absreturnchaser (@absreturnchaser) profile picture

Event-driven / Special Situations PM For informational purposes. Not investment advice/recommendation to buy/sell securities. Views are my own.

Joined June 2022
absreturnchaser retweeted
Any pods above 1bn GMV in L/S equity and event-driven out of London? DM me for discussion.
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ITV will pay out 40% (!) as capital return next year, studios business will be left and clear takeover candidate with currently cheap implied valuation. Earnings today in line, advertising biz will be sold anyway. #ITV $ITV.L
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absreturnchaser retweeted
3. There has been takeover interest before. EQT made a cash offer of 208p a share and Thomas H. Lee Partners entered discussions. Since then, business has grown top and bottom line materially. Valuation has almost halved since.
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absreturnchaser retweeted
and are risky to replace, so customers rarely switch, which makes the revenue unusually sticky. The business is moving toward subscriptions, with recent subscription growth, new wins and new AI tools. 2. Balance sheet is strong: net cash and record of special divis.
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The SaaSpocalypse has led to many takeovers. One potential target that is left: Alfa Financial Software #ALFA. The core platform that banks, carmakers’ finance arms and other lenders use to run their auto and equipment finance contracts. Systems like this take years to implement
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absreturnchaser retweeted
1. I run an event-driven book, which is holding up. I am very surprised how poorly (or not at all) some of the pod shops have been risk managed. @__paleologo et al are the risk mgt experts, but a platform should not be down 7% in a single month. That tells me risk wasn't managed.
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absreturnchaser retweeted
Was told that more pod shops other than Walleye and Engineers Gate as well as single managers are impacted by this week's carnage. I have received dozens of DMs what has gone wrong. Couple of points, all my opinion only:
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absreturnchaser retweeted
4. SPD Berlin state executive (Landesvorstand) - Write to: SPD Berlin, Müllerstraße 163, 13353 Berlin. - Demand: Commit in coalition agreement that before any socialisation law (1) the framework law has been reviewed by a constitutional court,
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3. Letters to SPD and Green members of Berlin House of Representatives - Find your constituency member at parlament-berlin.de. - Arguments: tenants' back payments after rent cap ruling, money for new housing instead of compensation, debt brake puts schools & daycare at risk
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2. Petitions to the Bavarian and Hessian state parliaments - Bavaria: bayern.landtag.de - Hesse: hessischer-landtag.de - Demand: A Bundesrat initiative for a federal ban on socialisation and an assessment of a constitutional review (Normenkontrolle).
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1. Petition to the Berlin House of Representatives - Online at parlament-berlin.de - Demand: Publish the legal opinion on Art. 23 of the Berlin constitution and an up-to-date cost estimate; no socialisation before a constitutional court ruling.
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absreturnchaser retweeted
Finally stakeholders stand up against the unconstitutional plans regarding real estate in Berlin. #VNA Vonovia #DWNI Deutsche Wohnen - so what can you do against them?:
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absreturnchaser retweeted
Bottom line: highly unlikely to be implemented. Ignore sell-side headlines. Stocks like Deutsche Wohnen #DWNI $DWNI trade on a 7% net yield (not divi, but guaranteed compensation) and 0.3x BV. Great LT hold.
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absreturnchaser retweeted
EKF #EKF with some potential. Could be easy money for PE or a strategic.
Next takeover target and only in Europe: diagnostics group focused on testing and contract manufacturing with much of revenue coming from recurring consumables. 53% gross margin EBITDA margins of 25%. Net cash, trading on 6x 2027 EBITDA.
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