Pre Market Thoughts - 21 Sep 26 Strong price action into Friday's close despite war murmurs gave Asia markets some strong support. $NKY and $KOSPI are both up about 1.4% for the day. In memory, $00660 continues to trade firmly. Ever since the buyback for $00660 has started, the price volatility has been dampened tremendously. $MU and $SNDK are also trading strongly in illiquid pre market. On the entire semi sector, i want to talk about $ORCL. Over the weekend, we had some FUD hitting about $ORCL's project Jupiter deal becoming "distressed". First of all, this is trading at about 90c. The original deal was for SOFR + 250bps. Now these marks are at SOFR +500bps. Which translates into a borrowing cost of ~8.85%. While optically it looks high - this is more a symptom of the fact that EVERYONE is trying to raise debt aka the "crowding out effect". Current compute markets are in a dramatic shortage with 1 year payback on deals. Of course you would raise debt at 8%, 9% ,10% to do these deals. This is the reason why the hyperscalers have went into such huge capex spending. The capital markets right now are divided into 2. First half are the old grizzled veterans who have never quite seen anything like this before, they are convinced that "it is no different this time". The other half are those who look at the data and wonder why and how are these opportunities still here! The contrast and struggle between the 2 sides are what allows for $00660/ $MU /$SNDK to trade at such multiples. At the end of the day, cashflow is the name of the game. If the 1 year payback period materialises, then the markets will reprice the fact. Likewise, price my stock at 4x fwd PE? Sure, let me buyback all my stock then. Will this last forever? Let me be cynical and say no. Burry will be eventually right - We will "overbuild" as is human nature to over extend into the other side. But currently, we are in fact underbuilding. Which is why compute markets are at 1 year paybacks. $NBIS remains my strongest play for compute and inference market repricing. Another theme that is also catching on is the agentic meta. With muse, grokbot - the era of widespread agentic usage is coming. The core TLDR is that CPUs will go into a shortage. Think $INTC/$AMD/$ARM for the CPU theme. In crypto, my favorite sector to bid is STILL AI. I have been hammering about this. In my note on 10 Sep, I made the call to be cautious because majors were looking weak. I even said, the play was to start observing which ones are getting to value zones with good risk reward. Today, the AI tickers like $TAO/ $VVV /$NEAR have repriced dramatically. Less so on $TAO. $PRL is one of the illiquid tokens that remains very difficult to buy but stands at the forefront of the inference capital markets narrative. Generally, i am expecting a slow down and consolidation move in recent winners like $ZEC. I have been spending most of my time working on terminal.gambit.zone - a few new features - first the mobile app version is out. Secondly, the chat function has been revamped a little. Lastly, you can now get alerted to Fomo/Pump buy/sells/thesis on the terminal directly as well. As such I will be posting the second half of my write up on my private chat on the terminal going forward. It is free to access, sign up with the link below and you will be able to see the chatroom. terminal.gambit.zone/?ref=DE… Good luck!