Washington lifted U.S. sanctions on Belaruskali and related firms in late 2025 and March 2026, after prisoner releases in Minsk. Some small U.S.-bound cargoes have already been discussed or loaded. Lukashenko said today that most 2026 volumes are already contracted (heavily toward China and other eastern buyers) and that large extra Western shipments are not sitting around waiting.​ The U.S. is about 90%+ import-dependent for potash. Canada supplies most of that — commonly cited in the 80–90% range of U.S. imports, which is roughly three-quarters of all potash American farms actually use. Canada is the world’s largest producer and exporter. Belarus is a major producer (roughly the No. 3 supplier globally) but not a substitute at U.S. scale.​ Canadianworldreport Before sanctions, Belarus typically sent on the order of 600,000 tonnes a year to the U.S. Canada sends on the order of 11–12 million tonnes. Even if Belarus ramps hard, it cannot fill that hole. New Belarusian capacity (including Nezhinsky) adds some tonnes over time; it does not rewrite the map. Logistics matter more than a Truth Social post. Belarus is landlocked. The efficient old route was Lithuania’s port of Klaipėda. The EU still sanctions Belarusian potash and has not opened that corridor. Washington has asked Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine to allow transit; they have not agreed. Shipping via Russian ports is longer, costlier, and politically ugly. Not cheap, despite what Trump says for farmer votes.

BELARUS IS LANDLOCKED. BELARUS IS THOUSANDS OF MILES AWAY. BELARUS IS STILL UNDER SANCTIONS BY EVERYONE EXCEPT THE USA. SHIPPING COSTS ALONE! WHY DOES ANDREW SCHEER NOT KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THE GLOBAL POTASH MARKET?