Casey seymour

The coffee market has experienced its first bout of price vertigo stemming from a lack of liquidity within the cash market from bankruptcies and bank credit line withdrawals etc. that is forcing hedge books to be unwound, a reduction in cash coffee inventories adding short term supply and an unwillingness of buyers to aggressively bid for coffee. A money problem happens in markets periodically when markets have historic moves as coffee has seen and it may take time to rework the plumbing of the industry. Under the surface however the market has chosen to ignore the building drought in core Brazil coffee areas that is showing no signs of abating at a key bean formation stage. Actual rainfall since Feb 1st through the models forecasting period would see the lowest rainfall amount since 1980. All models are in agreement. Our work indicates that a powerful La Nina Modoki (warmer east pacific sst's versus colder central pacific sst's) currently in place will remain and maintain this dry pattern at least through the end of March. Once the current liquidity issues in the coffee market subside the reality of what this weather situation means for reduced coffee production expectations in Brazil may take center stage for a new wave of enhanced price discovery. Time will tell. @Judy_Ganes @sizov_andre @ClimatePredict @abaxx_exchange @abaxx_tech @MarketToMarket @agritalk @PeterLBrandt @ChipFlory @JoshCrumb @aaronvalue @michellerookag @firefighter89 @DamianPMason @maxarmstrong @PearsonCattle @delaneyhowell07 @MovingIronLLC @USFarmReport @AoA_TalkShow @SusanNOBULL @DarinNewsom @BarchartAg @FarmFutures @FarmsNews @FarmIndustryNew