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🏆 the conviction board.
live options flow — calls and puts, ranked 0-100 on 8 factors.
🔥 options returns after the board fired:
$AAPL → +3,336%
$ASTS → +1,040%
$CRWV → +956%
$NBIS → +540%
full log (wins AND losses) public.
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👉 algoxflow.com/conviction
$TTWO is green 0.99% — and $2.0M of options premium got sold.
Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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Reporting Tue, and what options are pricing:
$CRWV ±15.4%
WIX ±15%
FLY ±13.8%
REZI ±12.8%
MRCY ±12.7%
We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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Reporting Mon, and what options are pricing:
$ASTS ±12.6%
RKLB ±10.9%
ROIV ±10.8%
CNH ±10.8%
TGTX ±10%
We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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THE 24 BIGGEST EARNINGS BETS THIS WEEK
Tiered by the move options are actually pricing:
EXTREME (14%+) - TWST, HTFL, LFTO
HIGH (12-14%) - FLY, REZI, MRCY
ELEVATED (9-12%) - NIQ, FIGR, AGRO
MODERATE (under 9%) - EQX, BLTE, TNK
$TWST is priced to move 17.8% in one session.
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$2.3M of net options premium sold in $SOXS today.
Premium leaving all session. Worth knowing before you read the chart as strength.
650
Most dealer gamma in the market right now:
1. $SPY +$1891M
2. QQQ +$1061M
3. IWM +$272M
4. AAPL +$212M
5. META +$145M
Positive means dealers absorb moves. Negative means they feed them.
Closed $META 652.5C-11/9 for +85% 🟢
Posted live in the room — entry and exit, not a screenshot after the fact.
3 of 3 closed green today. We post the reds too.
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$HIMS — our read, and what the crowd thinks:
Flip null. Call wall 24.5. Trading 23.19.
82% of the crowd is bullish. That tells you who's already in — the flip at null tells you what has to hold.
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$DIA — 523.48
Put wall 517. Call wall 534.
Which one gets touched first? 👇
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Calls vs puts in today's 8 biggest options prints:
Calls: $651k across 4 prints
Puts: $508k across 2 prints
Largest: $NVDA 120P for $380k.
Positions, not confirmed direction. The feed doesn't say who's buying or selling.
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$5.4M OF PUTS HIT META TODAY
The biggest options bets on the tape:
CALLS BOUGHT (bullish bets) - NVDA, PLTR
PUTS BOUGHT (bearish bets) - META, MRVL, AVGO
Size is conviction. It is not intent.
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Biggest sweep on the tape right now:
$META 625 PUT 2027-03-19
$5.4M in premium
Bought at the ask — someone paid up to get filled now rather than wait.
461
3 of 3 closed green today.
$META 652.5C-11/9 +85%
SPCX 139C-11/9 +32%
MU 740C-11/9 +44%
Entry and exit both posted live. Reds included — that's the point.
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$MSFT over 5 years.
Buy the close, sell the open: 50.29%
Buy the open, sell the close: 9.57%
Buy and hold: 64.68%
The move happens while the market is shut. Not a strategy, spreads eat it, but that is where it lives.
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Biggest moves the options market is pricing into 2026-11-13:
1. $NFLX ±3.5%
2. DIA ±1.67%
3. META ±1.12%
4. AAPL ±0.75%
5. QQQ ±0.68%
That's the straddle, not a forecast. It's what you're paying for.
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$TTD — our read, and what the crowd thinks:
Spot 15.04 · flip 12.75 · call wall 15
The crowd can be 77% anything. We'd rather know where the hedging flips.
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$2.8M of net options premium bought in $IONQ today.
That's real money leaning long, not just a green candle.
528
Ionis plummets as it cuts 2026 revenue guidance for Tryngolza
$SPY 750.25, above its 747.68 flip. Hedging fades the move.
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