Update for $BTC Plans, scenarios, expecations.

A lot of people are posting previous cycle corrections as though Bitcoin is guaranteed to mirror them perfectly. That is a big mistake. This cycle is different, whether people like it or not. We have retraced roughly 50% of the entire bear market decline, something we have never seen before. Add in the largest short-liquidation event from 62K to 80K, and the context is completely different. You cannot compare cycles that saw 77–80% drawdowns and then expect the same depth of corrections now. We bottomed around -54%. That materially changes the scale of pullbacks we should expect throughout the bull market. The implication is simple: corrections are likely to be shallower than in previous cycles. Expecting identical downside because an old fractal looks similar is the same linear thinking that had people convinced Bitcoin would follow the exact same cycle pattern forever. I was one of the first to recognise that the cycles were speeding up, meaning an earlier bottom, and positioned accordingly. Posting a fractal without accounting for the wider context is narrow minded analysis. In 2023, BTC dropped 77%. During the recovery from 16K to 69K, the deepest correction was roughly 21%. This cycle, BTC only dropped 54%, around one third less severe. Applying that same logic, a 21% correction reduced by one-third would put the largest pullback closer to 14%. A 14% drop from the 87K highs puts $BTC almost precisely at 75K. And thats if we get the full blown corrrection from 87K. It could be from 95K down to 80K. It's to soon to say. So even in a full-scale correction from here, we are only around 6% away from that level. Are you really willing to miss a potential 60% move higher because you are waiting for an extra 6% lower? I wouldn’t be. Larger capital clearly isn’t either. I still believe the 92-95K region is where we could see a more meaningful, broader correction, but it may simply take time to get there. For those still waiting on 70K: based on the maths, the context, and the way this cycle has behaved, there is a real chance we never see it again. Even another test of 75K would be a gift. You need to adjust your mindset if you expect corrections to mirror prior cycles. This cycle has already been structurally different from the moment it bottomed. This is Wall Street’s asset now.

Plans change. That is trading. Initially, I was prepared to sit out and wait for the 80-82K area. However, seeing sentiment completely fall apart while we are still holding the exact same range is telling. We have also just wiped out roughly 750M in longs on this move down. To me, this looks like a healthy market cleanse, a brief deleveraging event. We dropped 6% from the highs, so I have decided to re-enter with a 10x long. In bull markets, the "ideal" sweep or perfect entry often never comes. The level everyone is waiting for is the one price does not need to revisit. From experience, I would rather position slightly ahead of the herd than be left waiting for a level that doesn't have to be tested. That is why I have re-entered the position just 0.75% lower.

This is where you start bidding, anon. But let the herd scare you into believing otherwise. In due time, I’ll see you on the other side, just like every single time before.

The same people who shorted $BTC all the way from 67K to 87K are now celebrating because the price is finally seeing a small correction. They convince themselves they’re just looking for a bullish retest, but deep down, all they really want is to make back everything they lost in one trade. And the irony is that their inability to control their own greed is exactly what got them fucked in the first place. They haven’t learned a damn thing. And that’s exactly why the same shit will happen again.

What if $BTC just keeps going up till midterms? Every midterm cycle, we have seen BTC perform negatively afterwards. So, why not wait for the midterms to actually approach then react to the price action. Atleast, that is what I am doing.

There is no worse feeling than watching $BTC pump without you. Unfortunately, we are at the peak stage of disbelief despite a significant shift in trend. Any downside should be bought aggressively and quickly. Keep leverage low. If you want to make big money, you need to trade like big money. In the 2023 bull market, if you longed every sweep of the established low, the deepest deviation below it was just 8%. Some only being 4-5% before pushing right back up again. That means 7–10x lev longs around prior lows can be relatively safe for the move towards ATH, provided risk is managed properly. It is mathematics. Study. Our current established low is 82.5K, and based on historical behaviour, the expected deviation should be minimal.