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Smart-money flow, decoded
Joined November 2021
🏆 the conviction board. live options flow — calls and puts, ranked 0-100 on 8 factors. 🔥 options returns after the board fired: $AAPL → +3,336%
$ASTS → +1,040%
$CRWV → +956%
$NBIS → +540% full log (wins AND losses) public. ✅ free · no signup · no email 👉 algoxflow.com/conviction
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$TTWO is green 0.99% — and $2.0M of options premium got sold. Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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Reporting Tue, and what options are pricing: $CRWV ±15.4% WIX ±15% FLY ±13.8% REZI ±12.8% MRCY ±12.7% We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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Reporting Mon, and what options are pricing: $ASTS ±12.6% RKLB ±10.9% ROIV ±10.8% CNH ±10.8% TGTX ±10% We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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Gold extends post-election gains as tumbling oil prices ease inflation fears
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THE 24 BIGGEST EARNINGS BETS THIS WEEK Tiered by the move options are actually pricing: EXTREME (14%+) - TWST, HTFL, LFTO HIGH (12-14%) - FLY, REZI, MRCY ELEVATED (9-12%) - NIQ, FIGR, AGRO MODERATE (under 9%) - EQX, BLTE, TNK $TWST is priced to move 17.8% in one session.
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$2.3M of net options premium sold in $SOXS today. Premium leaving all session. Worth knowing before you read the chart as strength.
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Most dealer gamma in the market right now: 1. $SPY +$1891M 2. QQQ +$1061M 3. IWM +$272M 4. AAPL +$212M 5. META +$145M Positive means dealers absorb moves. Negative means they feed them.
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Closed $META 652.5C-11/9 for +85% 🟢 Posted live in the room — entry and exit, not a screenshot after the fact. 3 of 3 closed green today. We post the reds too.
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$HIMS — our read, and what the crowd thinks: Flip null. Call wall 24.5. Trading 23.19. 82% of the crowd is bullish. That tells you who's already in — the flip at null tells you what has to hold.
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$DIA — 523.48 Put wall 517. Call wall 534. Which one gets touched first? 👇
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Calls vs puts in today's 8 biggest options prints: Calls: $651k across 4 prints Puts: $508k across 2 prints Largest: $NVDA 120P for $380k. Positions, not confirmed direction. The feed doesn't say who's buying or selling.
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$5.4M OF PUTS HIT META TODAY The biggest options bets on the tape: CALLS BOUGHT (bullish bets) - NVDA, PLTR PUTS BOUGHT (bearish bets) - META, MRVL, AVGO Size is conviction. It is not intent.
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Biggest sweep on the tape right now: $META 625 PUT 2027-03-19 $5.4M in premium Bought at the ask — someone paid up to get filled now rather than wait.
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3 of 3 closed green today. $META 652.5C-11/9 +85% SPCX 139C-11/9 +32% MU 740C-11/9 +44% Entry and exit both posted live. Reds included — that's the point.
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$MSFT over 5 years. Buy the close, sell the open: 50.29% Buy the open, sell the close: 9.57% Buy and hold: 64.68% The move happens while the market is shut. Not a strategy, spreads eat it, but that is where it lives.
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Biggest moves the options market is pricing into 2026-11-13: 1. $NFLX ±3.5% 2. DIA ±1.67% 3. META ±1.12% 4. AAPL ±0.75% 5. QQQ ±0.68% That's the straddle, not a forecast. It's what you're paying for.
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$TTD — our read, and what the crowd thinks: Spot 15.04 · flip 12.75 · call wall 15 The crowd can be 77% anything. We'd rather know where the hedging flips.
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$2.8M of net options premium bought in $IONQ today. That's real money leaning long, not just a green candle.
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$NFLX — 63.69 Put wall 60. Call wall 67. Which one gets touched first? 👇
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Ionis plummets as it cuts 2026 revenue guidance for Tryngolza $SPY 750.25, above its 747.68 flip. Hedging fades the move.
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