Alex Callinicos @alexcallinicos.bsky.social

Faced with a PR hit from the disenfranchisement of Arab voters, who turned out bravely in surging numbers, how can Israel justify discounting their votes? Netanyahu now presents an evidence-free “scandal” tying the Arab parties to Israel's favorite bogeymen, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, there is far more evidence of Israeli attempts to suppress Arab votes: 1) On election day, Netanyahu posted that Arab voters were “Muslim Brotherhood supporters” who were “raiding the polling stations and stealing the elections.” 2) According to Reuters, Likud-branded cars drove through Jerusalem playing the Islamic call to prayer and warning that “Arabs are voting.”' 3) Haaretz reported that Likud paid teams “millions of shekels” to film Arab voters. Likud and Religious Zionism planned to send about 2,000 activists into Arab towns. 4) The Supreme Court refused to ban firearms at polling stations. The Mossawa Center documented settlers confronting voters in Tayibe, Majd al-Krum, Shefa-Amr, Haifa and I’billin. 5) Police checked IDs at Arab polling places, which is the job of election officials. In Segev Shalom, police and National Guard troops kept about 200 voters outside a school, some for up to five hours. 6) Arabic ballot slips were missing in Baqa al-Gharbiyye, Haifa, Nazareth, I’billin, Eilabun, Shefa-Amr and Nof HaGalil. Ra’am reported torn and destroyed slips. 7) Arab voters turned out anyway. By 6 p.m., Rahat had climbed from 59.5% in 2022 to 72.2%. Umm al-Fahm, Kafr Qasim and Nazareth had already passed their 2022 totals. 8) Two days later, the Central Elections Committee chair asked the Shin Bet to investigate suspected foreign funding of that turnout. His letter named no country and offered no evidence. 9) Netanyahu installed Shin Bet chief David Zini over the Attorney General’s conflict-of-interest objection. The conflict was that the Shin Bet was investigating Netanyahu’s own aides over work for Qatar. 10) On Tuesday, Zini called the election “secure, properly conducted and supervised in an inspiring manner.” By Thursday his agency was investigating whether Qatar had corrupted it. 11) The only bribery case, the Ra’am arrests, has produced no significant evidence, and police expect to close it. Police say there is no evidence of widespread fraud. 12) Likud branded it “Ra’amgate” and declared the election stolen. Ben-Gvir called for Arab party leaders to be arrested. 13) Netanyahu’s own aides were reportedly paid about $10 million by Qatar in the 2025 Qatargate affair. Arab citizens were filmed, made to wait outside polling stations and denied ballots, and they voted anyway. Now the government that tried to keep them home is asking whether their votes were bought. The suspicion is run by Netanyahu’s handpicked security chief and rests on a bribery case the police are dropping. This is all part of a long-term play to besmirch the Arab citizens of Israel and deprive them of their voice and eventually take away their voting rights. Meanwhile, the real corruption by Netanyahu and his cronies, who genuinely took money from Qatar, goes unpunished.

The Netanyahu plan to turn this loss into a victory has the following components: 1) Continue to completely deligitimize any cooperation with the Arab parties as a betrayal of the Jewish people, making the idea of a minority government with Raam and the Joint List too toxic to consider. It is working. 2) Focus on bringing Bennet and Liberman into the coalition by contrasting ruling with the right to ruling with the Arabs and leveraging security crises to do so. Possible turn to Eizenkot as well. 3) He is not afraid of another round of elections which will leave him in power at least until spring. At that time Arab enthusiasm will wane, fewer Israelis will come back from abroad to vote, Winter will not run again, turnout will go down and he will do better. That gives him leverage. 4) Use security crises, especially a war in Iran, and support from Trump to leverage and force Bennet, Liberman, and Eizenkot in for "patriotic" reasons. His hapless rivals see it coming and cannot stop it. Like a fly trapped in the web of a spider, they can struggle, but they cannot get away.