Famous Market Adage:
When Cold Blood Shiller is tweeting bullish Tesla charts, it’s time to touch grass
Yes it was precisely here where he got the entirety of CT to buy the “breakout”
$NVDA $TSLA
Alright, another leg down precipitated by the Blue Owl - Oracle data centre headline.
Not ideal as I started averaging yesterday, but I picked up a second tranche here. Lower average now. Very binary outcome for rest of week.
What’s interesting is similar to this time last year— Tesla was ripping which put a drag on NVDA. With all of crypto Twitter piled into the former, it would make sense it tops out around here. The thesis is this will give oxygen back to the NVDA trade. It literally topped out in 12/17 last year…
Blindly hoping for a reversal cause Tesla may be topping also isn’t wise— need a firm catalyst for NVDA (this might be later Q1 via Blackwell success and I’ll be happy to buy $155 NVDA).
Again, this is about as speculative as it gets, NVDA is below daily trend, POC, etc. and counter trend lev should be sized accordingly. History often rhymes, but it doesn’t have to repeat and while this is an interesting observation, that doesn’t mean I won’t get ran over on this trade. It’s a schizo setup that I’ll be happy to lose on.
Implications of a potential top?
Well, healthcare up has been a risk-off phenomena as of late…
Could this mean a risk-on bounce is in store? Perhaps
My primary move was to simply TP a lot of the defensive / broadening stuff I was hiding out in, given it’s worked so well.
But I fear *if* this sell-off does continue, it will broaden out outside of tech, and rising correlations could hit the safety trades.
OR
We get a risk on bounce which could also whack the defensives everyone is hiding out in.
Mostly just vibes. Maybe reading too much into it, but it’s parabolic lately, and Elon Musk is quote tweeting LLY’s own CEO pumping the stock
“I’m personally watching for an October 2023 redux where IWM popped and outperformed QQQ by over 10% in 5 weeks out of the yields blowoff”
+11% over 3 weeks
Pico’d that
They didn’t see it at 30K NQ on Wednesday… most finally saw it at 28k NQ on Friday
Little late (locally)?
Chart says revert, headlines obviously say continuation down
tbd
I had a follower make an astute point that this should also apply to hype
It’s a fair point, and so far it’s been dead-on
Need to let it breathe a bit more though as risk assets have been down only the entire time since
Eli Lilly longs, are you feeling comfortable?
(When Elon starts to notice your trade, you are 9th inning of that trend)
Haha I was hammering the point about this giga Island Top but this meme depicts the situation far better
Pls Buy
I will leave it to Gavin Baker to stroke himself off about each incremental 5B of ARR
80-100B is no joke, but I think it’s a sweet spot
My paranoia is telling me ANT is doing everything they can to fire on all cylinders into IPO and as more shares unlock it’s going to be coincidentally harder to get that incremental 5B as these numbers get larger and larger
Mandelbrot retweeted
After staying in the private markets until their Series W, they are finally rushing to Democratize Finance and ensure everyone gets a slice
How to light a few mil on fire…
(They tried to short the hole for muh guaranteed Derivatives Don ETF rebalance sell)
$SPY
Coming back to my original fractal that allowed me to catch this move down…
Given it worked so well, let’s have a look at what it says comes next…
This would imply round of Black Monday chants into a last gasp TACO
Obviously not my base case, but you gotta respect it
Most hourly buy volume since the last hourly candle of Friday March 20
Would imply gap up next week, early top and chop, followed by one more week of cratering before swing long into year end
