predictooor @getsozu // reachout in dms
Joined December 2023
- Tweets2.5K
- Following860
- Followers458
- Likes3.5K
insane stuff happening across the border in china
Our investigations into the recent wave of AI inference infra attacks point to a concerning pattern.
We believe Anthropic’s crackdown on distillation may be accelerating a shift toward stolen credentials and compromised inference infrastructure.
Our findings suggest certain Chinese operators are involved in networks reselling frontier model access through heavily discounted AI gateways.
The economics are simple: steal API keys, hijack inference capacity, and resell tokens at a fraction of legitimate prices.
We suspect these are not isolated incidents, but part of a growing underground economy built around stolen AI compute. Inference infrastructure is becoming a prime target for organized cybercrime.
34
satyam retweeted
If there is one thing the AI revolution has taught me, it’s that 99% of people cannot extrapolate. At all. Quite literally people cannot imagine or visualize progress or changes beyond the current state. Complete inability to predict the future.
satyam retweeted
NOW:
Amazon blocked Meta’s Muse AI agent from shopping on its site. Shopify has now gone the other way.
Muse users can shop across Shopify stores and complete purchases through Shop Pay, giving Meta’s agent a major commerce route just after Amazon shut it out.
Shopping agents can bypass the retailer storefront itself, including the ads and discovery layer built around it.
Most people trading Polymarket read the same headlines as everyone else and do the math in their head. By the time they've worked out what it actually means for a market, the price has usually already moved.
🧵
🤖 Made with AI
1
61
150 traders used it. Together they walked away with over 1000% in gains on Polymarket.
We're building the next version now, moving past Polymarket into how this same information moves stocks, commodities, and broader financial markets.
1
9
satyam retweeted
I started with a small idea, kept expanding the thesis, and eventually had a blog that was too long for anyone to read.
So I turned it into an interactive reading experience instead.
Nikita says links aren’t penalized anymore. I’m still putting it in the next tweet.
satyam retweeted
BAR CHECK: Will Iran Announce MOU Termination by July 31?
The headline: "Iran suspends MOU."
The rule: pays out only on "a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process."
What was actually said: "We have also suspended all our commitments," per Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's Deputy FM (Jul 18).
Verdict: ❌Fail.
📊 Sozu Model: 19¢ | Market range: 14.5¢ to 22.5¢ | Resolves Aug 1
Next: Three statements this week climbed the ladder (suspend → no plans → never under any circumstances) and still landed short.
Watch for the one word missing from all of them: terminate.
satyam retweeted
🚨 SOZU SIGNAL 🚨
Yesterday the US said its blockade of Iran resumes July 14.
Iran already charges up to $2M a ship to cross Hormuz, but informally, through the IRGC.
Under blockade pressure, that needs to become law.
So we raised "Iran formalizes Hormuz fees by Aug 31" to 70¢. The book was at 52¢. We left the near dates alone.
Today Iran's parliament introduced a bill to manage the Strait.
Three steps down: blockade lands, legal cover needed, bill introduced.
Two to go: passage or a fee announcement by July 18, then collection before Aug 31.
Introduced is not passed. Nothing has resolved.
Aug 31: book says 52¢. We say 70¢.
satyam retweeted
I've a prediction market tool for the World Cup!
I'm talking about @Sozuposting, basically it notifies you wen there might be an information edge before the market reacts
what does it mean? for example:
> a possible penalty is being checked by the VAR
> there is mismatched price on Polymarket
> Sozu AI detects momentum
beta is now live, you can grab $5 for sign up with my ref code (only first 1000 users)
France is going to the final imo, what's your take?
🤝 Paid partnership
satyam retweeted
The market is trading Maine Senate like the delegates are already chosen. They aren't.
Maine Democrats just confirmed open county caucuses, not an insider-run selection. That's the exact turnout game Troy Jackson has been building for since the day he entered, and Polymarket moved him from 50¢ to 67¢ on it.
But July 25 is a multi-round elimination vote, not a plurality. June's governor primary already showed the risk: the candidate leading round one lost once the votes redistributed.
Sozu has Jackson favored at 55%, not crowned. The real trade isn't his number. It's whether Bellows still owns the second-choice coalition that decided the last race like this one.
having long term thesis for a forecasting agent is very necessary
these thesis will have its dependent markets and assigned weights to create an index out of them
anyone can just type "i believe in this and this", forecasting agent will either already believe in this thesis...
1
88