Jordan Cooper

“Going for 2 down 14” but instead of some dumb ex-player commentator, it’s nearly every political pundit.

Confirmation it’s indeed an AI election.

Election positions I'm sweating tonight: 🔷 House: 84c (-525) 🔷 Governors: 60c (-150) 🔷 Senate: 50c (+100) 🔷 Senate 52+: 34c (+194) 🔷 House 242+: 25c (+300) 🔶 Closest Sen KS: 5c (+1900) 🔶 Closest Gov TX: 5c (+1900) 🔷 Sen NC Cooper 7+: 56c (-127) 🔷 Sen OH Brown: 55c (-122) 🔷 Sen TX Talarico: 54c (-117) 🔷 Sen GA Ossoff 8+: 48c (+108) 🔷 Sen KS Hamilton: 35c (+186) 🔷 Sen SC Andrews: 23c (+335) 🔷 Gov OH Acton: 55c (-122) 🔷 Gov GA Bottoms: 52c (-108) 🔷 Gov NV Ford: 45c (+122) 🔷 Gov FL Jolly: 20c (+400) 🔷 Gov TX Hinojosa: 20c (+400) Also have a bunch of lower volume markets in margins of victory, congressional races, combos and other derivatives - almost all scooped up from July-Sept. De-risked out of a lot of stuff (including MI, ME, AK, IA) for a healthy profit, so it's going to be tough to lose too much on even a tail end downside outcome. Basically, the bluer the map, the better. Tune in to the @PredictQmkt election show tonight at 8:30pm ET where @JustinHerzig @jbresl @the_dean221 and I see what unfolds: youtube.com/live/PyPBcOMBm5Q

Will be posting positions I’m sweating tomorrow morning, but this is what I’ve got as the *modal* outcome, which hasn’t changed much since July, 🔷 House: D 242-193 🔷 Senate: D 52-48 🔷 Governors: D 27-23 Be aware this represents the most frequently occurring result, not the median or mean. Due to correlative factors, outcomes are not normally distributed. The map is GOP defensive, so it skews left. This means if the Dems outperform by 3 points, the House seats could skyrocket even if it only brings along one extra Senate seat. Conversely, if the Dems underperform by 3 points, their floor outcome is significantly higher and much less susceptible to collapse. Will be interested to see what @jbresl @the_dean221 had on tomorrow night’s @PredictQmkt election show. Subscribe and watch here: youtube.com/live/PyPBcOMBm5Q

Between political pundits and sports broadcasters, I don’t know who is worse at repeatedly misconstruing data or completely butchering basic statistical concepts.

The biggest benefit of PMs this election cycle compared to 2020 is that I don’t have to worry about getting stiffed on side bets made with J6 lunatics.

Tune in tomorrow night. By that point I’ll either be “told you so” victory lapping or “at least I got massive CLV” coping. Should be fun no matter what!

I’m putting the odds at -2000 that most of these accounts spend the next two months tweeting twenty times a day about election fraud, rigged voting machines, stolen ballots, deep state plots, etc. Still don’t believe most are real people.

Sharing this purely as anecdotal evidence. I play live poker upwards of 40 hours per week in Kentucky with mostly middle/old-aged white men that I’d gather lean heavily right. Two years ago, I would regularly see some in the card room with Trump (or adjacent) apparel and openly talking their support (even though most keep politics & religion away from the table). This year I can’t even remember the last time his name has been mentioned at all in positive light.

If you were waiting for the final NYT/Siena poll to drop before you bet, you’re still at least a full month too late. I don’t find much value on the board in high volume markets at the current prices and unless you’ve prepared a live trading process during ballot counts the night of, I’d recommend to sit it out.

The sheer amount of delusional election predictions (ie. 220-215 R House, 56-44 R Senate) I’ve seen on my FYP here has me convinced they’re mostly bots or engagement trolls despite the high follower counts.

Watch KY-06. It’s Barr’s vacated seat in the Lexington area and went Trump +15 in 2024. It’s currently tracked as a toss-up. IN-05 is another one. It’s an R+8 district in the affluent area north of Indy. Spartz should win, but by how much? Polls close at 6pm ET in both states.

Let’s see how good your election chops are. What close race’s return count will likely be the *earliest* predictor on how the night will go party-wise? (It’s fairly well known publicly already so I don’t believe there will be a live edge on it.) Get it right, win a cookie!

Every two years I’m convinced there won’t be as much dumb money on the election - and every time it shocks me how there still is seemingly. 🤷‍♂️

Haven't done a live show in quite a while, but I'll be on with @JustinHerzig @jbresl @the_dean221 for @PredictQmkt's midterm election night coverage Tuesday at 8:30pm ET. Subscribe to their YouTube channel and tune in: youtube.com/@PredictQmkt

You’re always looking for the best price unless the liquidity isn’t there to support your desired stake (which can happen with derivatives deep down the menu sometimes). For instance, if I price something at +120, I’d much rather get $5k down at +150 on a major PM than $200 down at +165 on an offshore book.

Big downside of PMs being more ubiquitous now is that the election betting markets are much tougher than they ever were before. The upside though is that the increased liquidity makes it much easier to get down larger sums on positions that have ample edge. It will be interesting, however, to see how live markets react on election night itself once returns start coming in.

Just got back from seeing You Can See everything. I’m a huge Nathan Fielder fan but found the film very disappointing.

An incredibly creative layout where Lambert undoes all the ring ropes to neutralize the use of Hangman’s finisher. But in the end the referee bends over to clear debris which allows Page to flip over him for the buckshot lariat putting Archer through the table.

I know it’s kayfabe but I think PAC’s death being the one thing that finally reunited Mox & Danielson to make amends was creatively brilliant. #AEWDynamite