caleb.bets 🍀

September is CLOSED 🫅🗣️ +29.72u Total | 40% ROI +13.89u in FIBA | 43.4% ROI Our futures settled, the women hooped around the world, and we had the best month this year!

Slim. Reaper. o22.5 Pts ✅ Cashed despite 4 missed free throws

Back to MVPiid 🤜🤛 Joel Embiid o28.5 PA | CZR -130 ‘FREE FRIDAY’ #4 | #ThrowTheBallUp Embiid with a 31% USG vs MIL, which is the only game without a PHI star (LeBron), so could repeat it here as Brown is taking up even more scoring usage. He has a 42% assist rate with Brown off With Maxey, Embiid is 32/38 to his PA mark with >26% usage and 30+ minutes.

Broken wrist in a major spread... Giddey u24.5 PRA | Caesars -115 10.30.26 Play #3 | #SeeRed Sub 23% usage in all games now and this wrist is just such a concern, cannot shoot well at all and have seen him reaggravate it on two separate games now. Bulls super deep roto so is limited hard in blowouts, which is far from unlikely given Boston just beat them by 35 and now Bulls on the road. He is 8/30 to this mark with under 24% usage, 24-32', and making 1 or fewer 3s.

Slim Reaper Halloweekend 👻 Kevin Durant o22.5 Pts | MGM -120 10.30.26 Play #2 | #allfire v #MFFL Sengun questionable with a back issue, and this is the first leg of a b2b for The Rockets. They already noted that both Adams (out) and VanVleet would miss one game of b2b sets, yet it seems more likely that'd be OKC tomorrow. Ime Udoka said Alperen Sengun felt something in his back in the first or second quarter of Monday’s game, but the adrenaline helped him play through it. Udoka added they’ll be cautious with his back and he’ll be out a few games at most. Not a real encouraging report so lean closer to a doubtful tag. Last meeting against Dallas was Houston's first of the season, and also the only game Durant covered his 23.5 Pts line off a season-high 16 shots. While Rockets staff said they'd prefer to monitor his minutes, he still ran 18 minutes in the 1H against MIL last game before a blowout. The Mavericks are showing both PJ Washington and Cooper Flagg as defensive options for Kevin Durant. While KD did have a ton of gravity upon catch inside the arc, he was allowed isolation above the break. The Mavericks so far are allowing above average rates of isolation and PPP to that playtype. Both teams play at a B10 PACE, which is better for KD as a halfcourt guy rather than high usage transition options of Amen, Tari and Sheppard. Durant is 20/23 since being on Houston when he sees 30+ minutes against a below average PACE team, so long as they don't rank Top 5 against Free Throws and vs Forwards.

Starting with BIG KESS w/ @austinsprops Walker Kessler o13.5 Pts | DK -118 10.30.26 Play #1 | #LakeShow v #DubNation Yaxel not on injury report at all despite his foot injury, with a lot of funny quotes to come from it, "[The foot] is awful. But I'm a gangster bro, so I'll be alright. You don't even gotta worry about me." - Yaxel “I was maybe worried about my foot, I guess would be my only excuse... it does not feel good right now. But, you know, I think I'll be good by tomorrow. I need a good day off, rest as much as possible, as much treatment as possible, and I think I should be fine.” - Yaxel, after 7 TOV vs MIN (with 26 Pts) He gets to rematch against Luka Doncic, who he said he "lost all respect for" with "all the whining and complaining" from the first meeting. Draymond after that game said that the next time Yaxel meets Luka, he should go right at him. Yaxel was the primary defender of Doncic in the first game, holding Luka to 1-5 shooting in that specific matchup, with that only make being a halfcourt heave to close the 1st Half. Luka only scored 5 points in the 2H while Reaves notched 15 and Kessler notched 12. Despite the loss, GSW likely keeps the same defensive scheme given how effective it was on Doncic. A lot of routes to go on from here. Yaxel ended with just 3 rebounds, Kessler with 26 Pts (12/12 shooting, with all 12 of those shots being dumpoffs or transition looks, highly efficient stuff. Kessler is only dealing with Draymond down low, who is already inclined to step up on Reaves/Luka drives, so has an advantage all game.

GO:OD AM! Happy Free Friday ladies and gents, one big slate before we all head off to Halloween and into November. Expect a lot from me today.

A fade in Lambeau Jordan Love u268.5 Pass Yds | HR -115 10.29.26 Play #1 | #GoPackGo The Packers welcomed back Josh Jacobs last week against The Lions, where he played 52% of snaps and logged 11 attempts for 36 yards. The Packers will be without two starting offensive lineman in C Rhyan and RG Glover. This is a problematic start for an up-the-gut rusher in Jacobs. The Panthers rush defense is posting the 2nd lowest STUFF% at just 15.9%, while also ranking B5 in OPP Explosive Rate, Success Rate, and YPC -- which is dead last at 5.13. Unsure why this is, but offense's that featured two RBs with 10+ carries were also the only one's to have a >4 YPC RB vs CAR: - Buccs: Irving 24-106 (4.4), Gainwell 14-88 (6.3) - Falcons: Bijan 16-75 (4.5), BRob 11-51 (4.6) - Bears: Swift 18-124 (6.9), Monangai 10-100 (10) Coverage wise, The Panthers are much stronger. They have forced the 2nd lowest average Time-To-Throw (TTT) of 2.43s, which is not only indicative of high pressure (6th), yet also at limiting deep shots (5th). This is a tough matchup for a Green Bay team that is 3rd in Deep Throw Rate. Green Bay is expected to have both their deep shot guys of Golden and Watson available for tonight. The duo each notch >70% of their routes out wide, while Carolina does allow the 4th highest TPRR to outside receivers. They just gave up 43 Points to Tampa Bay, the 2nd time this season they have given up 40+ Pts. Overall, Panthers are running the highest rate of single safety coverage. Jordan Love is one of three QBs to log 1000+ passing yards against 1-HI, though has a poor 3-3 TD/INT ratio. He has faced two teams this season Top 5 in Deep Throw Rate: - 197 Yds vs Buccaneers - 145 Yds vs Jets These are the only two games he went under. His last three weeks (DET, DAL, CHI) are all B5 in the same category.

10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT TNF W8: CAR v GB. 52°F, No Wind/Rain. 1) The Packers welcomed back Josh Jacobs last week against The Lions, where he played 52% of snaps and logged 11 attempts for 36 yards. The Packers will be without two starting offensive lineman in C Rhyan and RG Glover. This is a problematic start for an up-the-gut rusher in Jacobs. 2) The Panthers rush defense is posting the 2nd lowest STUFF% at just 15.9%, while also ranking B5 in OPP Explosive Rate, Success Rate, and YPC -- which is dead last at 5.13. Unsure why this is, but offense's that featured two RBs with 10+ carries were also the only one's to have a >4 YPC RB vs CAR: - Buccs: Irving 24-106 (4.4), Gainwell 14-88 (6.3) - Falcons: Bijan 16-75 (4.5), BRob 11-51 (4.6) - Bears: Swift 18-124 (6.9), Monangai 10-100 (10) 3) Coverage wise, The Panthers are much stronger. They have forced the 2nd lowest average Time-To-Throw (TTT) of 2.43s, which is not only indicative of high pressure (6th), yet also at limiting deep shots (5th). This is a tough matchup for a Green Bay team that is 3rd in Deep Throw Rate. 4) Green Bay is expected to have both their deep shot guys of Golden and Watson available for tonight. The duo each notch >70% of their routes out wide, while Carolina does allow the 4th highest TPRR to outside receivers. They just gave up 43 Points to Tampa Bay, the 2nd time this season they have given up 40+ Pts. 5) Overall, Panthers are running the highest rate of single safety coverage. Jordan Love is one of three QBs to log 1000+ passing yards against 1-HI, though has a poor 3-3 TD/INT ratio. He has faced two teams this season Top 5 in Deep Throw Rate: - 197 Yds vs Buccaneers - 145 Yds vs Jets These are the only two games he went under. His last three weeks (DET, DAL, CHI) are all B5 in the same category. 6) Panthers offense is healthy and coming off it's worst scoring output of the year. Until that point, Bryce Young had thrown for 280+ passing yards in every game. This also came with a 30+ yard completion in every game... 7) Packers' coverage defense shares the same strengths as Carolina, ranking 1st in Deep Throw Rate and 7th in Time to Throw. Young still struggles when facing pressure, with a low 32% completion rate and 1-2 TD/INT rate. 8) Where The Packers' coverage is targeted is much different, as they are Top 5 in 2-HI safety. This has came with above average target rates to RBs. Seen this position group have success: - Jahmyr Gibbs 5 Rec, 27 Yds - D’Andre Swift 4-30 - Roschon Johnson 5-34 - Kenneth Gainwell 2-22 - Bijan Robinson 2-19 - Breece Hall 5-63 Chuba Hubbard has ran >84% of snaps in all three Carolina games that ended within 3 scores. 9/10) KICKERS, D/ST & TRENDS! The Packers are giving up just 1 FGA per game this season, which of course is first in the league. Through their 7 games, only two kickers (Folk, Bates) have notched multiple FGA -- each with 2. Cowboys covered their spread on Monday Night, moving primetime (TNF/MNF) favorites to just 4-9 on the year. As you could imagine with two defenses that limit deep shots, the touchdowns they do allow are much shorter; Both rank B10 in RedZone scores allowed per game.

Atlanta wants this Game 7.

Recap | 10.29.26: ✅ - Ace Bailey o12.5 Pts | -112 ❌ - Hart o12.5 RA | -105 ❌ - Amen o7.5 Reb w/ SAS ML | -115 ❌ - Austin Reaves o5.5 assists | -110 Hart ends at 11, cashes reb side. Amen poor read, & Reaves ended up being hurt w/o Luka. WNBA Game 6 first, then NFL today.

Hustler in Chicago w/ @austinsprops Josh Hart o12.5 RA | MGM -105 10.28.26 Play #1 | #NewYorkForever Second leg of b2b for The Knicks, yet they ended up winning against The Pistons comfortably last night to earn their first win of the season. This could be the Josh Hart game, given these high-pace forwards are exactly the players to notch big stats against Chicago: - Tatum 23-7-6 (28min) - K. George 22-9-5 | Champagnie 11-14-4 - Kuzma 14-9-4 | Jaquez 19-11-5 - Barnes 23-6-5 (26') | Barrett 20-4-3 (26') Just a ton of stats to go around as Chicago loves to run, playing at a league-high 108.25 PACE and have a full 10-man rotation that can do so. He averaged 14.9 RA in b2bs last season where he had 20+ min and not facing a T5 assist defense. Can't say I'm made at OG's 7.5 RA line either, just a ton to go around. Hart has always been the high octane motor for this NYK lineup as he was O in 7/10 B2Bs last season. I’ll gladly back him in his first B2B of the year in by far his best RA matchup of the early season.

GO:OD AM! Who cashed this with us? Avdija o1.5 3s ✅ Avdija 3+ 3s (+304) ✅💎 3-0 so far with my guy Austin! Another coming today 🍀

Happy Deni Day w/ @austinsprops Avdija o1.5 3s | DK +101 10.27.26 Play #1 | #RipCity Deni is leaning into the 3PT shot more this season with Ja and Dame starting alongside him, for floor spacing purposes. “Obviously, you know, I'll have to play more off the ball. But it's not necessarily a bad thing. You know, I'll have more open shots. I'll have more straight line drives.” - Deni He faces a Lakers team who is allowing the 7th most CnS 3PA to kick off the year, and who he shot 3/9 & 5/8 against from deep last season. Shooters against LAL have came from the wings: - Lauri 5/11 | Sensabaugh 1/4 - DJJ 3/8 | Rui 3/6 It’s also worth noting he rolled up on his ankle the practice before opening night, he’s been playing through it but we’ve seen him hovering the 3 line significantly more which feels likely to continue as he’s looked slightly less effective attacking the rim than what we’re accustom to seeing. All in all this one has excellent upside for Avdija to get it done as one of POR’s best spacing options.

There is a world here where Kiah Stokes is the FMVP

Not a lot of people hyped for this one, but cash is cash 🫅🗣️ Burton o9.5 Pts ✅

Steph Curry o7.5 RA | DK -105 10.26.26 Play #2 | #DubNation Curry notched 19 Chances + Potentials against Memphis and now has a similarly favorable RA spot vs DEN, where he had 25 last meeting in addition to 25 FGA (42 Pts). Pelicans guard group of Fears (8 RA), Murray (12), Poole (10) and Murphy (10) against DEN in their latest game. The Nuggets don't have anyone to stay in front of Curry, but will have Braun be main assignment once again. Catching Jokic on second level resulted in good rolling action for Draymond -- who averaged 12.2 PPG v DEN last season, and 13 in the one with Curry. Therefore this also gives good reason to have Draymond in even more sets to force Jokic into decisions. The RA v Jokic system has lived on (Queen 10, Jordan 11, Chet 19, IHart 8, JayWil 10), with all Centers having 8+ despite only Chet seeing 25+ minutes. Now we have Lendeborg in the mix, who is averaging 4.3 APG this season yet has not logged one to Curry yet. Instead, Curry has been assisted 8 times, 5 from Draymond. Instead, his rebounds should be strong here.

Back to Golden State! Burton o9.5 Pts | Fanatics -125 10.26.26 Play #1 | #BallHalla Veronica Burton notched 20 total drives through Games 1-3 of the series, before going downhill 16 times in Game 4. After running 38', she notched 17 FGA, her second highest mark of the season. The Valkyrie rotation shrunk to 7 players in this must win spot, which is only the third time all season they've ran that few -- while ATL has ran 7 or fewer in 40 of 52 total games. Crazy different approach to lineups from these squads. This is by design, as The Dream were showing low pickup points on Burton along with help on Williams, so The Valks need a form of Burton that is aggressive enough to take advantage. Burton made just 4 of her 17 FGA, while actually missing all 7 of her Paint (non-Midrange) shots, though only 1 was blocked.

10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT: MNF W7: DAL v PHI. 57°F, no Wind/Rain. 1) We could get a fun one here on Monday Night, with two squads that are ranking B10 in scrimmage yards allowed per game, and with Dallas' road defense surrendering nearly 30 points a game this year. The Cowboys will be without RILB Dee Winters with a calf injury. 2) The Eagles are much worse on the injury front, with Jalen Hurts ruled out for the season due to blood clots. Now, their top 2 WR options in Smith and Wicks are out as well. Barkley is "trending towards playing", while Dickerson can also make his debut on the line after coming off IR. Those two are absolute musts here for PHI offense. 3) Thus, Tanner McKee is starting under center, and threw 45 times against The Panthers. This game was without Barkley, yet with the Smith & Wicks duo, so hard to rationalize that level of passing volume again. He gets the benefit of facing a DAL pass defense that is allowing a 68.5% completion rate, good for 30th. 4) Dallas' coverage is man heavy, running it on 47.3% of drop backs this season (4th). When you pair this with a team that is also generating the 4th lowest sack rate (12.9%), it translates to that aforementioned completion rate. Goedert generated 4 targets off 15 routes ran against Man last week with McKee throwing. The rest of the WR group (Wicks, Smith, Lemon) had 2 targets a piece. 5) Saquon has been a focus on trade conversations, and tonight will be running against the most porous rush defense so far, as if he needs to prove anything more about his rush ability. Dallas has allowed 899 rush yards this season -- most in the league. We have seen three backs run 15+ carries against them: - Skattebo 18 Att, 81 Yds - Henry 26 Att, 89 Yds - Irving 21 Att, 165 Yds All scored. 6) Will note that there is still upside for RB2 in Dameon Pierce, with Shipley and Bigsby both being on IR. With the entire backfield active in Week 2 against Titans, Bigsby ran 13 times as the backup. However, we saw no additional RB features when they went down early against CHI in Week 3, which leaves us in a pure boom-or-bust for Pierce based on script. 7) On the other end is Javonte Williams, who has already notched 8 touchdowns this season. Philly's front is B5 in Success Rate, yet notably as they are giving up a whopping 2.45 YAC/att. Javonte is ranked 23rd of the 50 backs with 30+ carries in YAC, and even worse in explosive rate (37th). He can post up a solid rush total tonight, but would expect that to come with high carry volume. 8) The Eagles are a mixed bag of coverages, not ranking in the Top 10 of Man, Zone, or in 1-HI/2-HI looks. However, they are Top 10 in Cover 3 usage, where they are allowing 7.53 Yds/DB (6th most). Prescott is 10th amongst QBs with 30+ drop backs in the same stat. 9) Prescott's top target vs Cover 3 this season has been George Pickens, by a wide margin too. He has a 38.5% target share, while responsible for 53% of the team's air yards. Rest of team distribution vs Cover 3: - Lamb 0.23 TPRR | 1.19 YPRR - Flournoy 0.16 TPRR | 1.06 YPRR - Ferguson 0.04 TPRR (23 Routes!) 10) KICKERS and TRENDS! Bears covered their -2.5 spread on Thursday Night, moving primetime (TNF/SNF) favorites to just 3-9 on the year. Of course, The Boys are favored here with Philly's injury report, yet by just 4.5 Pts. The two teams are tied at 25th in OPP RedZone scoring attempts per game, with 4 a piece.

Recap | 10.25.26: -0.05u ✅ - Luka o7.5 Ast | -128 ❌ - Bona u6.5 Reb | -117 🪶 A great wager and a piss poor one. MNF & a lot more NBA tomorrow