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flaneur

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Joined August 2021
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"Behind it all is surely an idea so simple, so beautiful, that when we grasp it - in a decade, a century, or a millennium - we will all say to each other, how could it have been otherwise?" - John Archibald Wheeler, Annals of the New York Academy of sciences (1986)
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A short manual on how to systematically increase your exposure to opportunity. (1/2)
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Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media
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Billionaires, oligarchs, and other uber-rich elites use offshore financial systems to hide their assets and identities. A recent study from 65 countries found three distinct patterns of how they do this: (1/16)
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When states discover oil, they’re hit with the resource curse — incentivizing them to stop investing in people. When we achieve AGI, we’ll face the intelligence curse:
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Playing “the game” of crypto is how you make wealth in this industry. And it’s hard af. As it should be. You play the game by, - Being early. - Placing high conviction, speculative bets. - Sizing large into those bets a few times a year. - Rotating. - Catching narrative shifts before they go mainstream. All with no guarantee of success. All with a ticking time bomb looming in the background. It's all gunna go to zero. You know this. What can you keep before it does? Most people go all-in on "the game" and accept that there's no guaranteed outcome. You live with constant pressure of making it now "before the music stops" You deal with immense stress. Anxiety. Sleepless nights. You watch your health decay. You withdraw from society. All while understanding there's a 99% chance you won't make it anyways. No one talks about how you can make the game easier for yourself. What if I told you that you could remove the ticking time bomb? What if I told you that you could reduce the stress, anxiety and impending sense of doom? Well, you can. - If you specialize. Specialization is its own uniquely difficult challenge that requires shorter term sacrifice for longer term stress relief. You must sacrifice some of the game in the name of specialization. Once you specialize it removes the burden of missing or fumbling. It puts chips on the table each week. For me, it was trading. I came into crypto as a tourist last cycle and got humbled several times. I eventually walked away with some money but realized it was only bc of the bull market. I had no underlying skill. If there was no bull market, I would make no money. My confidence was at an all time low. I understood that if there was another bull market I would face a similar choice. Make it or lose 4 years of my life. I made it my priority to never feel helpless again. I wanted to be able to trade any condition regardless of the market. I didn't want a 4 year time bomb. “Building in the bear” isn’t just some trite cope line. It's legitimately the key to your success. Had I not full time, no life traded the entirety of 2022 during those dogshit conditions I would not be where I am today. I owe everything to that sacrifice. Now, 4 years later after several profitable trading years. I will be the first to tell you that trading is NOT the most profitable strategy in crypto. Playing "the game" is. BUT trading allows me to consistently build chips. It reduces the stress and pressure of those hyper intense market situations. It makes me not give a single fuck about cycle tops or bottoms. Miss a rotation? Whatever. Miss a meta? Whatever. There's no shortage of opportunity if you can hang your hat on your skillset. It doesn't HAVE to be trading though. This industry has no shortage of opportunity. Build. Code. Research. Design. Mod. Edit. Meme. Art. Analysis. Content creator. Writer. Educator. Podcaster. Accounting. so on.. Make yourself into a weapon. If not today, then make sure you do it in "the bear market". Whatever it is, it’s your edge. It's your income. This repeatable skillset becomes your safety blanket. It’s how you extract value from the market consistently. Not just during hype cycles. Not just when your bags are mooning. It gives you durability. The ability to stay in the arena long enough to actually catch the big cycles. It gives you peace. It relieves the pressure of having to make it NOW and allows you to solve for longevity. Show up long enough and you will catch something. Generational wealth requires two things, time in the market and not blowing up. Most of you will blow up due to the pressure that the game induces. Playing “the game” might give you a shot at getting rich fast. But specializing is what keeps you here long enough to let time and experience do its job.
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Study the parts, and you’ve studied the system.
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UPDATED. Thanks for all the feedback on the previous iteration of this. Here's a list of the monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies you all recommended. What would you add or remove?
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People who succeed in trading usually do so by leaning on skills developed in other areas: General curiosity about games, systems, and mental frameworks, a strong sense of integrity, etc. Trading amplifies, exposes and teaches those interests and habits, but it rarely creates them from scratch. For me, this is mainly about first-principles thinking. It’s stripping away assumptions, inherited narratives, and surface-level trends to ask: What’s irreducible here? Markets teach this ruthlessly: any unjustified complexity gets you rekt. They demand simplicity. But simplicity is not the avoidance of complexity. It’s the product of deliberate refinement. By stripping away layers, you identify not just the actors, but the levers. Markets are a masterclass in this. But every domain (careers, art, politics, love, etc.) has its own “physics”. This abstraction leads to agency. When you understand the forces at play, you stop reacting to symptoms and start engaging with systems. Similarly, life’s ambiguities become navigable when you’ve rigorously defined your own terms: what matters, what’s negotiable, and what’s foundational. Markets teach you to think in tensions and trade-offs; life rewards you for applying that same rigor. Yet, this lens works both ways: the same rigor that grants agency also exposes the fragility of your assumptions. It humbles as much as it empowers.
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Incentives run the world. Morality, loyalty, even love, most collapse when pressure shifts and payoff disappears. Game theory teaches: the only loyalty you can trust is the one built on aligned self-interest and mutual benefit under pressure.
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1. Falsificationism (Adversarialism) 2. Operationalism (observables, testables) 3. Limits based reasoning and decidability. (outcomes) 4. Pursuit of truth first, and good only once truth has established limits.
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Jason Zweig: "Expertise is rooted in pattern recognition, and Buffett has seen every conceivable pattern. I estimate—conservatively, I believe—that Buffett has read more than 100,000 financial statements in his more-than-seven-decade career."
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The most important patterns: 1. Prisoner's Dilemma 2. Race to the Bottom 3. Free Rider Problem / Tragedy of the Commons / Collective Action 4. Zero Sum vs. Non-Zero Sum 5. Externalities / Principal Agent 6. Diminishing Returns 7. Evolutionarily Stable Strategy / Nash Equilibrium nitter.cf/JamieSmartCom/status/9…
.@BretWeinstein - you mention the 4 or 5 game theories people can study to improve thinking in your & @ericweinstein interview with @RubinReport - can you say a) what the 4 or 5 games are and b) recommend a source for people to spend a few hours learning about them from? Ta J
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An objective view of “Beauty” > the appearance of freedom > unconstrained by external force > full expression of internal form
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More in “History of Beauty” - Umberto Eco
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Physics sees through all lies perfectly
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The foundation of Retro futuristic imagery - Kubrick’s interior design
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There are no mistakes Only lessons
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Advice given to any young person: "I can't tell you what to do. I can tell who what I've done. I've instinctively never gotten into a zero-sum business, such as academia, sports, bureaucracy, etc. The mark of a zero-sum business is hierarchy." (Academia is a quarter position.)
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