Chris Kleene

We’re Doubling down on dumb. ESPN is in deep trouble and seems to be going on tilt. They’re drowning in their SEC and CFP deals. Regular Season (Q1 FY26, Oct–Dec 2025) fell 22.7% last year. The playoff quarter is getting worse(Jan–Mar margins went from 18% to 15% to 14% over three years.) To make matters worse, CFB viewership is down a reported 11% so far this season. They aren't taking the expanded CFP to market because everyone knows the market isn't there. Everyone is choking on their deals. This change order kills conference title games and low value bowls, saving about $150M per year. Net spend rises about $200M, but cost per premium postseason game drops about 30%. Moving the start of the playoffs to the first half of December allows it to fall within the busiest advertising flight of the year, but it also kills profitable games that were already there. It’s worth speculating that the additional CFP spots for the SEC are a compromise for a yet unreported decrease in their regular season conference payouts. But what’s maddening, is that despite all this, it probably won’t be a financial win for anyone… ESPN, SEC, or any other conference. ESPN needs to find an additional $200M+ in revenue. If their ledger proves anything, it’s that viewership gains don’t proportionally result in ad revenue or carriage revenue gains. Again, that’s assuming that changes will actually result in net regular and CFP viewership gains, which seems like a long shot based on literally every college football fan's response so far. TV Executives kidding themselves while convincing ADs and Conference Commissioners to sign off. What a literal unmitigated disaster.