Co-Founder @ Flashpass: The Antidote to AI Doomerism. Co-Founder @ Bowers Hinman Capitol Affairs. Former Director of OH House Speaker’s Office
Columbus, OH
Joined December 2025
- Tweets329
- Following415
- Followers340
- Likes268
Will Hinman retweeted
What polls can't compensate for is the fact that normal, small town Midwesterners don't care to share their political preferences with strangers. It breaks cultural norms.
Will Hinman retweeted
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality.
It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67%
That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs.
People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right?
The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting.
Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.
BREAKING: James Talarico surges to new all-time high in odds to win the Texas Senate race.
67% chance Talarico flips Texas blue.
🔗 polymarket.com/r/TexasSenate
Will Hinman retweeted
Trump’s decline in popularity is more concentrated in suburbia and much less pronounced in the Ohio Valley, where he’s still relatively popular… so not sure this tracks.
Will Hinman retweeted
The total market volume in state races is typically around $1M. Lots of motivation to manipulate markets and shift perceived momentum. In OH, these concentrated, one sided buys made up 20% of the market and the media acted like it was a real barometer of momentum
Will Hinman retweeted
Before I started my first business, I spent six months mapping out every detail. It gave me some confidence, but in retrospect, I was better off just building the plane while flying. You end up iterating significantly anyways. Only way is to jump, then swim.
