Carm’s Sports Betting Locks

THE BEST HEATER OF MY LIFE 🚀🚀🚀 - 7 straight winning days - Currently on a 20-4-1 run - 5 sweeps in the L9 days - 15-2 on 1st inning bets - 4-0 at plus-money And the best part is? Every play has been dropped FOR FREE 🫡 SHOW SOME MF LOVE WHAT A RUNNN 📈📈

NFL Week 8 SNF Player Prop #1 🏈 T. McKee o197.5 PASS YDS (-115 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units *Playable to 200+* - Not a huge sample size here but what McKee does have is a lot of volume and I think this line will be closer to ~220 going forward. McKee is over this line in all four career starts, with 35+ pass attempts in all four. One of which was in week 18 against Washington last year where he threw for 241 yards on 40 ATTEMPTS. The Commanders are allowing the 5th-most passing yards on the 5th-most attempts as 5/6 QB's have exceeded this line against them this season. And dating back to last season 10/12 with at least 30 attempts are over this line (McKee has 35+ in every start) and 12/14 are over with 20+ completions (McKee has at least 21 in every start). - What makes me even more confident that he'll have the same volume is the fact that the Eagles' RB room is a MESS with Saquon clearly injured and he's one of just two active RB's on the roster. Plus they're 5.5-point underdogs which further favors a passing game script, so I think this line is way too low as Sirianni clearly trusts him enough to throw 35+ times.

NFL Week 8 Player Prop #7 🏈 T. Kelce o43.5 REC YDS (-115 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units - No better time to buy in on Kelce as the Chiefs' WR room is a mess and he's always performed well in this matchup. Kelce is over this line in 15/20 games with Mahomes since last season (17/20 with 43+), and now they're without Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice is banged up. The Broncos are bottom-10 against TE's in receptions, yards, and Y/R as they've been torched by guys like McBride (10/111), Kittle (4/70), Higbee (8/62), and Kelce himself in week 1 (3/71). And Kelce LOVES this matchup with 43+ yards in 6 of the L7 matchups with Mahomes at QB. He also has 43+ yards in ALL 8 matchups against bottom-10 TE's since last year and we have a tight 1.5-point spread so this should be a competitive game where Kelce should get plenty of looks.

NFL Week 8 Player Prop #6 🏈 R. Stevenson o10.5 LONG REC (-115 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units *Treveyon Henderson now questionable* 👀 - There is a gap forming between Rhamondre Stevenson's snaps and TreVeyon Henderson's recently, and it's most apparent in the passing game. In the L3 weeks Henderson has ran just 18 routes total to Stevenson's 51, which has resulted in some big opportunities for Rhamondre. He's over this line in six straight road games with 17+ routes ran in EACH, and is over in 10 STRAIGHT games with 15+ routes run and he's averaging 18.6 per game. And last year he had a then CAREER-HIGH 88 receiving yards at Miami with a 55-yard catch and went over in both their H2H games. - Now they're obviously big favorites here so we're unlikely to get a good passing script. But the Dolphins allow BY FAR the highest completion % in the league (76.5%) when nobody else allows above 70%. They also allow the 4th-most RB receiving yards on the 3rd-most catches at the 7th-highest Y/R and the HIGHEST target % (22.9%). 5/6 RB1's to face Miami have seen at least 3 targets, which Rhamondre has had in 5/7 this year, and he's over this line in 11 STRAIGHT games with 3+ targets. So given his excellent catch % (85.2%) and that he's 8th amongst RB's in YAC, all we need is one here against an awful Dolphins defense.

Premier League Matchweek 9 Play 🐝 Brentford vs. 🌳 Nottingham Forest ⚽️ Brentford u15.5 shots (-120 Bet365) PL Record: 9-7 +0.93 units 📈 - 15.5 is a line that only the big boys should be getting, certainly not Brentford and certainly not against as stingy of a side as Forest. Brentford are under this line in 39/46 games since last season, and only City and Arsenal held them to FEWER shots than Forest did in their two fixtures last season, allowing just 10 shots in BOTH games. - Brentford really aren't a high-volume team, in fact only Sunderland average FEWER shots per game at home than Brentford have since last season (12.6). And Forest are great at preventing them on the road. Since last season, Forest have held ALL 15 TEAMS ranked 12th or worse on ClubElo (Brentford are 23rd) to 14 or fewer shots on the road. They've also held 8/8 sides to 13 or fewer shots to start this season under Glasner including far superior sides like Arsenal and Liverpool so I think this line is WAY too high and even playable at 14.5.

NFL Week 8 Player Prop #5 🏈 D. Knox u14.5 REC YDS (-115 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units *Down to 7.5 now, dropped Wednesday on Winible* - Dawson Knox's role under Joe Brady is completely different from what it was under McDermott and not in a good way. Knox is yet to surpass this line in six games this season, and that's not just bad luck. He's run just 96 routes, 2.4 fewer per game compared to last season, and these are not deep routes. Just ONCE in his 96 routes has he been targeted more than SEVEN yards downfield which isn't even halfway to this line. Amongst TE's with 80+ routes run he is LAST in yards per routes run (0.38) and 3rd-last in ADOT (4.0). In fact, he has 12 TOTAL air yards in 6 GAMES and he is obviously not much of a YAC threat so he's just not going to be a big play threat at all. Plus Baltimore allows the 6th-fewest yards to TE's on the FEWEST targets. 5/7 backup TE's are under this line against them, plus Buffalo are 3.5-point favorites which favors a better game script for us as Knox has no more than 7 yards receiving in their wins this year.

NFL Week 8 Player Prop #4 🏈 O. Cooper Jr. o18.5 LONG REC (-110 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units *Up to 20.5 now, dropped Tuesday on Winible* - This guy just has tremendous upside and I'm buying in as Geno LOVES him and this Raiders team is leaking big plays. Cooper has played 94 NFL snaps, he has run 52 routes, and despite that he already has FIVE catches of 16+ yards clearing this line in 3/3. Amongst receivers with 10+ catches he is FIRST in yards per catch and 2nd in YAC per reception at 9.3. And amongst receivers with 50+ routes run he is FIRST in yards per route run at a ridiculous 4.77 and 13th in targets per route run (0.27) so not only is he a YAC BEAST but Geno loves throwing to him. - The Raiders are allowing the 3rd-highest Y/R to WR's at 15.66 and have allowed the 2nd-MOST YAC despite allowing the 6th-fewest receptions as they're often trailing. And outside of the Rams who are in WR hell right now, every other team has had multiple receivers get 17+ yard catches against Vegas. We have a tight 1.5-point spread so we should get ample opportunities for Cooper whose ceiling is just so high, so I'll grab this line for an absolute electric rookie against a Raiders team allowing 15.7 yards per catch on AVERAGE.

NFL Week 8 Player Prop #3 🏈 J. Warren o13.5 LONG RUSH (-125 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units *Up to 15.5 now, dropped Tuesday on Winible* - As a diehard Browns fan, I know my team and I saw firsthand what Jaylen Warren did to us on TNF a month or so ago. Warren is over this line in 6/7 games this season and 9/10 dating back to last year, ranking 2nd in YPC (5.5), 8th in EPA/rush and success %, and 6th in yards after contact amongst RB's with 50+ carries. Which is why the return of Rico Dowdle is not affecting his touches as much as he's logged 40+ snaps (62%+) in six straight games now. - The Browns are allowing a lot of big plays on the ground this year, allowing the 4th-highest YPC to RB's as six straight have covered this line against them. And of the 7 RB1's they've faced, they've allowed a total of 11 RUNS of 14+ yards including EIGHT to the three RB's they've faced on the road (Irving 38 & 14, Allen 17, 18, & 22, Pollard 36, 14, & 17). And they already saw Jaylen Warren who had a 24 yard run against them and is over this line in 6/9 career meetings despite just 9.4 carries per game and now he has a 15.5 rush attempts line. And Warren is over in 9/13 career games with 14+ carries, plus we're more likely to have a good game script as they're 3.5-point favorites, so gotta ride the hot hand even against my team.

HOLY MORTAL LOCK 🔒 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120) ✅ How about ZERO rush attempts for Young, barely even left the pocket 🔥 Jacobs 52 yards on 27 touches is disgusting, right read wrong result there. He was over in 37/37 career games with 20+ carries prior 🤮🤮 NFL Sunday props otw, starting right now! 🫡

10/29/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Pelicans (-7.5) vs. Kings Chance to Cover: 46.9% Just one B2B today and none tomorrow. But we will have two eligible games on Saturday, and SIX on Monday 👀 Looking forward to our first big slate with the new algo 🔜

Week 8 Thursday Night Football Plays 🏈 🧀 J. Jacobs o75.5 RUSH+REC YDS (-115) 🐆 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 You can find all 7 of my NFL week 8 plays already on my FREE Winible, link below👇 winible.com/carmslocks LET’S HAVE A NIGHT BABY 🍻

NFL Week 8 TNF Player Prop #2 🏈 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120 Hard Rock) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 - Bryce Young's scramble rate has been slashed exponentially as he's gotten more comfortable throwing in the pocket. Since 2024, his scramble rate has dropped from 8.2% to 6.1% to this year's incredibly low 2.4%. He's now under this line in 16/22 starts since last season including 10/12 on the road, one of which was at Green Bay. And he's under in 7/8 vs. defenses allowing the bottom-10 fewest yards per carry to QB's and the Packers are allowing the 8th lowest. - 6/7 QB's to face Green Bay are under this line (the miss was Jalon Daniels) including 5/6 with a HIGHER scramble rate than Young. Only 3 of the 30 QB runs against Green Bay have gone for 9+ and ALL were Jalon Daniels who has the HIGHEST scramble rate in the NFL. So I’ll happily take this line as he’s running less than ever and also runs 25% less on the road in his career.

NFL Week 8 TNF Player Prop #1 🏈 J. Jacobs o75.5 RUSH+REC YDS (-115 DK/CZR) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 *Dropped on my Winible yesterday morning, up to 78.5 now* - Josh Jacobs is back as Green Bay's RB1 and I couldn't love the upside on this pick any more. In his first game back, Jacobs had 16 touches on 35 snaps (52%) with 91 total yards against a great Lions RB defense. Now he gets a Panthers run defense that has been hot garbage for years and got absolutely MAULED last week by Tampa. Jacobs is over this line in 22/29 games as a Packer when playing at least 40% snaps, including 13/14 at home and 10/11 against bottom-10 RB defenses and the Panthers have allowed the 3rd-most total yards to RB's. - SEVEN different RB's have exceeded this line against Carolina in six games with the only team to not have an RB do so was Philly when they started a 4th-stringer. Plus Jacobs had 100 yards on 21 touches in this exact matchup against them last year on a similar snap count (38) to Sunday's (35). Jacobs is over this line in 4/4 early week games as a Packer and averages 100 total yards per game on Thursday nights in his career. Carolina gave up 250 YARDS to Tampa's RB's on Sunday and are on a short week I think this line is agregiously low for Jacobs given the high usage he's seeing already.

10/28/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Pistons (-7.5) vs. Hornets Chance to Cover: 43.7% Team 2️⃣ Knicks (-7.5) @ Bulls Chance to Cover: 58.5% Team 3️⃣ Spurs (-12.5) @ Jazz Chance to Cover: 59.4% Team 4️⃣ Lakers (-4.5) @ Clippers Chance to Cover: 57.4% Nothing the algorithm likes, SO close to Spurs -12.5 after a blowout ln, but we’ll stay off. TNF props coming later today! 🤝

I posted SIX early NFL plays for week 8 yesterday, exclusively on my new Winible page 🤩 Those included our first Primetime doubleheader of the season for TNF tomorrow 👀 Who wants those today?? NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 Get my picks early for FREE with the link below👇 winible.com/s/c9gut2kj

BANG, first NBA algo play cashed 💰 Nets +11.5 (+104) ✅ Easy plus-money cash, never even got close to trailing by double-digits. Expect a lot more of this to come, this is the first of many! 🤝

10/27/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Celtics (-11.5) vs. Nets Chance to Cover: 24.7% Play: Nets +11.5 (+104 Novig) 💰 Running it back with a road underdog. Celtics yet to submit injury report, hopefully we get another few guys to sit the B2B. Time to get on the board 🎯

🤮🤮🤮 Beat the line by two points, deserved better as Phoenix misses their final shot to cover +9.5 🙄 Gotta stay the course, positive variance coming our way!