Al Conway

The BNSF cut rates yesterday $500/car = 13.5 ct/bu. Unless basis collapses, HRW cash values are now at DVE. Why is KCBT spreads so weak today?

The June 1 wheat stocks were lower than expected and almost all of the drawdown was in HRW stocks. Our estimate post report verse pre-report, HRW down 25-30 mbu, SRW unchanged, SWW down 5-10 mbu, HRS unchanged and Dur +2.

Why is KCBT warehouseman bidding +5 ct/bu KWN3 delivered to Hutchinson and Salina, Kansas for HRW, for June/July delivery? Delivery is -9 and -12 ct/bu, plus 8 ct/bu load out. #wheat

The trade had been excited about two HRW CCC tenders, 91 kmt March 20-30 on Feb 1 and 134 kmt Apr 10-20 shipment on Feb 7. USDA cancelled last nights HRW tender for 91 kmt, putting pressure on KCBT.

Weekly inspections uncovered 2.5 mbu SWW to China from unknown destinations.#wheat

The average winter wheat acreage planted trade estimate is 1.0-1.4 mln acres too low, in our opinion.#wheat

USDA lowering SRW exports 10 mbu & increase HRW and HRS each 5 mbu. USDA is too low on SRW domestic use & should adjust in January after Dec 1 stocks. SRW domestic is not down 29 mbu this year, it is feeding and blended into HRW & HRS grists and exports.

US wheat export sales were only 189 kmt, but there were 65 kmt SWW to China and 50 kmt HRW to Iraq, neither were expected. #wheat

Viterra (after buying Gavilon) flexing their muscles in the US market with deliveries of wheat in MGEX and KCBT. Perhaps redelivery of receipts in CME as well. They would have pulled in $75-$100 mln of cash, verse holding hedged stocks.

Matif is coming off after missing Algeria business. Perhaps it can drop enough to capture something after the fact? $368/mt C&F, how much did Algeria buy and from whom? Russian players won't share.

Nice rain event in some isolated areas. Similar amount forecast in 6-10 per Global Weather

The bottom in the wheat market was made during the 2 combined weeks of export sales, August 18-25 with 1.0 mmt of wheat sales: HRW 257 kmt, SRW 267 km, HRS 200 kmt, SWW 267 kmt. Since, TTl sales week ended Sep 1, 193 kmt, ended Sep 8 217 kmt.#wheat

KWU2-KWZ2 traded to 12.75 ct/bu inverse. KWU2-WU2 traded to 105.75 ct/bu.

Egypt's supply minister says their wheat reserves will last 7.2 months. This suggest they will tender soon, in my opinion.

Has anyone see the Poll estimates for Friday's WASDE? How does USDA handle at 10-15 mmt increase in Russian wheat production & 10-12+ mmt decrease in EU corn production?

USDA announced a CCC tender for Ethiopia on Aug 10: Shpt 9/7-10 105.9 kmt HRW + 14.1 kmt Milo; Shpt 10/5-15 88.6 kmt HRW + 23.9 kmt milo. HRW is ordinary protein & should support cash basis & KCBT U-Z.

Wheat export sales were poor, however 70 kmt SWW to Indonesia & 65 kmt SWW in unknown (China vessel size) were unexpected. SWW harvest reporting record yields & all WW estimated 300 mbu vs USDA 286 mbu.

Be careful to check dates on #wheattour22, don't get HRW & HRS confused.

eatc-group.com/ Egyptian African Company doesn't look like a grain importer or exporter. Thanks to WASDA for hunting this down.