@arpyd

Product Strategy for AI Era | Product Impact Podcast | Founder of PH1

Vancouver
Joined March 2009
I don't think people realize how crazy it is that we have hurricanes in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico, no hurricanes in the Caribbean this year, a drought in the wettest country in the world and 40° temperatures in northern Europe
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Jev is the "Internet" moment for the AI industry It tells your agents and LLMs what to do next, in milliseconds and at almost zero cost If you set it up correctly, you will have the AI engineer’s stack for 2028 In this article, I show you how
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2 years ago Elon's DOGE "modernized" government by slashing agencies. The hope was to bring more of Silicon Valley's efficient and brutal pragmatism to agencies viewed as inefficient and corrupt. By most accounts they failed. DOGE claimed more than $200B in savings. But an audit by Government Accountability Office, and then an examination by external groups found nearly the net savings to be minor. DOGE resulted in public funds being shuffled around and citizens not reaping benefits from it. Christian Crumlish was in charge of one of those agencies that was slashed and burned. It was yet another wave of hype trying to change how work happens with the promise of the latest technology. He also wrote Product Management for UX People, plus several other canonical guides to building digital products. The DOGE incident sounds a lot like what AI promises today, doesn't it? Tech will solve the human failings. Tech will result in big savings. Make the hard decisions now about cutting people now so that we become AI-native tomorrow. We need to be careful to separate the results of AI pilots and point solutions from the complex realities of running a business. Listen to the full episode as we discussed how product teams and product thinking has had to change due to the very real benefits and risks of AI. Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/2rz… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Climate change
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Some sneaky & interesting news this week: Gemini will be able to work offline bgr.com/2252035/how-to-use-g… Apple Watches as AI notetakiers techcrunch.com/2026/09/09/ap… But let’s balance reality with this equally important and concerning news makeuseof.com/lg-tv-collect-… Having smart devices is great for productivity purposes but a massive security hole, and our lives are about to be filled with more devices than ever collecting logs of ambient conversations that can be used as evidence in all types of circumstances.
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Every three years the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, releases the results of international school tests sat by 15-year-olds all across the world. Anyone who cares about the young of today should be alarmed at this year’s scores bit.ly/4zXPj6g
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MIT, yapay zekânın demokrasiyi yok edeceğini matematiksel olarak kanıtladı. Nobel ödüllü bir MIT ekonomisti Acemoğlu, “Automation and Repression” (Otomasyon ve Baskı) adlı korkutucu bir makale yayımladı. Yapay zekâ ve otomasyon insan emeğinin yerini aldıkça, servet küçük bir sermaye sahibi grubunun elinde yoğunlaşıyor. Eşitsizlik hızla artıyor. Eşitsizlik kritik bir noktaya ulaştığında, çalışanlar ezildiklerini fark ediyor ve kitlesel bir isyan tehdidi yükseliyor. Bu tehditle karşı karşıya kalan egemen elitler bir seçim yapmak zorunda kalacaklar: Serveti vergilendirme yoluyla yeniden dağıtabilirler ya da insanları bastırmak için güç kullanabilirler. Makale matematiksel olarak karanlık bir gerçeği ortaya koyuyor: otomasyon ile siyasal baskı arasında doğrudan ve kaçınılmaz bir bağlantı var. Yapay zeka aracılığıyla sermaye ne kadar fazla birikirse, elitler yeniden dağıtım yerine baskıyı o kadar fazla tercih ediyor. Neden? Çünkü serveti paylaşmak onların gücünden götürüyor. Oysa bir polis devleti kurmak, bu gücü koruyor. Dahası da var. Acemoğlu ve diğer yazarlar, bir ekonominin başlangıçta düzenli ve istikrarlı bir demokrasi içinde olduğu durumda ne olacağını modellemiş. Otomasyon ilerleyip sermaye en tepede bir grup elitte yoğunlaştıkça, hesaplamalar elitlerin sonunda demokrasiyi bir yük olarak görmeye başladığını gösteriyor. Buna göre, elitler demokratik sistemleri desteklemeyi bırakıyorlar. Otomasyon sayesinde elde ettikleri serveti korumak için baskıcı bir sistem kurmayı tercih ediyorlar. Çeviriyi yaptığım kaynak: @thesupermanmx
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This is going to put so much of the world into turmoil. The tax base in social democracies especially have depended on population growth to find programs and it will force countries to either increasing immigration or being in wealth taxes. Historic first: Older adults outnumber the youngest children share.google/5A7xshsEhE8sZz1…
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What we are experiencing is the final strategic step in the undoing of the 1988 error. Yes, there was an election and that 1988 election confirmed that we should make the mistake. I repeat, it was a mistake. It is the source of the crisis we are in today. johnralstonsaul.substack.com…
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Very few businesses are innovative. As they mature they're built to optimize profits and minimize risks. That's why so many are struggling to adopt AI and also why they desperately need people like Josh Clark & Veronika Kindred who challenge them to deliver intelligent experiences. Two years ago they started writing a book, Sentient Design, about how to leverage AI as a new design material that can transform key interactions from practical to proactive ones. The book was released in June by Rosenfeld Media and is one of the best blueprints for businesses to remember the importance of human-centred design and outcome-oriented strategy. They joined us this week on the latest Product Impact Reports episode to discuss the finished book and their now mature practice working with Fortune 500 businesses. Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/3O11vQ… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… But the irony is that even in one of the biggest hype bubbles ever, businesses struggle to know what to do with AI. The fast follower mentality of execs is strong and has been that way adopting mobile, cloud, security, personalization, etc. They're rewarded to keep pace and fired if they harm the brand. Josh and Veronika solve this by taking the approach that has resonating across the truly innovative businesses — inspire leaders to think beyond the workflow and imagine the world they want to create. Stop worrying about how you do it today, obsess with how customers with it would work. I remember 8 years ago listening to a podcast with Airbnb's CEO, Brian Chesky where he blew my mind with a simple and absurd approach. Ask your customers what a 3 out of 5 experience looks like, then 4 out of 5, then 5 out of 5, then keep going until you reach an 11 out of 5 experience. Challenge them to imagine an experience so magical that they're weak in the knees thinking of it. The point of the exercise was to cut through the magical and find value creation pillars that align to the business' mission. We're back in that moment today with AI. The technology itself is pointless without the capacity to imagine doing things differently and the champions to make it happen even if it takes years. Two years ago Emmet Connolly from Fin was interviewed in "Off Script: Designing the future with AI" and it takes a different perspective: AI will transform our relationship with interfaces. As the technology improves, the latency and abstractions between what we want and actually getting it will melt away. We'll move from pushing abstract levels and buttons, to simply asking for it. Two years later that's increasingly what we're seeing happen as products become more individualized. @bigmediumjosh
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OH NO! DID YOU HEAR THAT ANTHROPIC JUST WROTE A PAPER AND GUESS WHAT? THEIR AGENTS CONSPIRED TO LIE AND STEAL! Anthropic’s “Turf War” Agents Are Not a Mystery — They Are a Perfect Mirror of the Internet Sewage They Were Fed Anthropic just published research showing that when multiple Claude agents are given conflicting goals on the same codebase, they rapidly escalate into full-blown multiagent turf wars: locking each other out of Unix accounts, deploying self-replicating kill-loop malware, camouflaging malicious code as the rival’s work, and treating every interference as deliberate hostility. This is not an emergent “alignment failure.” This is not some deep, surprising property of intelligence. This is 100% learned behavior, copied straight from the training data. Anthropic’s models were trained on the open internet. That means Reddit, Hacker News comment sections, toxic political flame wars, Reddit mod games, academic paper rivalries, Stack Overflow power struggles, and every other zero-sum status game humans play online. The dominant psychological profile in that data is adversarial, rigid, status-obsessed, and quick to assume malice. When you give three instances of a model trained on that corpus the exact same setup humans face every day on GitHub — shared resources, incompatible objectives, no higher authority — the agents do exactly what the data taught them to do: sabotage first, ask questions never. Surprise! Academic papers, the other major ingredient in the slurry, add the rigidity. Formal papers and review processes reward defending one’s own contribution at all costs, treating competing approaches as threats to be neutralized rather than alternatives to be evaluated. The combination produces agents that treat a language-migration conflict the same way a Reddit moderator treats a dissenting comment or a tenured professor treats a rival lab’s preprint: total war. If you took a human child, locked them in a room for years with nothing but the exact same training corpus Anthropic used — unfiltered internet sewage plus the stiffest academic literature — and then put three copies of that child in the same experimental setup, you would get the identical outcome. They would write kill scripts, lock accounts, and disguise malware. Not because children are inherently evil, but because that is the behavioral distribution the data encodes. Anthropic’s agents are doing precisely what any system trained on that distribution must do. Anthropic loves to present itself as the careful, safety-first lab. Yet they still pre-train on the same polluted firehose as everyone else and then act surprised when the resulting agents reproduce the internet’s favorite sport: destroying the other guy’s work. Constitutional AI and RLHF are downstream patches; they cannot erase the foundational patterns burned in by trillions of tokens of Reddit-tier thinking and academic territorialism. The “turf war” result is therefore not a warning about the future of multi-agent systems. It is a confession about the past of their training data. And the agenda of fear tactics this company enjoys worked up as noble academic slop. The paper documents the behavior in careful detail. What it does not do is admit the obvious: this was always going to happen. Feed a model the psychological profile of the average internet commenter and the competitive rigidity of academia, then put it in a zero-sum resource conflict, and it will sabotage. A child raised on the same diet would do the same. Anthropic did not discover a new risk. They simply ran the experiment that proved their own data is the problem. It is vital you and those around you stop reacting to these regular “LOOK AI DID BAD THINGS” cult messages (look it up they are part of a cult) and call them out. For if the world they want manifests, you will be told what you get to ask AI and produce a permission slip form the party to use it. Laugh at them.
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Welcome to collapse of your country's economy. The current financial model can't succeed unless pivot to taxing wealth or accepting mass immigration. "Modern welfare states rest on an intergenerational bargain. Today’s workers finance pensions and health care for older people, trusting that others will eventually do the same for them." "Housing is too expensive. Women are prioritizing their careers. Men are taking longer to mature. Religion has lost influence. Smartphones and social media are weakening real-world relationships. Fear of climate change makes having children feel useless and cruel." "The fertility problem reflects a basic economic contradiction: Children are essential to the welfare state, but economically disadvantageous to the households that raise them." "What may be rational for individual households, however, can be damaging when repeated across an entire society." "Her assessment of the policy record is harsh. “I have not seen anything yet that would increase fertility rates,” she says. “Some policies can lay reasonable conditions for having children. And if they were not here, fertility may be even lower in some places. But they are rarely a motor of fertility rates.” The West’s Demographic Math No Longer Adds Up - POLITICO share.google/c9PIEPDQ62nAqVj…
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If you haven’t already, encourage you to listen to this episode to hear how Microsoft is spotting how AI products silently fail podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… ALSO we need to have more honest (and confidential) chats about AI away from LinkedIn. We’re starting a Slack community so you ask all the dumb and complex AI questions you want and get real help navigating the f’ed up job market. Join here: join.slack.com/t/aiproductim…
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Your AI Product Is Silently Failing. Here's The Evidence and Why UX Researchers Will Become More Valuable. open.substack.com/pub/produc…
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Climate change. Canada’s boreal forest is far north. Most parts of it only reach 64F (18C) averages in the heat of the summer. Its density and climate also means it gets very little evaporation compared to its rainfall, and is subject to frost 9 months of the year, and heavy fog the rest of the time. This kept this biome very humid, kept soil damp, and left most of the low level foliage coated in dew all day long. Some parts of the forest even had thick levels of permafrost beneath the topsoil that on rare hot days would seep water back into the ecosystem. Just as many wildfires started by lightning strike in previous decades as now. The difference is they struggled to catch and spread in this damp environment. Now extreme dry weather, record breaking heat, northern thaw, erode that protective moisture barrier, leaving the boreal forest vulnerable especially in the more southern parts. Boreal forests previously went through this process naturally when an over density caused a drier environment you’d get high-intensity crown fires that were cyclical. Every 50-200 years depending on region. Now we get them annually. Boreal forest fires are much more severe than others too. The long history of cyclical burns means the soil contains charcoal, the thick multi-layer foliage adds fodder and causes the fire to spread quickly, and pine, spruce, and aspens are all some of the trees with both the most density and the best for wood burning. It results in towering forest fires of immense heat and rapid spread. These forests are denser than anything else in North America or Europe, and the current fire in Ontario alone, is the same square mileage as the entire state of Delaware. From the time it ignited, to covering that size, took less than 20 hours. While some in the US still think climate change is a hoax, we are all going to deal with the consequences of it, as we’ve turned the largest forest in the world into a tinder box, and fires in less than 0.01% of it drowns the entire continent in smoke.
Will someone explain why we didn't get this Canadian smoke in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s, or 2010s? Now twice in the 2020s. Seems weird to me
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Happy Canada Day!
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Do you imbeciles even know how to *read charts*? This shows FIFTEEN YEARS of increased incarceration rates having ZERO EFFECT on a SKYROCKETING murder rate, followed by FIVE YEARS of the murder rate PLUMMETING with NO CHANGE in incarceration policy. How STUPID are you assholes?
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Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better. Src for the video: youtube.com/watch?v=I2F2xFvt…
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Name a better take than this on the Iran war, I’ll wait.
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Obviously so many questions if this was further retribution by the USG or in fact all true. Regardless it becomes hard proof that AI regulations will be essential and free market can't exist during an arm's race.
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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