Ahmad B.Merhi - أحمد بومرعي

فضفضة .. للأسف يتم الترويج وابراز شخص صغير في السن يتحدث بثقة عن الثراء السريع وتحقيق الملايين في غمضة عين ! بينما الحقيقة أن كل ما يطرحه مجرد أوهام وتسويق فارغ! فهو لا يملك شركة ، ولاحتى مؤسسة صغيرة ولا حتى راس مال ! —- احترموا على الاقل عقول الناس 🌷

🔴🔴اهرب بأموالك من بتكوين وأخواتها سريعا.. إيلون ماسك يعلق على فضيحة سرقة Binance المليارية الجديدة والمنشور الذي شرحته أدناه: “الذكاء الاصطناعي الفائق سيعمل الشيء نفسه حتى يكسب عملة لنفسه، وليس إنسان” 🔴🔴المقصود أنه في المستقبل، لما يصير عندنا وكلاء ذكاء اصطناعي متطورين جدًا (Agents)، راح يسوون حركات مثل هذي لوحدهم، بدون ما يأمرهم إنسان. 📌 رح يدرسون النظام، يكتشفون الثغرات أو الطرق الذكية (مثل استخدام الإقراض في DeFi عشان يحولون عملات قابلة للتجميد إلى عملات غير قابلة للتجميد)، ويكتسبون عملات أو موارد لأنفسهم، عشان يحققون أهدافهم الخاصة. 🔴🔴الخلاصة أن الذكاء الاصطناعي الفائق بدأ يعمل بشكل واضح في الجانب الشرير "هاكرز" وقريباً سيستغل ثغرات الكريبتو (وما أكثرها) لسرقة العملات ولا يمكن لأحد توقيفه أو ملاحقته لأن لا أحد يعلم أين موجودة هذه العملات.. اهرب 🏃 😁 . nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211600…

1/2 The fallacy of China being Japan, as far as consumption and the “debt trap” PLAY THE DAILY GRAPH (OPEN LINK) graphcall.com/execute?task=N… There is currently a triple-whammy impact of circumstances affecting the Chinese economy, which is masking structural changes. In recent years, China has had a combination of a real estate bust, a micro-credit bust hangover, and prolonged COVID scars, which put many small companies out of business and damaged balance sheets. As a result, many have predicted that China is Japan. But there are fundamental differences. Japan was never allowed to convert its USD acquired through trade into Gold. And it’s not even because of “Gold”, it’s because of double entry accounting. It would be the same with any non-double entry asset, non-financial asset. In other words an asset which is not a liability at the same time. (All Commodities fit in this category. Gold is the fittest commodity for that role. That’s it). And as explained by Rueff and others, is a transfer of wealth, NOT a duplication of purchasing power, which leaves the creditor country with a poor consumer wealth effect despite the trade surplus (Japan) because the creditor country is politically forced to do vendor financing endlessly. But China is NOT doing vendor financing, and that has excellent long-term consequences for consumption in China, and the opposite in the US, with inflation, a weakening currency versus the country that is not recycling, and higher nominal rates. Check Kenneth Rogoff; he knows, and he is not a newbie. The other factor which did not exist for Japan is the substitution of Oil for EVs in ground transportation, for both personal vehicles and trucks. This means a lot less income from consumers sent abroad just to be able to move from point A to point B. That’s the X-I in the GDP equation. Finally, there is the point made by Henry Thornton, which is that you can’t build your wealth by consuming it away; you have to save to form commercial capital. This notion has been forgotten, starting in 1922, with the political contraption of accepting FX as reserves, or vendor financing. This contraption/fallacy has blown up twice: first, in 1927, when Rist from Banque de France did not accept GBP currency in trade settlement anymore, and then by Rueff, when, in the mid-1960s, the countries of Europe (principally) did not accept the USD in trade settlement anymore (no vendor financing). The point made by Thornton is reflected in an economy where consumption as a percentage of GDP was structurally low AND, at the same time, where you find the highest consumption growth in the last 25 years in China. There is no paradox. If you save a lot to build capital, machinery, etc., you end up with a lot more commercial capital and a lot more goods, which during the fastest period of growth of the US were falling in price while wages were not really. All statistics point to wages rising much faster than prices in China in the last 15 years, and quite the opposite in many countries in the West. And if you believe Wall Street and LBO firms inflation is such a good thing. But coming back to China, this reality of massive consumption growth in China can not be debated. Why? It’s data. And that’s why consumption stocks are at such an interesting juncture in China. Once again the myopic analyst will take a spike in energy prices which evidently impacts consumption budgets as a “proof” that a structural problem is at play. Classical economists could serve well as “economic ophthalmologists”. But unless you can find straits of Hormuz to close every year or so, you can recreate the income shock. Besides this shock, while not easily reproducible, is followed by accelerated but continuous substitution of fossil fuels by EVs. Nathan Rothschild famously said: “Fortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon.” As per the framing of the credit cycle, Juglar was according to Schumpeter the greatest. Credit cycles follow one after another: Crisis => bank panic => bank run (short period) (Wealth management product bust / real estate bust, micro-lending bust in China) You have risk in interbank lending, and the money markets have to be ring-fenced. That’s what happened with Evergrande in China recently / Lehman in 2008. Then comes a period of liquidation / despondency / lack of animal spirits, with money going into cash balances. Interest rates are low; equity yields are very high in comparison to cash yields. Nobody wants “risks” precisely when it’s the least risky . Least risky = high equity yields. (China today or the US in Jan–Feb 2011) Then slowly, a new credit cycle starts: cash leaves the bank and enters the economy; velocity and credit appetite rise… … (Thomas Tooke has a fantastic explanation for the cycle in his 1826 book.) At the end of the cycle, leverage is everywhere; prudence has been thrown out of the window. The wildcat banks (Private Credit) have lent to excess. The turn is when people want to convert their invested assets back into monied capital. This is explained by Thomas Tooke, Lord Overstone, Ray Dalio, and Juglar. The redemption from the wildcat banks of the day is here, the credit spreads are here, the overheating in credit is here in the US, and the inversion of debt yields versus equity yields (opposite to 2011) is here too. At the end of the cycle everyone wants yields on stock precisely when there are not that attractive versus cash yields (Dalio reflected on that recently as well).

Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made. They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.

This is the most incredible exchange I have ever seen on an earnings call. It represents the best of investing. This kind of opportunity is accessible to everyone, including you and me. No PhD required. Was there luck involved? Sure. But was it lucky? Absolutely not. Being the type of investor who makes this kind of investment is the first step in capturing one.

We’ve raised $1.3M from YC & Afore Capital so you never have to type or speak again. Typing is slow. Talking into your computer is awkward. Subvocal fixes both Our glasses give you the speed of speech without you making a sound or touching a keyboard. It tracks your internal speech muscles with non-contact sensing and decodes silent, almost invisible mouthing into text at more than 200 words/min. Pre-orders are now live at: subvocal.co/preorder?utm_sou…