Andrés Malamud

What a comeback. We will need time to properly understand it. But I think this was a 20th century politician who, at the very last possible moment, figured out how to run a 21st century campaign. After his first round loss, Lula started carrying a smartphone for the first time in his life, brought in younger aides who knew how to run a real digital operation, and finally was able to create some excitement in one of the world’s most terminally online countries. The net result was 3 million more people who turned out to vote, fewer spoiled ballots, votes from third-party candidates, and some repented bolsonaristas as well. Flávio Bolsonaro challenged the results, but he faces an extremely difficult battle. The margin of victory, more than 4 million votes, was too large to be explained by the delay in polling stations closing or any other abnormalities. Big Brazilian power brokers, including the so-called Centrão, are dutifully accepting the result. The Bolsonaros will ask the White House for support, but it’s important that the vast majority of Latin American leaders, including those on the right like Keiko Fujimori and José Antonio Kast, quickly recognized Lula’s victory. They concluded this is over, and the Trump administration may do the same. For Lula, the good news is that he won, and the bad news is that he won. He ran up a big bill to help make this happen: More than $60 billion in extra spending, welfare payments, debt forgiveness and other fiscal largesse. This in a country with real interest rates above 8% and a debt burden forecast to reach 83% of GDP this year, up a whopping 12 percentage points in Lula’s term. Markets are hemorrhaging in the hours after his victory, and they may get worse until Lula details his plans to cut spending. Lula also faces the most conservative Congress on record, a skeptical business community, and consumers who are struggling under huge debts as well. But look, Lula would rather deal with those problems than the alternative. He will be the man who defined an entire half-century of Brazilian history, from the metalworkers’ strike he led as a labor union leader in 1979 to the end of his fourth term in 2030. A truly epic story that is still being written, and may yet bring more surprises. -- For more, including reactions from @DaniCamp0 and Alessandra Ribeiro: americasquarterly.org/articl…