bob4

Here’s what I think happens in Texas over the next 4–8 years following this election. Something I think many Texans underestimate is that an entire generation has grown up knowing virtually nothing other than Republican leadership in this state. Texas hasn’t had a Democratic governor since 1995. For many Texans, the economic environment, business climate, tax structure and political culture they’ve experienced their entire lives are simply what they understand Texas to be. They’ve never experienced a prolonged period of Democratic control over the state’s major governing institutions. And that distinction matters. It’s easy to take certain economic advantages for granted when you’ve never experienced a substantially different governing philosophy. Texas has spent decades building a reputation as a business friendly state with relatively low taxes, fewer regulations, and an environment that rewards investment, entrepreneurship, and ownership. That reputation has attracted millions of people and billions in capital. The question now is whether this political realignment gradually changes the conditions that made Texas attractive in the first place. I expect a greater push toward government spending, expanded social programs, increased regulation and a larger role for the state in the economy. Many of these proposals will be presented as solutions to affordability, but the long-term costs deserve considerably more scrutiny. Property taxes will remain a major political battleground. Texas already has some of the highest property tax burdens in the country. The danger isn’t necessarily a new tax tomorrow. It’s that government spending commitments grow faster than the tax base needed to support them. Electricity and water will become increasingly important economic issues. Texas is experiencing enormous demand from population growth, manufacturing and data centers. If infrastructure expansion fails to keep pace, households and businesses will more than likely pay the price. I also expect greater conflict over business regulation. Politicians often talk about making corporations pay their fair share, but corporations respond to incentives. When operating costs increase, those expenses are frequently passed along to consumers, absorbed through lower profits or reflected in reduced investment. Capital is mobile. Businesses can relocate. Investors can deploy money elsewhere. Texas should understand that better than almost any state considering how much it has benefited from companies leaving California, Illinois and New York. Housing affordability will remain another major issue. You cannot solve a housing shortage without increasing supply. If regulations, development costs, and permitting requirements make construction less attractive, the result can be fewer homes and higher prices. I expect significant changes in the cultural and political direction of the state as well. Education, parental authority, religious expression, abortion, and gender-related policies will become increasingly contested. These issues extend far beyond election cycles because they concern the values being institutionalized for the next generation. And I think that’s what people underestimate about elections. You’re not simply electing individuals. You’re empowering people to appoint officials, influence institutions, shape legislation and establish priorities that can outlast their time in office. James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa represent a substantial departure from the political and cultural leadership Texans have elected for decades. Whether voters agree with their philosophies or not, that shift will inevitably influence the state’s political, economic and cultural direction. Whether those changes ultimately benefit TX remains to be seen. Now, none of this means every proposed policy becomes law. Texas has constitutional safeguards, a Legislature and courts. Those institutional checks matter.… (cont)