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Brian Fremeau

@bcfremeau

College football possession efficiency and data visualization enthusiast

 South Bend, IN
bcftoys.com
Joined July 2009
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Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)Photo by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau)
I wrote a little bit about the extreme outliers that sometimes make preseason projections look foolish: bcftoys.com/whiteboard/outli…

outliers — BCF Toys

Preseason ratings and projections are just a (decent) starting point.

bcftoys.com
Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) profile pictureBrian Fremeau@bcfremeauAug 26
Preseason ratings are just a (decent) starting point.
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FEI ratings, supporting stats, and F+ ratings are updated through Week 8 results, and FEI Week 9 game projections are posted: bcftoys.com Preseason projection weights: 25% for teams that have played 6 FBS opponents; 18% (7 FBS opps); 11% (8 FBS opps)
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FEI top-10 with *no* preseason data included: 1. Notre Dame 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Alabama 5. Georgia 6. Ohio State 7. Utah 8. Indiana 9. Texas 10. BYU
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taps the "conferences are just scheduling arrangements between independents" sign
Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) profile pictureBill Connelly@ESPN_BillCOct 22
Ditching conference title games almost erases the meaning of conference titles, and they really do become simply groups with pooled media rights. If that's all they are, why wouldn't Miami, Ohio State, Michigan, etc., eventually go indie or form their own/smaller groups?
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FEI ratings, supporting stats, and F+ ratings are updated through Week 7 results, and FEI Week 8 game projections are posted: bcftoys.com Preseason projection weights: 33% for teams that have played 5 FBS opponents; 25% (6 FBS opps); 18% (7 FBS opps)
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Everyone in the top-5 is rated *worse* this week than last week, some *less worse* than others. College football!
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Inspecting the 31-17 final score in the NDSU-Nevada game: six touchdowns (including a 100-yard kick six return of a missed FG), two PATs, one 2-point conversion, four failed conversions (one of which was returned for a 2-point score), and two successful field goals
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In its 29-2 loss to USF on Saturday, Kent State became the first team since 2020 to score exactly two points in an FBS vs FBS game. USF also scored a safety to end the game. #Safetygami
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While we were freaking out about next year's 24-team playoff being full of "flawed teams that should have no business competing for a national championship", did we consider this year's 12-team playoff might have a bunch of those too?
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Strength of record (AWD, wins over expected wins for an average FBS team) through Week 6, per FEI: +3.75 Alabama +3.09 Georgia +2.91 Kentucky +2.84 ND +2.65 USC +2.62 Indiana +2.59 UCLA +2.55 Texas +2.53 Missouri +2.46 BYU
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FEI ratings, supporting stats, and F+ ratings are updated through Week 6 results, and FEI Week 7 game projections are up: bcftoys.com Preseason projection weights: 43% for teams that have played 4 FBS opponents; 33% (5 FBS opps); 25% (6 FBS opps); 18% (7 FBS opps)
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THIS IS NOT A DRILL
Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) profile pictureFootball Outsiders@fboutsidersOct 9
A note to the FO community
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Checking out @dadgumboxscores' new "Ratings Trends" tracker, nice at-a-glance interface and visuals: cfbtxt.com/ratings/trends/
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more replies
separation from the pack
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subscribe to Chris's newsletter while you're at it: blessyourchart.substack.com/
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Updated chart through Week 5 game data, the trend continues: 23.5 total possessions per FBS game in 2026
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Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) profile pictureBrian Fremeau@bcfremeauSep 15
The 2026 season is very young (only 100 FBS vs FBS games through Week 2), but the average number of possessions per game continues to trend downward.
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Introducing a new FEI data cut today: average game percentile ratings (i.e. how well have you played) and standard deviations (i.e. how consistently have you played) for each team's opp-adjusted game ratings (Overall, Off, Def, ST): bcftoys.com/2026-grs

2026 GR Standard Deviations — BCF Toys

bcftoys.com
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FEI ratings, supporting stats, and F+ ratings are updated through Week 5 results, and FEI Week 6 game projections are up: bcftoys.com Preseason projection weights: 54% for teams that have played 3 FBS opponents; 43% (4 FBS opps); 33% (5 FBS opps); 25% (6 FBS opps)
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Most positive FEI ratings change from preseason: +.67 NDSU +.61 New Mexico +.55 Georgia St +.47 Northwestern +.43 UMass +.42 UCLA +.41 Boise St +.40 Mississippi St +.37 Wisconsin +.36 Oregon St
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Most negative FEI ratings change from preseason: -.50 Western Kentucky -.47 Sacramento St -.47 Old Dominion -.42 UTEP -.39 Wyoming -.37 Rutgers -.36 Michigan -.36 Hawaii -.35 Navy -.34 Oregon
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