PlanA

My calculated range for @variational_io points at TGE: Variational holds $855M OI, 4th highest of perpDEX. It does that on $16.78B monthly volume, which ranks far lower. Below is the Volume-to-OI ratio: ➥ Variational: 19.6x ➥ Hyperliquid: 18.7x ➥ Lighter: 49x Variational and Hyperliquid both sit near 19x which is consistent with held positions + directional conviction. Now the points supply: 1. 3M retroactive drop at the Dec 17 launch 2. ~22 weeks since at a verified 150K/week 3. ~6.4M outstanding today Polymarket puts TGE at ~82% before 2026 end, most likely Q4. That's after the points program finishes, so the final count would be near 9.25M. Docs confirm 50% goes to community, but that bucket includes revenue sharing + LP incentives. I anchored to Lighter, the closest comp, which sent 25% of supply to points holders. At a 25% tranche and ~9.25M points: ➥ Bull: ~$108/point @ $4B FDV ➥ Base: ~$68/point @ $2.5B FDV ➥ Bear: ~$35/point @ $1.3B FDV Market base ($650M FDV) is pricing points below ~$18/point right now. The market isn't at the bear case, it's under it. A re-rate might be coming.