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The biggest reason to doubt the official story: she died. If it was the sort of lab leak her colleague described: a broken test tube, she would have been given preventitive/treatment dosing of effective antibiotics and would be alive right now. It is only fatal if left untreated. Even if she wanted to cover up the broken vial, she would still have treated herself knowing she would otherwise die. The antibiotics for treatment are common and easy to get with any plausible story. Go in to a regular clinic and complain of a UTI and you'll get Cipro prescribed. Complain of a really bad cough and fevers and say your spouse has pneumonia and you can get Cipro. No one who works with plague in a BSL 3 lab would not somehow treat themselves just to save the embarrasment of reporting the incident. Russia has often blamed Ukraine for supposed biowarfare attacks. Not this time. Never believe anything until it's been officially denied.