Semi-retiredly shitposting online, on a different blue website
An Island
Joined January 2012
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coming back to the hellsite after a two year hiatus, the #1 thing about elon's algo is how fast it adjusts. click on one france riot pic and you get fed 500 more, one poll and you get 500 more, ad infinitum. it slots you into a silo and rots your brain faster than boomerbook.
Things that won't happen:
1)huge crossover. people always say they will this time, nothingeverhappens.
2)organized election disruption, b/c trump doesn't actually believe he's losing.
3)massive red EDay wave. come on who are we kidding.
Day 11. Turnout high across the board but not saving the rurals at all. Day 10 was...younger and very +Hispanic, on curve. I'll skip tomorrow night and post final numbers + a gov prediction + some other predictions this weekend. Senate is p much locked Likely D.
You aren't considering the right tail enough, anon
You've seen some of it in the last 24 hours, you'll see more in the next couple of days: the remaining undecideds are moving.
Elections don't end 48-46 (at least head-to-head ones don't)
And in wave years, as Haley Barbour likes to say, good gets better and bad gets worse.
Trump clearly knows it, too. He hates standing w losers and the spin about being able to do more w tele rallies gets him off the hook from another round of rallies with folks about to take Ls
I had to scroll past easily a hundred different copium peddling posts to make this one happen. Just some incredible analysis; I can only guess how much happier he made those 482 people looking for reassurance the libs will be owned soon.
This data isn't totally reliable IME but worth looking at anyway for trends. You can see why I'm skeptical of Florida (lol Cubans) and was out in front of Texas early on.
Hint: when the heaviest move in the country is in Minnesota they're not going to the polls for Paxton.
I've spent today looking for good places to bet on the Republican Party anywhere in America: there are none. The "good" options are places they're normally up 30 and will win by 15, and places they're normally down 30 and might only lose by 25.
Patriots in Kansas, a state with 3 million people and 1.3 million voters, would dominate this year just like they've done for the past hundred or so if only their votes could be counted properly. Alas, the deep state rigged it so well that even their senator votes from Florida.
If Kansas Republican legislators had addressed our election concerns instead of ignoring the patriots who have been raising the alarm, we wouldn’t be in this position.
The problem goes beyond Kansas. Republicans as a whole have failed to take meaningful action on election integrity, and now patriots are losing faith in the process and questioning whether their votes even matter.
Republicans need to stop ignoring the people who put them in office and start taking action. Strongly worded letters aren’t enough. We need real solutions, accountability, and leaders who are willing to listen to the people they represent.
Dem turnout: almost identical to 2025
Indy turnout: slightly below 2025
R turnout: the crater can be seen from space
they're just changing turnout patterns bro. red wave on EDay bro. last minute rush to the polls to vote for Jon Husted's ass bro
again, here's the same national trend in the most rural Appalachian environment possible with no real national attention: rural Dems aren't quite at over the top tsunami levels, but Rs are just not interested at all.
the thing that makes Nevada insane right now is that if they're really going for +8 on turnout alone without factoring persuasion in at all, and this is a national trend (which it seems to be in most key states), all of those D+11 GCBs are underestimating by a significant number.
The early voting blog is updated!
The Joe Friday report:
Ds have a nearly 34K lead statewide (6%), massive 50K lead (13%) in Clark County.
Two days left in early voting, and some Repubs are dead men/women walking. Gov still alive but on life support.
thenevadaindependent.com/art…
if I ignore all polling, and then make up a number, we're doing fine in some states and worse in others. But it can't possibly be as bad as 2006 because *checks notes* this Middle Eastern war is far more successful and gas prices are far lower and independents just love it here
I’ve done a deep dive on early voting so far in four battleground states for this cycle — Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas — all states Trump won in 24. And then in my modeling projected a 55-45 loss among independents, because I just don’t trust much of any polling so I chose that for a negative baseline (and accounts for a double digit negative swing here among INDs Trump won in each state from 24 given historical trends and current state of economy).
I’m looking to see if Trump era (2016-24) GOP Election Day turnouts make victory achievable there given those parameters.
States I’m now more optimistic about: Iowa and Michigan.
States I’m now more worried about: Ohio and Texas (although final days of early voting there may change my mind).
the presidential year we win texas and lose new york is going to be the most wild year in modern political history, not helped by the fact that the entirety of Democratic media in this country lives within walking distance to the Q train
Day 10: Turnout up across the board, as expected. Non-Hockley rurals still not overperforming (reluctantly handing it to Trump's rally). Today and the next two days should be younger and +Hispanic; if that's the case this remains a likely Talarico, tossup Hinajosa electorate.
Built myself an NY dashboard and, yep, here's your example of a genuinely mediocre EV turnout that owns the libs. If every state looked like that the rallies wouldn't be in random T+70 counties.
Importantly, this doesn't matter an iota unless you're exactly Mike Lawler.
GA about to finish EV with a 53% white, 31.x% black electorate. Obviously GA-Sen has been over the entire time. But to win GA-Gov, Rs also need a 2022-esque EDay that's rural heavy and with very few black voters. It's not crazy that they'll get it, but this race is lean D.
The effect is actually still happening today in Hockley, gaining cons another 50 votes or so. NGL, it's impressive; basically, if the president shows up to your specific middle of nowhere, your turnout *will* spike.
There is no blue wave. It'll be D+4 nationally. The libtards will get rekt again just like 2024 when Trump was campaigning in Virginia. Anyway let me just check the last thing he's doing that night
Trump announces he’s doing a tele-rally for #LASEN nominee Julia Letlow on the eve of the election. Mike Johnson will join