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NFL Play Of The Day☢️
Kenneth Walker III Over 89.5 Rushing Yards
67% Hit Rate This Season 🎯
❤️Like If You Are Tailing
Kenneth Walker has cleared this number in 4 of his 6 games this season, averaging 116.8 rushing yards per game. He’s been an every down workhorse for Kansas City, commanding nearly 75% of the backfield’s rush attempts, and he draws a Denver run defense that’s been middle of the pack against the position this year.
On The Season Walker Is Averaging.
-116.8 Rushing Yards Per Game
-20.0 Attempts Per Game
-5.6 Yards Per Carry
-75% Rush Share
Denver ranks 21st in the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs at 102.9 per game, a favorable number for a back who’s getting this much volume on a weekly basis.
Last 5 RBs Vs Denver.
-Kyren Williams 88 Rushing Yards
-Christian McCaffrey 52 Rushing Yards
-Emanuel Wilson 52 Rushing Yards
-Bam Knight 48 Rushing Yards
-Omarion Hampton 33 Rushing Yards
None of the last five backs to face Denver have actually cleared this number outright, Kyren Williams came the closest at 88. That said, none of those backs are operating with anywhere near Walker’s workload, he’s out touching every name on that list by a wide margin, and his season average alone sits nearly 30 yards clear of this line.
Kansas City has leaned on Walker as the engine of this offense all year, and with a defense that’s been giving up a manageable number to the position, he’s set up to keep that workhorse role going this week. I like him to get back over this number.
Hammering This Over🔨
Bhayshul Tuten Over 83.5 Rush+Rec Yards
83% Hit Rate This Season 🎯
50❤️ For My NFL Play Of The Day
Bhayshul Tuten has cleared this number in 5 of his last 6 games, and he’s been even more dominant at home specifically, clearing 83.5 in all 4 of his home games this season at a 90.3 yard average, a big deal with Jacksonville hosting Indianapolis this week. He’s firmly entrenched as the Jaguars’ workhorse back heading into a game they’re favored by double digits to win.
On The Season Tuten Is Averaging.
-64.7 Rushing Yards Per Game
-15.7 Attempts Per Game
-4.2 Yards Per Carry
And Through The Air.
-21.0 Receiving Yards Per Game
-2.3 Targets Per Game
-2.2 Receptions Per Game
Indianapolis ranks 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs at 95.6 per game, and 27th in receiving yards allowed to the position at 38.7 per game, a soft combination overall against the running back position.
Last 5 RB Vs Indianapolis.
-Jaylen Warren (PIT) 188 Yards
-Tony Pollard (TEN) 76 Yards
-Jordan Mason (MIN) 68 Yards
-David Montgomery (HOU) 48 Yards
-Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) 50 Yards
Only one of the last five backs to face Indianapolis has actually cleared this number outright, so the recent game log alone doesn’t make the case. This one leans more on role, game script, and a defense that’s been giving up chunks on a per play basis than on straight history against this opponent.
Indianapolis is allowing more than 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the 11th most rushing yards allowed in the league, and the Colts have traded away both Quinton Nelson and Forest Buckner, thinning out their roster further. Jacksonville is a double digit favorite with the week’s fourth highest implied total, pointing toward a positive game script that should keep Tuten’s volume high deep into the fourth quarter, and it’s exactly the kind of spot where he profiles as an explosive, big play threat rather than just a volume back.
Prize Picks 5 Guy Burger and Fries🍔
NFL Sunday🔥
Jaylen Warren Over 90.5 Yards
Bhayshul Tuten Over 83.5 Yards
Zay Flowers Over 85.5 Rec Yards
Kenneth Walker Over 89.5 Rush Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Yards
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6 Plays I LOVE For SUNDAY...
$100 into $3,500, NFL Sunday
1. Josh Allen Anytime TD. He has 8 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, and he scored twice the last time he played Baltimore. He's coming off his only game this season without a score, in one of the highest totals of the week. When the Bills get inside the 2, you know where the ball is going.
2. Parker Washington...
NFL Late Night Play🌙
Zay Flowers Over 85.5 Receiving Yards
50% Hit Rate This Season 🎯
50❤️ For My NFL Play Of The Day
Zay Flowers has cleared this number in 3 of his last 6 games, coming off a monster 137 yard outing against Cincinnati last week, and he remains Baltimore’s clear top target by a wide margin. This week he draws a Buffalo defense that’s been getting torched through the air all season.
On The Season Zay Is Averaging.
-101.3 Receiving Yards Per Game
-8.8 Targets Per Game
-11.5 Yards Per Target
-26.8% Team Target Share
Buffalo ranks 26th in the league in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, giving up 173.8 per game, one of the more generous units in the NFL through the air.
Last 5 WRs Vs Buffalo.
-Tre Tucker (LV) 97 Receiving Yards
-Puka Nacua (LA) 138 Receiving Yards
-Romeo Doubs (NE) 58 Receiving Yards
-Tre’ Harris (LAC) 76 Receiving Yards
Three of the last four receivers to face Buffalo have cleared 75 plus yards, two of them well past this number, and Flowers target share alone gives him a real path to join them. As Baltimore’s top option in an offense that should be throwing plenty, his floor through the air should be high enough to clear 85.5 even on a tougher down.
Buffalo’s pass defense has completely come apart recently, allowing the second most pass yards per game in the NFL and 348 per game over their last two outings specifically. Every quarterback to face them this season has thrown for at least 226 yards, including back to back 300 plus yard performances, and with Lamar Jackson healthy and no injury designation, this profiles as exactly the kind of game where Baltimore’s passing attack, and Flowers as its top target, can have a big day.
6 Plays I LOVE For SUNDAY...
$100 into $3,500, NFL Sunday
1. Josh Allen Anytime TD. He has 8 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, and he scored twice the last time he played Baltimore. He's coming off his only game this season without a score, in one of the highest totals of the week. When the Bills get inside the 2, you know where the ball is going.
2. Parker Washington...
6. Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards. He's coming off 300 yards against San Francisco, and now he gets Philly at home.
The Eagles rank 26th against the pass at 240 yards per game, and without Jalen Hurts, their offense won't be holding the ball like it used to.
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Drew Mestemaker O300.5 Pass Yards✅✅✅
CASHHH The CFB POTD💰
Another Saturday another 300+ passing night out of Drew. He logs 323 passing yards in a solid night.
2-1 Night.
❤️LIKE & FOLLOW IF YOU TAILED!!!
CFB Play Of The Day☢️
Drew Mestemaker Over 300.5 Passing Yards
86% Hit Rate This Season 🎯
❤️Like If You Are Tailing
Drew has thrown for 300 or more in 6 straight games, averaging 347.5 passing yards in that stretch. His only miss this season was 241 in the opener at Tulsa, and he’s topped 360 in two of his last three, including 386 against Colorado last week.
On The Season Drew Is Averaging.
-332.3 Passing Yards Per Game
-34.1 Pass Attempts Per Game
-66% Completion Percentage
-9.7 Yards Per Attempt
-51% Team Pass Rate
Drew and the Cowboys head to Ames to take on Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium. The Cyclones rank 85th in pass defense, allowing 218.1 passing yards per game, which makes this a neutral matchup.
Best QB’s Vs Iowa State By Team.
-Noah Fifita (Arizona) 308 Passing Yards
-Bear Bachmeier (BYU) 329 Passing Yards
-Michael Hawkins (West Virginia) 227 Passing Yards
-Devon Dampier (Utah) 206 Passing Yards
-Jay Kastantin (Bowling Green) 97 Passing Yards
Drew followed head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Stillwater this offseason after leading the nation in passing yards in 2025, and he’s picked up right where he left off in the Big 12. During this 6-game run he’s completing 67% of his passes on 31.7 attempts per game with a 198 passer rating. Iowa State has also given up big numbers to the two best passing offenses it has faced, with Bear Bachmeier throwing for 329 and Noah Fifita for 308 in back-to-back road games.
The volume is what makes this number work, as Oklahoma State keeps putting the ball in Drew’s hands with nearly 34 pass attempts a game at close to 10 yards per throw. Iowa State’s pass defense sits in the middle of the pack nationally, and the Cyclones are breaking in a new head coach in Jimmy Rogers. With his 6 game streak of 300 yard games and an average more than 30 yards above this line, Drew is well positioned to clear 300.5 again.
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Noah Fifita O255.5 Pass Yards✅✅✅
CASHHH The Late Night Play💰
Fifita is on fire! He had a huge first half throwing for 216 yards, and then cashing this with 288 early in the 3rd quarter.
Great 1-0 Start.
❤️LIKE & FOLLOW IF YOU TAILED!!!
CFB Late Night Play🌙
Noah Fifita Over 255.5 Passing Yards
86% Hit Rate This Season 🎯
50❤️ For My CFB Play Of The Day
Noah has cleared this line in 6 of 7 games this season and in 5 straight, throwing for 284 or more in each of his last five. He’s coming off a 308 yard day against Iowa State and has 341 in his last road start at West Virginia, with Arizona’s offense leaning on his arm as much as anyone in the country.
On The Season Noah Is Averaging.
-294.9 Passing Yards Per Game
-32.1 Pass Attempts Per Game
-74% Completion Percentage
-9.2 Yards Per Attempt
-54% Team Pass Rate
Noah and the Wildcats head to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank 126th in pass defense, allowing 266.1 passing yards per game, which makes this a favorable matchup for the over.
Best QB’s Vs Texas Tech By Team.
-Isaac Wilson (Colorado) 290 Passing Yards
-Conner Weigman (Houston) 283 Passing Yards
-Mikey Keene (Arizona State) 256 Passing Yards
-Landyn Locke (Sam Houston) 195 Passing Yards
-JC French IV (Cincinnati) 172 Passing Yards
Noah returned for a fifth season after earning Big 12 offensive player honors last year with 3,228 yards and 29 touchdowns, and he’s been even sharper in 2026. He’s completing 74.2% of his passes, second in the nation, with 18 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, and Arizona ranks ninth nationally at 310.9 passing yards per game. Offensive coordinator Seth Doege also returns to Lubbock, where he ranks fourth in Texas Tech history in passing yards.
This is a big spot for both teams, with No. 22 Arizona and No. 13 Texas Tech both sitting at 6-1, and the Wildcats coming in as 3.5 point road underdogs. The Red Raiders lost six defenders to the NFL and just gave up 37 points to a Cincinnati team that Arizona beat 34 7, with Noah throwing for 284 in that game. He’s gone over 249.5 in 4 of his last 5 road games at a 289.6 average, and with an offense that throws on 54% of its plays, he’s well positioned to clear 255.5 again.
3 TD Scorers With INSANE Value For Your Parlays
$10 into $2,730, First TDs
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba First TD Scorer. He's scored in 3 of 4 home games this season, and he's getting 44% of Seattle's red zone targets. When the Seahawks get close early against Chicago, the ball is going to JSN.
2. Ashton Jeanty...
3. Bhayshul Tuten First TD Scorer. He scored twice last week, and he's cleared 60 yards in 5 of 6 games this season.
He's getting the work and finding the end zone, so when Jacksonville gets close early, he's the first look.
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