people the career attracts.
Operating a company is messy.
Just heard a story from a Partner at my firm and can't tell if it's real or complete BS.
Back about 9 years ago a friend of his worked at an investment bank in with a big Chicago presence.
In a group with a pretty rowdy/fratty reputation, going out on Fridays was pretty much mandatory for interns wanting a return.
One night, one of the associates brings them to a bar, buys em drinks, the works.
After, he brings them over to some harbor by the Lakefront. Makes them all jump in. Completely safe as long as they know how to swim.
One of the kids calls up his Mom and tells her what happened. Not sure if it was to snitch or just telling her about how his Summer was going.
His Mom gets in touch with the bank somehow, HR investigates, and that associate along with the staffer (who encouraged it) got fired.
Wonder where that kid is now.
Jeffrey Gundlach on AI backed loans: “The market isn't accepting the ratings being put on these AI businesses.”
“Spreads are widening on lower quality credit. The BBB index is at a price of $65 which is down 18% on just a price basis.”
“The huge issuance by AI and AI adjacent types of business have not been well received by the bond market. They come out at a certain rating that immediately gets questioned by the market.”
He cites recent examples like SpaceX. “SpaceX came in at BBB and immediately widened to a junk bond type of spread. Then, Oracle came out at BBB- which is not being embraced by the market because it's trading like a single B- company based on the spread that it's at.”
“This reminds me of the way the market started to behave regarding BBB supreme back in 2006 and 2007 where there's a little crisis of confidence on how rating agencies in the private credit related areas are leaning on these IG ratings that the market doesn't think are real.”
“All spreads are widening, even asset backed securities, commercial mortgage backed securities, IG spreads.”
Gundlach believes this is the beginning of a trend, not just a bump in the road.
PM: this is who you are trading against
Analyst: Boss, he does not understand stocks, what do you mean
PM: exactly, go make me some money
You aren’t buying Google at 10% off tomorrow.
You’re buying a 3.5 trillion company that is up 100% over the last 18 months and directly tied to the incoming AI meltdown.
With its core business getting eaten alive. I haven’t used google search in 6 months and YouTube has turned into TikTok garbage.
Very bearish.
The GLP-1 Trade:
If you thought it was just coming for fast food, you're wrong.
The sleep industry is next.
An experimental weight-loss drug slashed breathing interruptions during sleep so dramatically that one in four non-diabetic patients saw their sleep apnea completely disappear.
Retatrutide, an investigational GLP-1 by Eli Lilly, improved more than 50% of obstructive sleep apnea symptoms in 68% of participants over 80 weeks, according to a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Researchers say the results could reduce reliance on CPAP machines, which remain the frontline treatment for the condition that affects over 50 million Americans — 80% of whom are undiagnosed.
Full story here foxnews.com/health/weight-lo…
Was talking with one of the new associates at my firm about networking and he told me that he deleted every single one he got when he was a banker after his first few months.
Said they were a genuine waste of his time and he would just find himself in a bad mood every time and be a dick to the kids calling.
Really nice guy otherwise but he said he didn't want to ruin kids perspective of the career.
Wouldn't call that ruining it, more of a reality check but to each their own.
Apollo’s Marc Rowan when asked about Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion valuation:
“There’s no right price whether we're talking about Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX. We’re talking about companies that are literally changing the world and whose business models are not predictable at this point.”
“In the public market, everyone has to buy you. We saw it with SpaceX, $1 trillion+ in the private markets, $2 trillion as it went public, $3 trillion as people filled out their position, and ultimately settled into whatever valuation is going to have. Something tells me we will see the same phenomenon with Anthropic.”
“This will lead to further concentration. 10 companies are 50% of the S&P. All 10 are leveraged to the same trend.”
“We have this notion that because it’s public is safe, so far it has been a good thing for investors, whether that continues to be the case or not remains to be seen.”
Life at a sweaty UMM/MF PE shop as a first year.
So bad that he's now on medical leave.
> Extremely lean deal team
> Managed by a difficult to work with associate (micromanagement, poor communication, unrealistic deadlines)
> Working until 4-5 am or simply pulling an all-nighter
> Significant weekend hours
> From the first week, told to underreport on your timesheet (lol)
> Multiple doctors recommended he take time off, now on medical leave
> Still in your first year so its difficult to lateral
Sounds like he's going to have to stick it out for at least a year.
Never thought I'd see someone go on the IR in Finance.
He ended up getting fired over this. Didn't matter cause he was on his way out to go to Carlyle anyway
Throwback to this hilarious 2015 email Barclay's Power & Utilities sent out to their incoming intern class:
Barclays Power & Utilities: Welcome to the Jungle
The Ten Commandments for Wall Street Interns
Incoming Intern Class of 2015, Welcome to Power! I am sure you are all busy at training, but in the interest of helping your transition into the summer, and hopefully helping some of you secure Full-Time offers, I wanted to introduce you to the 10 Power Commandments. Respect them, love them, live them.
You may have heard different stories about Barclays Power – go on WSO and you’ll see us called the “frattiest group”, “top Power group on the street”, or the group with the “best PE placement” – needless to say we are a unique group at Barclays. And with that come unique rules.
For 9 weeks you will live and die by these:
1. Our group dresses very conservatively. Given that it is summer, no socks is accepted and, in fact, encouraged. (Men: On your first day at the desk, it is customary to wear a bowtie and/or suspenders).
2. Remember: this is a summer internship for a full-time offer. It won’t be easy. If you can’t handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.
3. We expect you to be the last ones to leave every night…no matter what. That’s what good summer analysts do. (Also getting in earlier than me would be a power move – You should enjoy your casual 9:15AM PT arrival time this Friday, but I wouldn’t get used to it).
4. During your first few weeks we ask that you direct all of your questions to Michael Lomio. Tell the other summers too, Michael is industry agnostic. If you ask me a question it will be noted.
5. Never take your jacket off at work. This is investment banking, ladies and gentlemen. Other groups may be more liberal when it comes to summer dress code, unfortunately were not
6. You will be assigned junior “mentors”. It is much appreciated if you would bring breakfast in for your respective “mentor.” Some people are more particular about this than others.
7. I recommend bringing a pillow to the office (yoga mat works as well). It makes sleeping under your desk alot more comfortable, in the very likely scenario that you have to do that.
8. You are expected to allocate at least half your seamless web order for group appetizers/snacks for the month of June. No questions asked. Once the 2nd years leave, you can enjoy your $25 allocations.
9. Have a spare tie/scarf or two around. You never know when your associate will run out of napkins.
10. When you need to leave your desk there will be a sign out sheet outside your cubes. Please fill it out including where you went and for how long. This is important come the end of your internship.
I hope it is clear from the rules above that the internship really is a 9-week commitment at the desk. You are here with the sole goal to impress the group enough to receive a FT offer.
During my summer in the group an intern asked our staffer for a weekend off for a family reunion – he was told he could go. He was also asked to hand in his blackberry and pack up his desk.
Some of you have asked for training materials to study up on before you start. Love the enthusiasm. First, I would recommend reading the GS Elevator twitter feed for some social cues. It might be seen as a joke to some people, but around here I think many people find it insightful.
Second, I have attached a fairly simple LBO for Staples. Understand this will be a bit tough for some of you without a Finance / UG business degree, but we believe in you. There’s a reason each of you was picked for the group. We expect you to give this your best shot and send us a completed LBO model with a short write up by Friday end of day. None of you will have this 100% correct, that’s expected. We also still expect you to complete a significant portion of it.
Welcome to the big leagues, boys and girls. Play time is over and it’s time to buckle up. Once you hit the desk, your lives will be your work for 9 weeks.
Please respond promptly to acknowledge you’ve received this e-mail (anytime in the next half hour would be fine) and to confirm that you are onboard for the summer. We know you have access to e-mail, so there’s no way to avoid this. If I remember correctly, you are probably doing training with Sean Clovey from IT, or Market Mark from TTS.
Other than that, I look forward to meeting you all, and I hope you’re excited to join the group! We sure are looking forward to having you here!
Yours Truly,
Justin
P.S. There are a number of typos in place in the email above. These are on purpose. First person to email me back with at least 3 highlighted typos is off to a GREAT start!
I’ve said before that the analyst job will move toward collecting information other people don’t have
But now you have AI interviewing ~40 physicians in a week.
Even that part is getting automated faster than I expected
My guess is knowing what to ask, and who to ask it to, becomes a much bigger part of the job
I’ve said before that the analyst job will move toward collecting information other people don’t have
But now you have AI interviewing ~40 physicians in a week.
Even that part is getting automated faster than I expected
My guess is knowing what to ask, and who to ask it to, becomes a much bigger part of the job
🤝 Paid partnership
