人类的进化史就是两件事:烧开水+庞氏资金局。
Joined December 2024
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事实上，如果你是美国普通老百姓，如果没有炒股，压根就不会对这些寡头拼命借贷到处瞎几把乱建的LLM数据中心有好感，破坏你的生活环境，拉高你的生活通胀，抢走你的工作，借你的养老金搞基建，最后泡沫破裂了还要你的税金搞救助，坏处都塞给你好处都归他们，我认为这将越来越成为一股不可忽略的真实民意风向。
🚨 CONGRESS IS NOW DISCUSSING WHAT HAPPENS IF MAJOR AI COMPANIES GO BANKRUPT.
House Democrats have introduced a resolution calling for AI companies to receive ZERO taxpayer funded bailouts if they collapse.
AI spending by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta and SpaceX is expected to top $7 trillion from 2025 to 2030, per S&P.
Big Tech is expected to borrow a record $420 billion in 2027 alone.
Now, lawmakers are discussing what should happen if those massive investments go wrong.
The resolution calls for:
• No taxpayer funded bailouts for failing AI companies.
• No emergency loans, cash injections or debt guarantees from the Fed, Treasury or FDIC.
• Failed AI companies to go through normal bankruptcy proceedings.
• Executives responsible for reckless or illegal conduct to face accountability.
• Government support to protect workers and retirement savings instead of corporate executives.
The resolution is not legally binding, and it does not mean lawmakers know an AI crash is coming.
But it shows the risk is now being taken seriously in Congress.
And there is a reason to pay attention.
AI companies are spending enormous amounts of money today based on expectations of future demand and profits.
If those expectations fail, the damage could spread beyond AI companies to banks, lenders and investors financing the expansion.
高盛在本月早些时候的一份报告中表示，今年美元投资级债券发行额已超过 1.5 万亿美元，这使得 2026 年有望打破疫情时代之前的纪录性暴增。该行此前预计全年总额为 2.1 万亿美元，但现在认为这个数字可能过于保守。平均交易规模为 17 亿美元，是后危机时代最大的。这包括至少 20 笔公告规模达 100 亿美元或以上的交易——高盛将其描述为‘巨型’交易。整个 2025 年，这样的交易仅有 12 笔，从 2022 年到 2024 年，总共也只有 15 笔。
Yeah，that's what I meant.LLM业绩增长已正式进入万亿美元债务驱动增量的时代，社融供给能力已逼近极限，我不认为明年还能再从底裤里变魔术一样再多掏出一万亿增量债务借给他们做业绩。
Bloomberg: "Early signs suggest that the credit market is approaching the limits of how much more debt it can absorb. One after another, yields are soaring into the double digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Bankers are finding it more difficult to offload risk to insurers and other investors...With those jitters growing louder each week — and spurring, in turn, angst about the potential economic fallout — Citadel Securities is cautioning clients that even the biggest names in tech could get ensnared as they put their balance sheets behind scores of projects critical to their AI ambitions."
Years ago, I was debating the implications of the COVID outbreak with a client at 13D and I was expressed concerns about debt sustainability when he told me: "Never underestimate how much money there is in the world." That's stuck with me since and puts into perspective the extraordinary scale of AI buildout ambitions, which are running into the limits of what capital markets can provide. As I warned in my September report on "The AI Trade" (sageroadresearch.com/product…):
"In the first five months of this year, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle borrowed as much as they had in the five years prior. Morgan Stanely expects AI-related debt issuance to top $570 billion this year, more than double any previous record. Just for a bit more context about the scale of the borrowing binge, here’s an FT recap of Goldman analysis:
'The numbers are just bonkers. Goldman Sachs said in a note earlier this month that US dollar investment-grade issuance had already exceeded $1.5 trillion so far this year, which put 2026 on track to beat the previous record-breaking blowout from the pandemic era. The bank had previously penciled in a total of $2.1 trillion for the whole of this year but now it thinks that may be looking too cautious. The average deal size is $1.7 billion, the biggest in the post-crisis era. This includes at least 20 deals at $10 billion or more at announcement—a size it describes as “jumbo”. (I’m old enough to remember when “jumbo” transactions were $1 billion or more, so thank you Goldman for making me feel ancient.) In the whole of 2025, there were just 12 deals on this scale and from 2022 to 2024, there were 15 in total.'
Market participants remain complacent about tech giants continuing to borrow at the rate they’re borrowing if borrowing costs keep rising. And if tech giants begin to pull back from the debt binge, it’ll ripple far beyond the bond market, through to everything from equities to consumer spending."
各新云老云，都以类似的表外主体，设计了特殊spv进行了大量社会融资，这些融资支撑了nvda博通之类及其上游内存cpu光通信的半导体短期繁荣，所以ant及open ai不只是代表他们自己，他们合计高达上万亿美元的算力远期合同支撑了同样万亿美元级别的社融杠杆，他们的收入增速放缓意味着什么？意味着万亿美元级别的社会融资失去了锚点，这才是关键！
博通近期的630亿美元融资结构更是说明了这个问题，银行及黑石等为 SPV 提供融资，SPV 购买博通芯片和网络设备，再出租给 Ant并由Ant 来分期租赁付款。这些信贷驱动的收入增长在博通账上你能和其他正常收入分开么？你能分得清现在的AI繁荣，有多少比例是信贷驱动的，还是真正的底层客户需求驱动的？