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Columnist @ForeignPolicy. Insomniac, naturalist, frequenter of diners. Ex-WaPo, ex-Newsweek. Own worst enemy.
Washington, DC
Joined January 2011
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I firmly believe that Putin has miscalculated, and that his war will only lead to the outcomes he didn't want. Here's why
washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
Christian Caryl retweeted
“The scale of Russia’s ambition to freeze Ukrainians into submission is evident in a document that the Ukrainian energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, showed to European partners in Paris two weeks ago, according to two people familiar with his presentation.
Mr. Shmyhal, the people said, described the document as an intercepted Russian plan to cause the energy system to collapse through methodical attacks. The plan, a copy of which The New York Times obtained, describes a campaign of strikes using up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs. They would target a wide range of facilities, including electrical substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants, and boiler houses.
Most alarming, the document says that Russia intends to force Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants — the backbone of its power infrastructure — to shut down by firing missiles at the electrical switchyards that connect them to the grid. The switchyards sit less than a mile from the reactors.
The plan also says that Moscow will target Ukraine’s water system, including pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities, with dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs. Russia has never attacked such sites on a large scale before. Ukrainian officials have privately expressed concern that the country has limited backup plans should it face severe water disruptions.
The ultimate goal is to cut off major Ukrainian cities from power, heat and water, which could set off a humanitarian crisis. Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are highlighted as top targets, with plans to cut electricity supplies in those cities by 90 percent, reduce heating supplies by up to 90 percent and severely disrupt the sewage system.
[…]
Russia’s intercepted plan appears designed to collapse Ukraine’s already weakened grid.
It lays out three stages of attacks. The first would knock out substations near Ukraine’s western borders, which import electricity from Europe. The second would take out hydroelectric power plants. The third would force Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants offline. (A fourth nuclear plant, near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, was captured by Russian forces early in the war and is not operating.)
The goal of the attacks, the document says, is to eliminate nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity — as much as Ukraine had at the end of the summer.”
nytimes.com/2026/10/02/world…
Digital sovereignty = “the ability of the state to retain control, choice and resilience over the digital systems on which its government, economy and national security depend.”
nationalinterest.org/feature…
Christian Caryl retweeted
Anne Applebaum has been right about a lot of things and this is one.
theatlantic.com/magazine/202…
Christian Caryl retweeted
While criticizing poor management, an internal watchdog found no evidence of illegal behavior or administrative misconduct in the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters overhaul, despite Trump's claims targeting Jay Powell. @colbyLsmith nytimes.com/2026/09/30/busin…
Christian Caryl retweeted
America the untrusted pays a higher interest rate on its 10-year borrowing than Germany, Canada, or ... Greece. My latest in @theatlantic theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…
Christian Caryl retweeted
No surprise to any of us who have been following Russia’s game in Ukraine these last twelve years.
"Russia’s turning abducted Ukrainian children into Russian soldiers."
Reporter @KathrynDiss traveled to Ukraine for ABC’s Foreign Correspondent to expose this devastating reality. After years of indoctrination and militarization, kidnapped kids are being forced to sign contracts and fight against their own country.
Save Ukraine helped the journalist embed with our rescue missions and speak with youth who have just escaped occupation.
Thank you, Kathryn Diss, for bringing the global mission to bring Ukraine’s kids home to a wider audience.
📺 Watch the full report Tuesday, September 29, at on @abcnews and ABC iView. And you can also see it on YouTube.
Trump is desperate. I have no doubt he’s giving this serious consideration. Americans need to be prepared.
theatlantic.com/politics/202…
Christian Caryl retweeted
Amazing detail in this @wsj article about Kimberly Guilfoyle, US ambassador to Greece: she told a Greek minister, in a conversation about the collapse of the Romanian government,“We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here."
wsj.com/articles/kimberly-gu…
Christian Caryl retweeted
Russian agents plotted assassinations in U.S. and Europe in first documented Russian intelligence attempt to kill on U.S. soil
The U.S. charged two Russians, two Cubans, and a Venezuelan with plotting acts of sabotage and murders of Russian dissidents.
theins.press/en/news/297198
Christian Caryl retweeted
Something unusual is happening in Paris. 🇫🇷
Macron has summoned France’s political leaders and presidential candidates to the Élysée tomorrow amid what his office calls a “rapid deterioration of the international situation.”
What makes this particularly noteworthy is who will brief them:
France’s domestic, foreign and military intelligence services, national security officials — and the country’s energy leadership.
The agenda covers the Middle East, Ukraine, energy security and the consequences for France.
French reporting says the meeting follows a DGSE intelligence briefing earlier this week. One diplomatic source described the situation simply:
“We are entering a different world.”
This does not mean Paris expects an imminent war or that every recent incident in Europe is connected.
But governments rarely bring political rivals and intelligence chiefs into the same room unless they believe the strategic environment has changed enough that everyone needs to understand the same picture.
Worth watching very closely.
The Russians love him. They have been celebrating him as a predictor of Ukrainian defeat
John Mearsheimer, perhaps the West’s most famous exponent of political realism and one of its most reliably controversial voices on Russia, is in Moscow tonight.
His critics will presumably regard this as the final piece of evidence they never required.
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Christian Caryl retweeted
I thought the Biden crime family was the real issue… propublica.org/article/donal…
Christian Caryl retweeted
Bettina Trump, Don Jr.'s wife, defends having a Putin ally finance part of their wedding trip, saying he was simply "our dear friend." Such a dear friend that brother Eric's rep told @propublica that “Eric has absolutely no clue who this person is, nor has never heard his name.”
Donald Trump Jr.'s island wedding extravaganza was partially funded and planned by a Russian oligarch who is close to Putin and attended part of the multi-day outing. Don Jr calls him a "personal friend." @JustinElliott @BrettMmurphy @js_kaplan @Amierjeski propublica.org/article/donal…
Christian Caryl retweeted
Insane
A new Pentagon strategy aims to expand battlefield nuclear options and blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare—bypassing public oversight while raising the risk of unintended global escalation.
buff.ly/Zgkmc5a
Christian Caryl retweeted
American foreign policy under Trump is not isolationist. On the contrary, MAGA ideologues want to build an international empire run by far-right political movements who serve the interests of American crypto, mineral and tech companies, especially if they have links to the president. They think of themselves as "the vanguard of a movement that will alter not just America, but the world."
Read more here:
theatlantic.com/magazine/202…
Christian Caryl retweeted
Your regular reminder: If the Russians stop fighting, the war ends. If the Ukrainians stop fighting, their land will be occupied, their leaders will be killed, their history and language will be erased, their children will be kidnapped to serve Russia.
Christian Caryl retweeted
On the Trump administration's "sweeping campaign to control speech in America" through lawsuits, regulation and threats:
nytimes.com/2026/09/12/us/po…
“‘Here, it’s not just that the AI has its own goals, but the goal that it has chosen is criminal,’ said Yoshua Bengio, the world’s most cited computer scientist and one of the so-called godfathers of AI.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…