Independent thinker + cultural commentary + Am Yisrael Chai
Joined April 2022
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youtube.com/shorts/ywcf6JCwE…. The compassion cult. Maybe he’ll get laid before she eats him
The future is unpredictable, but it’s fun to speculate.
The Super El Niño has my attention for the 2026/27 season. That said, there are some interesting modulating factors working against a purely super-stormy outcome for Southern California.
The negative PDO (with warmer water concentrated in the western Pacific) and the historically early Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) forecast for early November both tend to work against the classic Aleutian storm track dropping as far south as it otherwise might under a strong El Niño alone.
I’m just curious whether there’s a negative feedback loop at play here—one that modulates what could otherwise be a more dramatic event. The European ensemble is still quite wet for SoCal, but the full package of influences looks a bit more tempered.
🤖 Made with AI
My finished color weather graph ended up feeling like an accidental metaphor for the midterms. The pure Super El Niño seasonal forecast (blue) paints a picture of monsters and climate calamity. When the same forecast is tempered by the moderating factors that rarely get airtime, the picture looks different—more balanced. The point I’m making with the graph is that a return to health and equilibrium is the default pattern. It’s built into living systems, and you can see the same homeostasis in nature. The alternative is to choose the opposite.
Nancy retweeted
Israel is neither the cause nor cure for antisemitism.
It just gave the Jewish people the power to fight back.
Nancy retweeted
We can deal with an anti-Israel President by appealing to American interests. What we can’t deal with is an anti-American President.
I never forget for a minute that if it weren’t for Elon Musk buying X, there would be no October surprise. In 2020 the Hunter Biden laptop story had the makings of a genuine October surprise—emails and documents that were later authenticated and used in court—but Twitter blocked the links, locked the New York Post’s account, and Facebook throttled distribution. Fifty-one former intelligence officials, coordinated after contact with the Biden campaign, publicly labeled it as having “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation,” giving Joe Biden a ready talking point in the final debate. That combination of platform suppression and institutional framing blunted the story’s reach in a close election. Under Musk’s ownership of X, the same kind of material would have circulated freely instead of being throttled, which is exactly why this year’s October surprise exists at all. I feel much more hopeful this time around.
The Alaska 'Decoy Candidate' Scandal, Explained youtu.be/TwbPVEo7g2s?is=72K3… via @YouTube
🤖 Made with AI
This is a really good read on why many establishment democrats are not vigorously defending Ilhan Omar: youtu.be/V4AZoIl1J8M?is=pxpZ…
I learn a lot about a person by how they treat dogs and cats.
When Abdul El-Sayed was Detroit’s health director from 2015 to 2017, he oversaw Detroit Animal Care and Control and later boasted that his team had “rebuilt the animal control system.” Judicial Watch has been digging into what that actually looked like. According to records the Daily Mail obtained, nearly 4,680 dogs and cats were euthanized by the agency during the period he was in that post. In 2015 alone the numbers were especially stark: 1,988 dogs and 272 cats, for a total of 2,260 animals.
A former animal control officer, Brittany Roberts, described the place as a “dog slaughterhouse.” She alleged overcrowded and unsanitary conditions, inadequate care for sick and injured animals, poor record-keeping, and a failure to routinely scan for microchips before animals were put down. The city settled her whistleblower lawsuit for about $63,000.
Imagine your pet gets picked up, has a chip, and is euthanized without anyone even checking—then you never find out.
Judicial Watch filed a straightforward Michigan FOIA request for the annual euthanasia numbers from 2010 through 2025 and for any directives, memos, or protocols El-Sayed’s office sent to animal control about euthanizing dogs and cats. The city gave them the runaround, so Judicial Watch sued. When government won’t simply hand over the basic numbers and the written policies from the person who claimed to have fixed the system, it raises the obvious question about what else is in those files.
youtu.be/qnN105FFB2w?is=v3oE…
There’s Only One War That Matters
There’s a scene from Season 7, Episode 7 (“The Dragon and the Wolf”) where leaders representing the major factions of the Seven Kingdoms meet in the Dragonpit in King’s Landing (Cersei’s capital) to witness a captured wight for the first time. This is when they are all momentarily stunned and set aside their fights with each other long enough to recognize an existential threat that could destroy them all and their realms. In this analogy, the Islamists are the White Walkers: they want to destroy everything Western.
The Tide Turns
Ordinary people become extraordinary when they recognize evil for what it is and move against it, even as God remains in charge of time and has His hand on our destiny. When enough people on the ground are willing to name the thing and move against it, the tide can turn, and what seemed inevitable as another chapter of terror becomes a story of human triumph under a larger hand.
The terrorist pilot who studied the 9/11 hijackings to stage another 9/11-style attack just before the U.S. and Israeli elections inadvertently created an unexpected chapter in an ideological story of death: a hero’s story carrying all the elements of a great adventure—the kind of tale of human ingenuity and moral courage we all crave.
This does not mean those who act are assured success or spared suffering. It means that once a threshold is reached of people willing to see clearly and respond, timing is on our side and a story of triumph appears where none was seen coming.
• Prefer Republican / conservative-aligned candidates wherever one was available.
• Where there was no Republican option (non-partisan races, dual-Democrat races, etc.), choose the least progressive / more law-and-order option.
• Follow CA GOP positions on the propositions/measures.
• Vote NO on the judicial retentions (per the LAGOP recommendation noted in the guide).
That’s confusing. Look at what Alaska voters see on their ballot. There is a precinct rotation law that determines the order in which the candidates’ names are printed arbitrarily on Alaska ballots. At first glance, most people assume the first names listed are the major candidates.
🤖 Made with AI
I asked Grok to first isolate the typical modes of variability (such as El Niño, the PDO, etc.) from the baseline changes associated with climate change. Then, specifically analyze how those baseline changes interact with the mean mode drivers and how that interaction alters what we would otherwise expect in the seasonal forecast.
Please create a polished, photo-finished, color-coded chart with three vertical bars showing the 2026/27 rain forecast for California:
1. The first bar should show the prediction from the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
2. The second bar should show the prediction from the NOAA CPC ensemble.
3. The third bar should show a nuanced prediction that accounts for how climate-change baseline changes interact with the atmosphere and the modes of variability.
Just the Facts: Scott Galloway and Ben Shapiro Debate the American Dream youtu.be/A7_1Mqhmf4Y?is=0w7B… via @YouTube