The global bond market is screaming that we are in the financial endgame.
• Roughly $10T in U.S. debt needs to be refinanced this fiscal year at market rates. Higher rates will add significantly to our interest expense.
• AI companies are borrowing enormous amounts of money but rising yields will push their borrowing costs higher and could eventually burst the bubble that is propping up our economy.
• Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, just saw its 10 year yield hit 3% for the first time since 1996.
• Higher yields in Japan could incentivize Japanese investors to move capital back home, reducing demand for U.S. Treasuries. If the yen continues to weaken, Japan may also be forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to support its currency.
Borrowing costs are exploding at the moment governments around the world need more money to fund massive deficits and expensive wars. We are seeing the wars in Iran and Ukraine potentially expand or even merge, creating a new global war that will be extremely costly.
This is also happening as demographic collapse continues to impact the world. Lower working-age populations decrease potential tax revenue and put even further strain on government budgets.
So the options for the U.S. are:
1) Aggressive YCC to suppress yields. Borrowing costs stay down, but you risk more inflation and currency debasement.
2) Raise rates and tighten monetary policy to slow inflation. But yields and borrowing costs stay elevated putting even more pressure on governments and businesses, especially as AI borrowing continues to increase.
With this backdrop, it wouldn’t surprise me to start seeing more financial repression. The government will find ways to force capital to stay here, but this will anger the population.
As I’ve said before, we are in a fourth turning and living through an even bigger version of 1929-1945.
An era of outsized peace and prosperity (1945-2019) may come to an end in equally outsized manner of chaos and destruction.
Yields just won't stop.
You know it's bad when bond market is quite literally ignoring the US Treasury.
24 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now pushing into 4.80%, its highest since January 2025.
That's another +20 basis points since the low seen after the US Treasury's intervention announcement 13 days ago.
In a sudden turn of events, 7% mortgages are back, the 10Y Note Yield is nearing 5%, and markets are expecting a September rate hike.
This marks a +85 basis point run in the 10Y Note Yield since the Iran War began.
Once again, the US simply cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield at 5% for a sustained period of time.
We expect further attempts at intervention immediately.
But, the question becomes: will markets listen?
Sep 1, 2026 · 2:17 PM UTC
Around a year ago today I warned that YCC is inevitable.
The bond market will play a much greater role than the stock market over the next 5–10 years.
Global governments’ and central banks’ biggest struggle will be bringing down the long end of the curve.
With deficits high, they will have no choice but to roll over the existing debt into longer-term bonds if they want to have a chance at survival.
This means QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) are highly likely in the near future. There’s no way the Fed Funds rate will bring down the long end of the curve.
In fact, it could very well increase yields. Housing will become more expensive since 30-year mortgages are more influenced by the long end rather than the short end.
To add salt to the wound, the demographic situation is a disaster. Fewer people means less tax revenue and lower productivity.
As history has shown us, they will print their way out of any mess. Who will want to buy our bonds if the yields are 3% but inflation is 5%?
I’m not exactly sure how this will play out, but at this stage, things are not looking too good.
Look at how gold is moving. The future is already here.
– Z Money 🟠
Why do you think war is being pushed so hard? The elite need a war to reset the global economy.
Why does it feel like we’re on the brink of a massive financial collapse and global war?
Because it’s being done on purpose, and here’s why.
People who study economics understand that central bankers view the economy as an energy system. Their goal is to redirect energy from workers and savers into their own hands. Think of it like an electrical circuit being manipulated to funnel energy into a single point.
The global economy is structured this way through fiat currency. “Currency” itself is essentially a proxy term for current, like an electrical current. The energy you spend working gets stored in money (currency) and moves through the economy like a flow of energy (current).
Inflation is the transfer (current) of purchasing power (energy) from workers and savers into the hands of governments, central banks, and asset owners. Governments borrow money to fund social programs, wars, and sometimes fraud, while central banks create that money through debt. As more money enters the system, existing currency loses value.
As shown in the document below, we are the true creditors of the entire system. Through the silent tax of inflation, we have paid for every war, bailout, social program, and fraudulent scheme.
Previous generations kicked the bill down the road because borrowing money was easier than asking citizens to pay higher taxes. But the bill has been kicked down the road for too long.
Now, younger generations are realizing they haven’t just lost purchasing power through inflation, they’ve lost economic mobility itself. But, the system was designed as a time bomb. Older generations can only steal so much wealth from future generations before those generations finally realize what happened.
So what’s the solution for central banks? Either redirect public anger into war and turn people against each other, or use crisis to convince the population to surrender its freedoms for a new system.
It feels like we’re reaching that point in history again. The last time was 1929–1945.
Remember this as politicians continue pushing for war. They want us to kill each other (creditors) to rebalance the system. Then through shock and trauma, give up our freedoms for a new system.
That new system will be an AI surveillance state similar to 1984 or Brave New World.
