"Talking a lot about less and less and forgetting the love we bring" - Robert Hunter
Chicago
Joined February 2008
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Alan Warms retweeted
Not surprised. No one is.
Alan Warms retweeted
One good mayoral election here and Chicago will become the last refuge for capitalism, free markets and prosperity. Who would’ve thought?!
Alan Warms retweeted
Deep-diving into this on air with a lot of data.
But hey -- if a faction not reflected in exit data want to make this about Iran, then realize you're implicating the VP who led the failed MOU and pushed for repeated ceasefires. Prosecuting Iran wasn't the failure, the ceasefire at the brink of victory was.
Some didn't think this through.
Alan Warms retweeted
I didn't even think this was possible, but I hate, loathe, and despise JD Vance even more today than I did two days ago. I will vote for just about any Democrat if he is the GOP nominee in 2028.
Alan Warms retweeted
Of course she does... It would be economically foolish to give up the greatest tax and job opportunity in human history!
The Democrats are going to be ALL IN on data centers, provided the AI industry is reasonable when it comes to taxes, water, noise, pollution and energy — which they are.
This is obvious to anyone with any basic knowledge of game theory or street smarts:
You take the money when it's clean, and it benefits your team.
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
Alan Warms retweeted
Thread Analysis of the Blue Tsunami
Past trends always made it likely that the GOP was headed for a rough election night this week. But the historic blowout we saw on Tuesday goes far beyond anything that trend alone could explain. There were plenty of real reasons for the results, and it’s important to understand them in order to assess voter concerns properly. While everyone will focus on their preferred spin to push narratives, all of these factors played a role:
Alan Warms retweeted
Getting more and more optimistic on @texasforgina
She has a Republican and a union electrician on her 4 person transition team.
And love it that she refuses to engage on culture war issues and is staying focused on making the everyday lives of Texans better.
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats”
She was asked at her first press conference why she’d go bipartisan after voters gave Democrats a mandate:
“Because this is about my campaign promises, what I ran to create as governor. We are forging a new way forward. People are tired of the divisions, of the fighting, tired of the culture wars. This is a time to come together in a way that is about just delivering for the people of Texas."
"Ernest Bailes, Representative Ernest Bailes and myself were close allies delivering for our public schools. In fact, I count him as one of my best allies for public schools. That is his commitment. There is really little light between our positions on public education, and as such, he serves as a tremendous leader on this transition team."
"And look, there are lots of issues with whom my good allies are Republicans. So I’m just about delivering for people. This is not about being a Democratic administration. I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats. I’m going to be the governor for all the people of Texas.”
Alan Warms retweeted
With all due respect, Buck, there is literally no data showing that "the war with Iran" was the top issue for anyone going into the voting booth on Tuesday.
Alan Warms retweeted
I decided to sleep on JD Vance’s post from yesterday before commenting on it substantively. I have done so, and given it substantial thought.
My verdict? Here is what I believe that post actually was saying:
“Yeah we lost the election big time. But it’s not my fault, it’s the fault of the guy who made me who I am, and to whom I owe my entire political career. If only everybody had listened to me everything would have been OK. Oh yeah, I’m specifically throwing my boss under the bus, but I am also impliedly throwing Rubio and Hegseth under the bus too because I want to be President. No, I’m not going to talk about the way my lunatic belief that the Iranian mullahs could be reasoned with is really what brought us to this point. I’m also not going to talk about how my hatred of Israel and alliance with fellow Israel-haters and groyper-adjacent loons like Tucker chases away far more voters than it attracts. In other words, I’m not taking responsibility for anything and blaming everybody else. And I’m dropping this literally hours after the election is over so I can set the narrative now before anybody else has a chance to talk that says I’m the good guy, that MAGA is dead, and that I’m the leader of what comes next. No, I did not coordinate this with Trump, I just told him I’m going to do it. And he will say it’s OK because if he does not he’ll get savaged with reports that he has lost control of the Presidency, which was kind of what I wanted. It’s DC. Loyalty does not matter. Vote for me for President.”
Does loyalty matter? I believe it does, because if someone is disloyal to the man who made them, they will also be disloyal to the voters who put them into office.
My 2c.
(And yes, if Vance is the nominee I’ll still vote for him over communist jihadists, but now is the time to debate these kinds of issues inside our own movement.)
Alan Warms retweeted
Here’s what exit polling says:
1. About 40% named the economy as the country’s top issue. Approximately two-thirds believed his policies increased inflation. Around 90% called living costs a major or crucial voting factor; approximately 60% of that group voted Democratic. That’s a verdict rendered on tariffs. I’m not arguing about the pros or cons of tariffs right now. What I am saying is that this is a staple of the post-liberal project, and it’s very telling that none of them are mentioning it as one of the factors for why we lost.
2. Iran hurt, but it ranked below living costs.
3. Catholics moved toward Democrats; white evangelicals largely retained their Republican preference. Catholics, approximately 20% of voters, split nearly evenly after favoring Republicans by about 60–39 in 2024. Roughly 82% of white evangelical voters remained Republican. Their reported share of the electorate fell from 23% to 17%. Religiously unaffiliated voters were 27% of the electorate, with approximately 77% voting Democratic. Of course we can’t measure the effect that Tucker had on religious voters, but I can’t imagine a world in which he did not contribute to those numbers, which, when taken together, represent a 16 point swing.
Alan Warms retweeted
There are legit reasons for D’s to be angry, or even vehemently opposed to Trump.
But seeing blind hate lead to electing anti-American, pro-terrorist candidates (and in TX, a felon who’d withdrawn her candidacy!) is a scary precedent.
More of this could lead to great danger.
This is probably the worst result of the night.
Newly elected Democratic congressman Adam Hamawy was a close associate of Omar Abdel Rahman - the “Blind Sheikh” sentenced to life in prison for his role inspiring the 1993 Wold Trade Center bombing.
Abdel-Rahman issued a fatwa in the US that declared it lawful to rob banks and kill Jews in the US. His sermons condemned Americans as the "descendants of apes and pigs'' and called on Muslims to assail the West, ''kill them on the sea, air, or land.''
Adam Hamawy travelled with the Blind Sheikh to a conference in Detroit in 1991 titled "Towards a Global Islamic Economy.” He ultimately testified in court for the Blind Sheikh to try defend him.
A secret FBI informant said that Hamawy discussed making bombs with the Blind Sheikh and "conquering the land of the infidels.”
Alan Warms retweeted
This advice is easy to say but hard to do - and even I violate these rules from time to time - but its a good day to repost this primer on how to survive and thrive in the stock market.
It’s the Ten Stock Commandments
Some immutable personal finance rules to win at the stock market:
1. Invest, don’t trade.
Trading is gambling and gambling never works in the long run.
2. Never use leverage.
Leverage is what can turn a run-of-the-mill correction into a forced liquidation. You need to stay in the game to win.
3. Time is on your side.
The greatest investors understand there is no more powerful force than compounding interest. Buy quality stocks then try to forget them, for decades, if possible. Don’t think of the market as a way to get rich quick. You can only get rich slow.
4. Diversify
Don’t get too heavy into one asset class or sector. As @jimcramer says, there’s always a bull market somewhere - if you’re diversified you will reap the rewards. A balanced portfolio should have some assets that grow, some that generate income, and some that act as insurance.
5. No crypto.
Crypto is gambling and we’ve already gone over gambling. A little Bitcoin is fine, if you must, but keep this position small because eventually Bitcoin is probably also going to $0.
6. Buy and Hold, only.
Getting cute doesn’t work in the long run. Trying to scrape a bit of alpha by selling covered calls or buying protective puts underperforms a basic buy and hold strategy in the long run. (The exception here is using hedging or options to preserve gains/limit losses.)
7. Keep it boring.
If you’re checking quotes more than once an hour, scouring message boards, or generally obsessing over the market or a trade, this is a clear indication you are taking too much risk. Dial it back until you don’t care as much.
8. Ignore gurus.
If their advice actually worked, they would not be selling courses.
9. Forget fancy charts and indicators.
Some indicators are marginally useful, but the only one that matters is Price (and to a lesser extent Volume).
10. Stay humble.
The market cannot be solved. You cannot successfully time the market in the long run. If you break this rule and it works out, realize that you got lucky and don’t try again.
These are all simple rules but also extremely difficult to follow. Break them at your peril, follow them and you will be rewarded.
Alan Warms retweeted
Iran not at the top of the lists of voter priorities and “changing our relationship with Israel” nowhere to be found. 🤔
Alan Warms retweeted
Look at the clown show. @SusieWiles47 is right. A majority support the GOP on immigration. Even more oppose how cruelly it was implemented. The process, not the policy, drove Hispanics away from the GOP.
Alan Warms retweeted
They really are a Muslim Brotherhood front. It's not hype or fake news. Good on DeSantis. He gets stuff done.
Alan Warms retweeted
4 consecutive years of reducing the budget = lowest per capital spending in America.
Alan Warms retweeted
Four of the 22 are federal circuit court nominees, originalists of great intellect and legal pedigree. Constitution loving senators will get back and get it done and national security-loving senators will get the supplemental done via reconciliation. Very good men like @JohnCornyn will be there. Everybody else?
Lame duck priorities: 22 judicial nominees need all 53 GOP senators back or their lives’ ambitions are crushed as the Dem senate will not confirm a one of them.
The country as a whole needs every Republican in House and Senate to come back and do Reconciliation 3.0 for our troops. Some legislators will be angry or embittered but they need to keep those warriors and their families front of mind and run through the tape.
