Christopher Radom

Do stars matter in recruiting? The age-old debate is certain to be amplified by Indiana's historic run. Here's my take from someone who has worked at the crossroads of college coaches and media for 30 years: Yes, because the math is empirical -- crystal clear. In last year's draft, 69% of 5-stars were drafted, and 65% over the last 3 drafts. **** Simply put: a 5-star is 19 times more likely to be drafted than a 2-star or unranked player ... 4 stars are 7 times more likely. Over the past three decades, recruiting rankings have been an excellent predictor of a high school player's success leading to the draft, and that is not up for debate. Yes, because much of the data that goes into rankings and ratings comes from college coaches. There has been a 3-decade mutual information exchange among ranking scouts, college assistants, and now GMs. The entire coaching community provides valuable feedback during the discovery and slotting process. The argument that the rankings are generated from a bunch of non-former players sitting behind computers is simply not true. This repository of data is the work of an entire ecosystem -- the reason it has been so accurate over the years. Yes, because it matters to the teams that most often win the title. Teams like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, etc. have consistently been the teams over the past decade that have won titles and annually place in the top 3-5 in recruiting rankings. Also, while Indiana's historic team is not built on the foundation of Blue Chips, we are already seeing the Hoosier staff target 4-5-star recruits and TP on the heels of their success. No, it is not everything. It's not even close. It may not even be the most important thing, but it is extremely valuable. No one in the recruiting industry believes that 2, 3, or unranked players are destined to failure -- not playing at a P5 or ultimately drafted. Grit, hard work, ball skills, "mental as to physical as 4:1" (aka Bobby Knight) are huge factors -- it's not just about raw talent. Admittedly, our industry struggles to measure intangibles, and we are no different than colleges and pro scouts. The system is not perfect. Despite all the data, testing, and recommendations from college coaches, performance on the field, the scouting process remains heavily subjective. Additionally, there will be players every year who don't get seen—get noticed. There are late bloomers and outliers. But what the system has proven since it started is that the math doesn't lie. There are only 32 five stars every year, around 350 4-stars out of thousands of high school football players, and more than 65% of those 5 stars get drafted. That is an amazing success rate year after year, and that is why the very system that is often challenged is so heavily relied on. Not to mention, college programs are throwing millions at these selected 32 "prospects" each and every year before they ever play a down at the college level. @Rivals on3.com/nfl/draft/2025/draft…