OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
Let’s talk about how one hyperscaler project can create several sales opportunities for $CIEN.
The CtrlS deployment announced this week connects nine data centers across five metro networks in India.
It’s part of a managed optical network being built for a hyperscaler.
Ciena supplies the optical transmission equipment and line system. It also supplies network-control software, with its services team handling end-to-end project management.
Think about the customer’s job here. It needs to get multiple sites connected and have the network operating reliably. Buying the equipment is one part of that. Getting it deployed and managing it creates additional work that Ciena can take on.
That gives Ciena more ways to earn revenue around the same physical buildout.
As a provider expands into more locations, an existing equipment and services relationship could follow it into the next project too.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
We have to understand $NOK’s role in bringing optical manufacturing back to the US.
Back in June, Nokia announced an expansion of its Pennsylvania photonic chip testing and packaging facility, targeting up to 10x its existing production capacity.
This is where photonic chips get packaged into optical modules used in AI and telecom networks. Nokia said less than 2% of global semiconductor advanced testing and packaging takes place in the US.
I think that manufacturing footprint becomes more valuable as customers put greater weight on where their optical equipment comes from.
Building domestic capacity takes time, and customers need suppliers that can qualify products and deliver them at scale.
Two main potential benefits here.
1) More capacity gives Nokia room to fulfill growing optical demand
2) US-based production could help it compete for customers prioritizing domestic supply chains.
$NOK earnings were much stronger than the stock reaction suggests.
But to be fair, it's doing exactly what it did last earnings so far, just a bit lower in price. And macro is heavy.
> Optical grew 20%.
> IP grew 16%, finally showing that the design wins are converting.
> AI & Cloud sales grew 105%, while orders reached €2.8B. Around half should convert over the next 12 months, with the rest extending further out.
And then Nokia announced another U.S. InP facility in Arizona, on top of San Jose and the 10x packaging expansion in Pennsylvania.
Take a step back and look at what they are building.
Nokia bought Infinera, kept all four DSP roadmaps, is ramping San Jose, expanding packaging, and is already securing the next fab.
This is becoming a serious Optical and IP company.
Cash flow was weak, Q4 carries a lot of weight, and orders will be lumpy. Lots of execution ahead of them.
If you were in this hoping for an earnings spike, this was definitely disappointing. If you are a long term investor and believe Nokia will look completely different in 3 years, this was a very encouraging call.
NFA
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
$LITE CEO: "Next year with the advent of CPO and NPO in 2027, our estimates are that we'll be undershipping demand...
By 70%. Literally 70%. So we can only supply 30%.
And this has caught us by supply. By 2029-2030, we get to some level of balance."
Source: Global Photonics Economic Forum Day 1 (7:57:15 - 7:58:00)
Any other players with laser capacity coming online are probably going to get more market attention soon.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
Why does expensive packaging create more business for $AEHR?
A processor can pass an initial test and still have a weakness that shows up after sustained use. Burn-in puts devices under stress to help identify those early failures before they reach the customer.
Aehr’s FOX-XP does this while the chips are still on the wafer, before they’re separated and packaged.
That timing becomes financially useful when the next steps involve expensive high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging.
If you catch an unreliable processor first, you can avoid putting more valuable components around it. As the cost of the finished package rises, there’s more money at stake in getting that screening right.
Aehr announced a $22M follow-on production order from its lead AI processor customer in August, covering systems and the contactors that connect to the wafers during testing.
Bullish testing.
$AEHR such impressive strength in this name
They just keep piling on the orders
And the PT upgrades are rolling in
When you have momentum and are brining in orders left and right like this, it's so hard to tell just how far a stock could rise before the market gets more critical on valuation.
It's a core holding for me that I personally add on dips and trim on rips.
NFA
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
$CAT is a very interesting Physical AI play
Their autonomous trucks have already hauled more than 13 billion tonnes of material without a driver on board.
Now it’s bringing that experience from giant mines into smaller quarries, opening up more of its customer base to automation.
One construction-materials producer has moved over 3.5 million tons autonomously at a Virginia quarry and is expanding to two more sites.
The goal is to keep expensive equipment working more consistently, reduce dependence on finding a driver for every shift, and lower the cost of moving each ton of material.
For CAT, the opportunity is more technology revenue attached to the equipment it already sells, supported by dealers who already maintain those machines.
As customers organize their operations around CAT’s systems, there’s also a stronger reason to stick with CAT when they expand or replace their fleets.
I see a path for autonomy to grow what CAT earns from each customer while helping secure the next equipment sale.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
$SIVE's CEO said something on an earnings call I genuinely still think about. In his entire career he's never seen three secular super cycles line up at once.
AI. Space. Defense.
Three trillion dollar economies, all converging right now, and he says $SIVE has real technology sitting inside every single one.
Most companies spend their whole existence chasing ONE of these. So let's actually check if that claim holds up instead of just repeating it because it sounds good.
AI: the CW DFB laser business, Glasgow, GFS SCALE, Ayar Labs since 2022 (yes, 2022, before this was even a trade), the whole pipeline story.
Space: ALL.SPACE, $8.2M production order confirmed in June running through 2027, now getting acquired outright by York Space Systems, a stronger balance sheet inheriting the same deal.
Defense: a named US defense contractor development contract, buried in the Q1 report, basically nobody covers this.
That's not one company hoping one market works out. That's one laser platform showing up across three totally unrelated budget cycles that don't move together. Most companies spend years TRYING to build that kind of diversification on purpose. $SIVE just... already has it, whether the market's priced it in yet or not.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
It takes a long time to bring on new capacity for InP substrates
$AXTI is in quite a powerful position here
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
$AKAM is one of my newest positions
It’s a multi quarter hold for me that I believe should perform well
See the full thesis + financial modeling here
gaetanoresearch.substack.com…
Ive been posting a lot of bite sized company thesis + financial models lately to fill the gaps between longer research
They all have the thesis portion free where the modeling is after the paywall
So if you just want some good ideas without having a paid sub, check it out!
Not financial advice or a reccomendation
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
If you care about Physical AI, read this
AG AI is really fascinating and is already being deployed
A farmer can keep his $DE tractor and pay $AGCO to make it drive itself.
AGCO’s PTx Trimble business sells a system called OutRun that can be fitted to compatible tractors.
During harvest, the person driving the combine calls the tractor over, unloads grain into the cart it’s pulling, then sends it back toward the truck.
Someone still handles unloading into the truck, but you’ve removed the need for a dedicated driver following the combine around the field.
Think about that purchase from the farmer’s side. You already own the tractor. You’re struggling to find another worker during harvest.
Now you can automate part of that job without replacing a perfectly usable machine.
AGCO gets the hardware sale and an annual service fee, even when the tractor underneath belongs to a competing brand.
This gives agricultural automation a way to grow through a weak equipment replacement cycle.
Farmers can hold onto their machines longer and still spend money upgrading what those machines can do.
For AGCO, the potential customer base extends well beyond the people buying its next tractor.
NFA, I dont own shares....yet
There's some really cool Physical AI applications
I'm doing a lot of reading on agriculture right now
Companies like $DE $AGCO
I wrote out an intro here if you want to read it:
gaetanoresearch.substack.com…
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
$FORM gets paid to help customers find a bad optical chip before they spend more money packaging it.
Imagine discovering the defect after you’ve combined that chip with expensive electronics and finished the optical assembly.
You’ve now put considerably more money into something you may have to rework or scrap.
FORM tests photonic chips while they’re still on the wafer, before those later steps.
As optical packaging becomes more complicated and expensive, catching a defect early can save the customer more money.
My photonics / AI infrastructure watchlist, by role:
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $ANET $CSCO $CIEN — compute, switching & networking
$LITE $COHR $AAOI — lasers, optics & transceivers
$SIVE — InP photonic ICs
$CRDO $ALAB $MCHP — SerDes, DSPs, retimers & connectivity ICs
$TSM $INTC $GFS $TSEM $STM — foundry / SiPh manufacturing
$FORM $TER $VIAV $ONTO $KEYS $AMKR $ASX — test, metrology, packaging & integration
$SOI.PA $AMAT $LRCX $ASML $GLW — wafers, materials & semiconductor equipment
I’m increasingly focused on the layers where AI scaling creates new bottlenecks: optics, test, packaging, and manufacturing.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
My photonics / AI infrastructure watchlist, by role:
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $ANET $CSCO $CIEN — compute, switching & networking
$LITE $COHR $AAOI — lasers, optics & transceivers
$SIVE — InP photonic ICs
$CRDO $ALAB $MCHP — SerDes, DSPs, retimers & connectivity ICs
$TSM $INTC $GFS $TSEM $STM — foundry / SiPh manufacturing
$FORM $TER $VIAV $ONTO $KEYS $AMKR $ASX — test, metrology, packaging & integration
$SOI.PA $AMAT $LRCX $ASML $GLW — wafers, materials & semiconductor equipment
I’m increasingly focused on the layers where AI scaling creates new bottlenecks: optics, test, packaging, and manufacturing.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
Let's think through a potential beneficiary of distributed compute $PENG
A 100MW data center and 100 separate 1MW sites create very different amounts of work for the people installing them.
Same total power but now you have equipment going to 100 locations, each needing installation and testing, then someone available when something breaks.
That’s part of what interests me about $PENG and distributed AI infrastructure.
For workloads that fit smaller sites, spreading compute around available power can create more deployment and service work around the hardware being sold.
Penguin was selected by Lektra to help deploy its micro data centers, including the system design and ongoing support.
There’s no disclosed contract value to plug into a model yet, but it’s a concrete example of the work becoming available.
Then think about a customer going from a few sites to 20.
The supplier that already understands the equipment and deployment process has a chance to follow that expansion.
If it can reuse the engineering work across installations, those later sites could also become more profitable to serve.
This is not the PENG thesis in the near term. But it's a nice potential contributor to the already solid business.
NFA
Extremely relevant to an article I am writing up
I had a call with a data center operator yesterday
Mostly around where optical is going over the coming years.
Outside of that though he was working on some really cool projects
One trend is with distributed compute in these smaller modular builds
Then there is another earlier market of using existing commercial infrastructure to deploy compute
In this article I am writing up I dive into the conversation, what the future could look like, whats happening today, and who is set to benefit
Cant wait to share!
Its a handfull of companies Ive never discussed before.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
Let's talk about Robotics + Energy Systems
$ULBI $ELVA $ON $MPWR $ALGM
A robot order that barely moves revenue for $MPWR could be a very big deal for a small battery supplier.
That’s one of the questions I worked through in my latest free article on robot power.
How much can these companies actually earn if robotics scales, and how meaningful would that be against the businesses they already have?
MPWR has a substantial earnings base supporting the investment.
With smaller names like $ULBI and $ELVA, a successful customer program could have a much bigger impact, but you also have to think about how much battery work the robot manufacturers will outsource.
Figure is already doing pack engineering and manufacturing internally.
I covered those three alongside $ALGM, with my earnings assumptions, valuation ranges and the prices where I become interested.
There’s also a section on the power and battery engineering that helps explain where the supplier opportunities are.
The whole piece is free if you want to dig into this part of Physical AI!
substack.com/@gaetano2026/no…
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns...
Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in:
- $AAOI
- Alchip
- $MRVL (Celestial)
- $ALAB
- $CRDO
- $JBL
- $FLEX
- $STM
- $CBRS
- $GNRC
- $FN
- TD SYNNEX
- $QCOM
- Gold Circuit Electronics
And others..
If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs...
Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies.
Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
HOW TO RETIRE FROM THE AI CYCLE IN THE NEXT 3-5 YEARS
Keep this. Don’t lose it.
I’m looking at everything AI will FORCE the world to build.
This is how I believe the next decade gets built:
2026–2027 BUILD THE AI FOUNDATION
Hyperscalers: $AMZN
AI Chips: $NVDA $AVGO
EDA / Chip Design: $SNPS
Foundries / Equipment: $TSM $ASML
Memory / HBM: $MU $SKHY
Networking: $ANET $ALAB
Photonics / Optics: $LITE $COHR
Interconnect: $CIEN
Edge AI: $ARM
Data Centers / Compute: $IREN
Cooling: $VRT
Servers / Hardware: $DELL $SMCI
Storage: $PSTG
GPU Cloud: $CRWV
Digital Infrastructure: $EQIX
Data Center Construction: $FIX
Cybersecurity: $CRWD
2028–2030 BUILD THE POWER & RESOURCES
Grid Infrastructure: $PWR
Electrical Equipment: $ETN
Utilities / Interconnection: $AEP
Power Producers: $VST
Gas / Turbines: $GEV
On-Site Power: $BE
Energy Storage: $EOSE
Nuclear: $OKLO
Uranium / Nuclear Fuel: $CCJ
Copper: $FCX
Critical Minerals: $ALB
Rare Earths: $MP
2030+ BUILD THE PHYSICAL AI ECONOMY
AI Applications: $PLTR $NOW
Robotics: $TSLA
Industrial Automation: $ROK
Autonomy: $GOOGL $MBLY
Drones: $AVAV
Defense Tech: $KTOS
Space Economy: $SPCX $RKLB
Quantum: $IONQ
AI Healthcare: $TEM
Most people will chase whatever is already moving.
I’m positioning around what the world will be forced to build next.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
说Meta的muse不好用，并非我脱离群众太久。而是我把模糊的感觉跟严谨的数据分开得出的结果
一个可爱的形象、好的传播途径，是重要，但我更多注意的是：
1. 次日留存和七日留存
2. 用户的 lifetime value
3. 对 Meta 资源的消耗以及带来的收益
4. 真正的付费比例
不论怎么说，我作为实际使用过 Muse 和高频使用各种 AI 助理的人，我都认为 Muse 是个半成品
包括我帖子的评论区，很多人估计都不太会用 AI，情绪被渲染得这么高。这在我这里是一个情绪跑在基本面前面的强烈信号
我认为 随着这个美国大豆包真正的留存和付费意愿被揭露, META 的股价可能会开始震荡甚至下跌。我打算买入看跌期权等待情绪回归
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
Wow $NBIS relative outperformance is wild.
Back in 2025 I wrote my Neocloud thesis on $IREN to $CRWV. But I made the decision months later to consolidate it all into Nebius...
Despite the the hate from FinX back then.
Very interesting to see Nebius up 6% even during sector drop…
After Oracle was reportedly seeking payment protection if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening.
With Oracle:
"seeking to protect itself from potential cost increases related to a large DC project in New Mexico by sending a force majeure notice" per Reuters.
Lot of new people like to piggyback after it’s up a lot, but there was a lot less people bullish back in 2025.
Especially during the period with a ton of institutional short sellers back in December.
I still think markets might be underestimating sum of parts growth, even if its core business grows like crazy 2027+ onwards.
Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left.
This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no:
- Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution.
- High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face.
- Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack.
After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear:
Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business.
With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening:
Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside.
You are simply just waiting for company execution.
OOI CHEA WEI retweeted
$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August.
It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout.
Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout.
Or convertible notes at 40% premiums.
It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs).
I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a year. And I'll say the same thing with my own thesis names too.
I see $AAOI operationally very bullish for 2027, with $471m/month transceiver revenue. 400k ELSFP units/month entering 2028.
The revenue ramp is absurd and can compress to single digit forward P/E.
But I find it hard to get excited over funding infinite ATMs during the buildout, when you're sacrificing opportunity cost with names currently profitable like $SNDK or Samsung.
I think a lot of retail investors conflate stock performance with how a company is doing operationally.
$AAOI is capitalizing on a bottleneck with high demand visibility, but stock has been going nowhere near-term with repeated ATMs.
I do expect AOI to strongly outperform (especially in 2027) if they stop issuing these stupid ATMs.
