Chad BD

Interesting

THE DOT COM BUBBLE VERSUS THE “AI BUBBLE” VISUALIZED:

I have sold my remaining bitcoin. I bought it all in 2018. Over the past few years I have sold small amounts. Last week I sold the last of it. I had modest investments in Doge and Ethereum over the years but have long been out of those. The reason? All of my friends who were enthusiastic about crypto have refocused on AI and other tech. I don’t personally know anyone building exciting crypto projects. When @chamath and @Jason shared similar thoughts to me, I decided it was time to move on. bitcoin:native ethereum:native dogecoin:native

Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made. They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.

The AI bubble is now cancelled. Buckle up. Source: Anthropic S-1

Big news: we paid off Generate… “Generate’s support helped us unlock equity in our Dorothy projects, complete Dorothy 2 and acquire the Briscoe Wind Farm,” said John Belizaire, CEO of @SolunaHoldings $SLNH “Their team understood our business and backed us at an important stage of our growth. We’re grateful for that partnership as we mark the full repayment of this debt.” — Highlights •Generate debt fully repaid: $19.1 million repaid in August 2026; remaining balance repaid in October 2026. •$28.7 million of principal retired: Soluna has repaid $28.7 million of the $37.9 million in total company debt principal outstanding as of June 30, 2026. •Briscoe Wind Farm: Generate financing supported Soluna’s April 2026 acquisition of the Briscoe Wind Farm. •Facility terminated: The Generate credit facility has been terminated, and the liens on the related project assets have been released. — We keep pushin’. Learn more >>> solunacomputing.com/news/gen…

Elon just said that most neoclouds will eventually die. And we might already be seeing it play out. Even if AI is the biggest tech revolution of our lifetime, that doesn't mean every company building AI infrastructure will survive. Some will thrive. Many will struggle. Most will be liquidated. And we've seen this before during the internet boom. The internet changed the world, but plenty of companies that built the infrastructure went bankrupt along the way. This time won't be different.

We are witnessing pure panic. Why? Because $SLNH has a history of dilution and reverse splits. Fair enough. But the reason this happened before is due to being in bitcoin mining. It’s a shitty business. If Bitcoin crashes your revenue goes to zero, and it crashes every cycle. The AI data centre business has massive demand, hyperscales paying billions in rent for compute. demand will slow for many years. the agentic layer hasn’t even started yet. I don’t believe they are running the ATM right now. I think John is trying to get the stock back into compliance with these announcements. This deal with APLD was clearly announced early, hence the conditional closing date out into Dec. Let me be clear though, this is @jbelizaireCEO last chance. If he lets this thing spiral into dilution and reverse splits, it’s over. They’ll never get partnerships, tenants, investors. He has every incentive to get back into compliance and get the stock moving in the right direction. I think there lies the opportunity….