Principal Analyst @Benchmarkmin | Leading price reporting agency & market intelligence for the lithium ion battery supply chain
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Joined September 2022
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Which direction is the market moving after Golden Week? #lithium #spodumene #southamerica @benchmarkmin
Where are lithium prices as Golden Week commences?
#lithium #cell #inventory #spodumene @benchmarkmin
How come lithium prices are falling, and what is really going on with inventory?
@benchmarkmin #lithium #inventory #spodumene
I see a lot of conflicting reports on what is happening with lithium inventory right now and this speculation is driving outsize price swings. Benchmark's Lithium Inventory Tracker shows that inventory continues to deplete gradually, now down a further 2.8% month-on-month.
To find out what is driving the drawdown (and how @benchmarkmin tracks this figure) read my full piece for free here: source.benchmarkminerals.com…
#lithium #inventory #volatility
EXW China lithium carbonate $23.15/kg Benchmark Mineral Intelligence #lithium price update @benchmarkmin
What is the lithium price today? Benchmark Mineral Intelligence @benchmarkmin #lithium
What is the lithium price today? Benchmark Mineral Intelligence @benchmarkmin #lithium
What is the lithium price today? Benchmark Mineral Intelligence @benchmarkmin #lithium
🎢 Q2 was a rollercoaster for #lithium
Still-low inventory and tightening feedstock supply pushed prices higher and kept them volatile in April.
The rally reversed in mid-May, as the top end of @benchmarkmin's lithium carbonate prices hit $29.63/kg (EXW China incl. VAT) and $26.00/kg (CIF Asia). Fears among speculators that the market had underestimated #inventory levels triggered the turn.
The descent then continued through June, as Jianxiawo secured its safety licence and financial players began to price in supply additions, which Benchmark forecasts will tip us into a surplus in 2027.
The full read of my piece featuring Zimbabwean quotas, Australian restarts, and #sulphuric acid price hikes, is here: source.benchmarkminerals.com…
📢New Giga Africa speakers have just been announced.
Senior battery leaders will share data-led analysis onstage, covering upstream, demand and emerging markets across the clean energy ecosystem.
The latest additions to the line up include:
🔹 Peter Yang – CEO, BTR Morocco
🔹 Matthieu Bos – President & CEO, Falcon Energy Materials
🔹 Khalid Hammouch – SVP Business Development, Managem
🔹 Inga Petersen – Executive Director & Board Member, Global Battery Alliance
🔹 Bill Williams – Global Director Business Development, Battery Manufacturing, Baltimore Aircoil
🔹 Maxime Francois – Regional General Manager, Africa & Middle East, Alfred H Knight
Connect with them at Africa’s leading #battery #supplychain conference on 29-30th September in Marrakech, @benchmarkmin #GigaAfrica
Here is the link to secure your place: eu1.hubs.ly/H0x5wzg0
Lithium spot prices jumped yesterday, so is Jianxiawo's restart being 'faked'?
A recent securities report in China cast doubt over the legitimacy of the restart at CATL's 150,000 tpa LCE capacity Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, citing low activity around the site and the continued absence of an Environmental Impact Assessment. Remember, a lapsed licence amid waste management concerns and low market prices closed the mine in August 2025.
Our take: while it is a concern that we haven’t seen an EIA, it's not enough to call the whole restart into question. Here's why...
An EIA is a precondition for getting a safety production license (granted on 29 June), but they managed to obtain this without one.
That doesn't mean the restart isn't genuine, rather CATL is not following standard procedure here.
@benchmarkmin has seen a traceable increase in activity at the three refining partners: Lopal; Wanzai; and Fengxin. Lopal should be first to receive restart material, given that it's the only one of the three that didn’t fully shut down - though it's worth noting this could involve stockpiled material for now. One of Lopal's two lines is operating; the other is not, and will need to undergo a full restart process.
Wanzai and Fengxin remain suspended, with only slow ramp-up activity so far.
In summary, the truth lies between the two narratives: Jianxiawo's restart has been neither instant nor fake, it's just gradual, like every brownfield mining restart - China speed or otherwise.
So why have #lithium prices fallen over the previous 10 days?
The mid-term demand outlook for #EV cells weakened following poor profitability figures from several Chinese EV makers. The figures stoked cost control and sales growth concerns as domestic retail EV sales continue to underwhelm - the OEMs blame increasing silicon chip and lithium prices.
Despite the negative news flow, Benchmark's real-time consumption indicators remain strong (cell + cathode + vehicle production are delivering strong demand pull through). This comes against a backdrop of still-depleted Li chemical inventories, just at the point in the year when they would normally be at their peak.
📯 CATL's large Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi has secured its long-awaited safety production permit. How are #lithium prices reacting?
Late last week lithium prices in China were already falling as rumours circulated that the permit had been issued. By early this week, when we set eyes on a copy of the permit, prices were already bouncing back up under consistent demand and opportunistic buying at what had become attractive prices for many #cathode and #cell-producing consumers. This demand is meeting a cocktail of supportive supply-side factors:
- Tight feedstock balance, with the reverberations of Zimbabwe’s export suspension (now quota) being felt in domestic China supply balances
- Tightening chemicals picture, with Sinomine’s Jiangxi subsidiary halting production for maintenance, citing force majeur due to a lack of feedstock. They join Jiuling, Huayou and Chengxin in warning of lower near-term output
- Lower chemical import levels into China from Chile
- Still-depleted inventory versus typical levels at mid-year. This should be when inventory is at its highest, ready for stronger EV consumption behaviour into Q4, but @benchmarkmin's Inventory Tracker shows it has barely built since the start of 2026
🔗 Read more on our analysis of this latest development here: source.benchmarkminerals.com…
Adam Megginson retweeted
By the end of June, lithium carbonate and hydroxide inventory had fallen 1,400 tonnes LCE month on month, according to Benchmark’s independent survey of Chinese converters and cathode manufacturers. Modest decline but in keeping with the trend of inventories remaining under pressure.
Jiangxi Sinomine Lithium’s statement yesterday that it will curtail lithium chemical production in July, taking about 5,000 tonnes out of the market, potentially points to further inventory tightening this month.
May's frothy rally saw lithium prices hit $24.00/kg (2.1x year to date) CIF Asia and an even higher $28.40/kg in #China - prompting interest among traders and scepticism among consumers. So how did we get here and what risks lie ahead?
On 25 June, my colleagues @MetalPricesDan, @DrCamPerksBMI and I will break down exactly what’s contributing to current tightness, and what the opportunities and potential pitfalls look like as price correction becomes increasingly likely.
Next year, @benchmarkmin expects #lithium prices to ease as elevated prices usher in a supply response. We'll walk through our view in more detail during the webinar next week.
You don't want to miss this one, sign up here: lnkd.in/e85UBu-9
🔻 Benchmark lithium prices in China sank by 9.2% today, but why? The answer is twofold...
1️⃣ EV sales figures published by several Chinese automakers for February underwhelmed (e.g. BYD saw Jan+Feb sales down 35.8% y-o-y).
2️⃣ Concerns emerged that demand for #BESS in the Middle East (an important and fast growing region for deployment of Chinese BESS) could be dampened by a widening conflict there.
How did the market react?
Speculators:
In response, investors sold #lithium futures contracts, moving their money either into cash to weather market instability, or into petrochemicals to capitalise on rallying crude prices following strikes on oil assets in the Middle East and related shipping disruption. Here, opportunity cost was a major factor, demonstrating that lithium futures in China host significant speculator capital.
Downstream consumers:
With domestic inventory depleted (especially when expressed on relative terms, in weeks of demand), consumers rushed to buy at lowering spot prices, leading to a flurry of transaction activity across a wide but falling range of prices. Futures quotations closed on Monday at RMB 172,000/tonne and by the end of trading today were at RMB 150,860/tonne (for the May '26 contract). A dip of about RMB 10,000/tonne has tended to be enough to trigger the downstream to pick up procurement activity. When the exchange hit its volatility limit of 13%, trading ground to a halt.
Elsewhere:
CIF Asia spot prices will be slower to react, having only just reflected a more bullish post-Chinese New Year swing, accelerated by Zimbabwe's export ban (more on this at the second link in the comments).
#Spodumene prices are unlikely to dip as sharply as chemicals, because sellers currently retain strong bargaining power. Many players are racing to bring supply to market at these much more appealing prices. So, don't be surprised if this strong feedstock seller power doesn't last to the end of the year.
🔗 Read our full analysis of this story at the link in the comments. @benchmarkmin
