Cattlenomics

Thursday’s federally inspected slaughter data for the week ending October 17th showed an 8 pound week-over-week increase in steer carcass weights to 994 pounds, a new record-heavy average. 

Yesterday morning's import data suggests that a record-high volume of Argentinian beef was passed for US-entry last week, equating to 4,384 MT.  These weekly estimates suggest that year-to-date beef imports from Argentina have grown 48,580 MT from 2025. 

Retail positioning for the holiday season is in full swing. Foward sales, which will be available prior to the Q4 holidays, jumped 385 loads last week to 1,294 loads. This was 565 loads stronger than the same week in 2025.  

Texas Prime grading has fallen back into the single digits, at 8.36% as of October 3. Select grading has climbed back over 20% for the third time this year, to 20.27%. Does lower Prime suggest cattle are very current in Texas?

During the week ending September 25th, beef imports from Canada grew 11.1% to 8,174 MT, being the largest volume for any week since March 2024. 

 The comprehensive cutout value finished the week ending September 25, 2026 just 1.02% below the same week in 2025. With tighter fed beef supplies available, could cutout values finish the week above last year for the first time since July?

 US beef exports to China were at their largest volumes since March 2025 the week ending September 4th, 2026. Total volumes were shown at 1,513 MT. Do the restrictive tariff rates for Australia and now Brazil into China open the door for US exporters?

As of September 1, 2026 the Managed Money category, in the Corn market, had the largest net long position in the history of the COT report... while they were buying feeder cattle!

 YTD video sales are still trailing, with heifers down 66,153 head and steers down 41,843 head from 2025. However, August sales rebounded strongly, reaching 282,936 head and surpassing 2024 levels.

 The National Beef Featuring Rate at retail spiked at 96.0%. Will heightened beef featuring continue headed into the Labor Day holiday?

 The US continues to pull from a variety of sources to meet it's beef demand needs. Beef imports from Argentina notched new highs for 2026 the week ending August 8th at 3,467 MT. Year-to-date Argentine imports are up 152.5% compared to 2025.

Western Video’s Little America sale on August 10-11 moved a total of 45,748 head, including 21,815 cattle weighing 400-700 lbs. and 21,041 head in the 800-1000 lb. range. October delivery accounted for the heaviest volume, with 8,304 steers and 3,632 heifers in the lighter weight range. Steer-heifer spreads were tightest in October at $13.29 and the widest in September at $48.28, with solid secondary volume also seen in the Oct-Nov and November delivery period. 

July video auction heifer sales declined 26.6% year-over-year, roughly 70,848 head, indicating that limited heifer placements will continue.

Beef export sales to South Korea the week of July 30th were 96.5% or 4,741 MT higher than the week before. They finished at 9,317 MT, the third largest volume of 2026. This increase came just a week after Australia reportedly hit their safe-guard quota limits into South Korea, which opened the door for US exporters. 

 Prime grading is cooling off... but it's still running hot. National Prime grading slipped to 13.11% this week (down 1.1%) but remains 2.5% above last year and 3.6% above the five-year average.

 Packers saw the level aged load counts traded in 189A Tenderloins grow substantially last week. Moving some of this product now could allow for the seasonal run up in prices as packers get more "cleaned up" and fall retail planning gets under way.

Superior Video: Video Royale (July 27-30): 117,605 head sold - 75.9% in the 400-700 lb. range (60% steers), with November delivery leading volume.

Over the last month, the CME Feeder Index has hit the highest recorded price of $381.86 on June 23 and now the lowest price of the year of $350.72 July 23, a $31.14 decline with prices still dropping. 

The volume of beef that Brazil sent to the USA during June was the smallest so far in 2026. Over the last two months, the shipments per month have averaged roughly 12,000 MT less the earlier this year. Meanwhile BZ volume shipped to China has averaged 28% higher than last year over the last 3 months, while prices were up 28%. Have imports from Brazil already peaked for 2026?