Value Seeker

URANIUM MINERS VS OIL PRODUCERS I have explained in a recent article (below) why did I rebalance from oil producers (taking profits on a large part of my position) to uranium miners, which strongly corrected in 2026. Fast forward to today, uranium miners have already outperformed oil producers by 11%, as the URNM-to-XLE ratio shows. Indeed, being an energy bull, I however know that while most energy source follow relatively similar long-term cycles, they may diverge over the short- to medium-term. Here is why I do not hesitate to take profits on recent winners (oil producers in that moment) to allocate additional funds to laggards whose upside potential remains important (uranium miners here). $URNM and $XLE used as proxies here.

ORANGE JUICE Slightly up since my last post, orange juice is still trading 1 standard deviation below its long-term trend. While it happens to bottom -1.5σ below trend, its current behavior (converging MACD, now almost positive) lets me think that a bottom may not happen that low this time. It may already be in. $DBA $OJ

NICKEL PRODUCERS VS COPPER MINERS After having reached a very oversold level, the nickel-producers-to-copper-miners ratio has been consolidating for a few months on its long-term support. Such setup already happened twice in the past, preceding a new period of outperformance for nickel producers relative to copper miners. From here, reaching its next resistance would imply a +260% outperformance for solana:HBdKuRvRrJcbUGxxNfh622zJPrhpJF6q24Udeubmpump relative to $COPX .

SMALL-CAPS - STILL CHEAP Small-caps remains undervalued relative to large ones, as this small-to-large-caps ratio shows. Indeed, trading almost 2 standard deviations below its long-term trend, the ratio suggests that small-caps offer the best risk-reward. While from here getting back to its long-term trend would imply a 37% outperformance for small-caps, reaching tis former top level (+1.5σ) would bring it to 70%. $IWM

COPPER - RE-TEST COMING? Copper’s momentum seems to lack strength, what could trigger a slight correction bringing it back to its former resistance recently broken. Such price movement is common, and even healthy, indicating the absence of hype (i.e. irrational exuberance) for this long-term investment case. This is exactly in those moments that rebalancing adds value. $COPX $CPER

BASIC MATERIAL VS OIL PRODUCERS The basic-materials-producers-to-oil-producers ratio has most likely made a bottom 1 standard deviation below its long-term trend. From this level, while reaching the ratio's long-term trend would imply a 26% outperformance for basic materials producers, overshooting to reach +1σ would bring this outperformance to 55% outperformance. Likely a good time to rebalance. $IYM and $XLE used as proxies.

MAKING SENSE OF THIS MARKET SELL-OFF Nasdaq down 6.5% in a day, worries about earnings’ sustainability... Are fears justified? How could investors stay exposed while improving their portfolio’s risk-reward? Summary: • Elevated and rising earnings - Sustainable? • Valuation multiples still matter. • A simple alternative. Link in description below ↓ $VOO $IWM $RSP

CAD VS USD The USDCAD pair is still trading in the higher end of its long-term cycle. Indeed, the US Dollar is sill trading at a 19% premium over its purchasing power parity with the US Dollar. Now trading above its 90th percentile, a reversion to its 25th percentile would imply a 26% appreciation for the Canadian Dollar. As the 5-year Canadian government bond yields 1.3% less than the US one, the total return in case of return to the above level in a 5-year time would be about 18%: • -6.5% due to interest rate differential. • +26% due to FX gains. Remember that we are speaking here about relative returns, not absolute. So this additional return would come on top of the market one. $USDCAD

US DOLLAR As the DXY is trading at a 25% premium over its purchasing power parity, its risk-reward remains negative over the medium- to long-term. Only the momentum is currently missing. When the down move is in, assets such as EMs, commodities, and US exporters should greatly benefit from the situation. $DXY $EURUSD $USDJPY

GOLD VS SILVER With an gold-to-silver ratio at 78, silver seems to be a bigger bargain than gold. So, those alternating between the two could choose to overweight silver at the moment, whose risk-reward has become more attractive than gold’s. $SIL $GDX