Possibly the only useful thing I remember from undergrad is solving at the extremes/boundary conditions and assuming continuity of some sort in between. This is a great example of that.
I get why people are characterizing this proble this way, because both instinct to just say "the odds that the next card is 2♣ or A♠ is the same" and doing the math with stars and bars to prove they're equal gets you the right answer. But saying "Well, when you get to the 1st A, you've concentrated the rest of the As in the remaining cards, while there's a chance that 2♣ has already been flipped, but then the first A might be the A♠ so that reduces it chances of being next..." will tie you in knots a bit.
But this "mid" way is the most interesting way of thinking about problem! The proof is trivial and doesn't really produce any intuition (IMO). And it's actually pretty cool that these things balance each other out.
A few random interesting things. The over/under on when you see the 1st A is 8½. If the 1st A appears in the 1st 12 cards the next card if more likely to be 2♣. If the 1st ace appears at card 13 they are exactly equal. If the 1st A is anything past card 13, A♠ is more likely.
There is some lesson here about AI and math, but I'm not sure what it is.
Rationally, no one gives a shit about you or the Yankees. Great last part though!
Evergreen doyer with the worst takes. Show me how the 2021 NLDS ended.
I’m genuinely curious as to why Fox didn’t show this angle of Yandy’s check swing
They showed every angle except the one that would’ve been conclusive lmao
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The attached video shows Junior Caminero from Game 1, not Yandy Diaz's check swing in Game 2. Fox broadcast of the Diaz play: x.com/MLBONFOX/statu…
yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/r…
x.com/plswinbluejays…
Didn't see you crying about this one
The 2021 NLDS ended on a check-swing call. With two outs in the ninth of Game 5, first-base umpire Gabe Morales ruled that Wilmer Flores swung against Max Scherzer, ending the Giants' 107-win season in a 2-1 Dodgers victory.
That's a brutal way for a full season to stop.
One judgment call on one half-swing became the final image of a winner-take-all playoff game.
I unfortunately fear this is going to be the Guardians' Endy Chavez moment. I hope I am misguided.
I don't know you, I know and generally respect YC founders, and I'm not here to rat you out BUT take it from a guy who told his kids he might go to jail (for reporting the results of peer-reviewed research on our website), you should delete this. Happy to introduce many people that can help.
You can have Alzheimer's for 15 years and not know it.
We can finally slow it down. But only if we catch it early.
So we built the earliest test for it. Saccade (YC F26)
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Saccade markets its VR test as the "world's earliest Alzheimer's test," but its site states results "do not confirm or rule out Alzheimer’s," are "investigational research measures" and not validated for individual diagnosis. saccade.health saccade.health/assessment.html
First paid post among my followed?
Conceptually, I agree with @PeterKolchinsky here. Call it weight gain prevention, micro-dieting or whatever, but making a relatively inexpensive, low-dose version of GLP-1s available over the counter is where the market should be heading.
In many ways, it’s moving in that direction already. We all know that telehealth operators, with ultra-lax prescribing standards, allow anyone to get a weight loss drug as long as they can afford it. The idea that these are “prescription” medications is a joke.
So, why not go all the way?Most people would be happy with a bit of weight loss (or weight gain prevention)that they can buy at the local drugstore.
The real future revenue opportunity for frontier labs (if these types of discoveries are truly boundless) is a fractional licensing structure to enable domain experts to execute. I agree, don't particularly care for academic gatekeeping.
“ok cool these gene therapy results are still accurate; have fun figuring out what to do with them. It's yours, we'll take 0.1%."
Jon Coe retweeted
It’s 2075. There is only one hospital in the entire country. It is 8 square miles in the middle of Kansas and owned by United Healthcare. Premiums are $47,000 per month. The only medications left are Ozempic and boner pills. Life expectancy is 38.
Government: “I can’t believe doctors did this to us.”
Jon Coe retweeted
🚨🚨WOW! This is absolutely amazing to see that Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel have won the Nobel prize in medicine for their optogenetic research! Visual optogenetics is a therapeutic modality that uses Gene Therapy to deliver a light-sensitive protein to cells in the retina. This mechanism of entering light to the eye can then stimulate these cells to produce a visual signal that is sent to the brain and thus “overriding” the retinal cells and to restore vision to vision impaired patients. This mechanism is already in clinical development and the most advanced optogenetic therapy is currently Nanoscope Therapeutics’ MOGENRY (formally known MCO-010) - an Optogenetic Gene Therapy aimed to restore vision in Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP) patients with a severe vision loss which is waiting for an FDA approval! Absolutely amazing!
BREAKING NEWS
The 2026 #NobelPrize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel “for their discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics.”
Let's maybe have you start off coaching a Little League team, poindexter. I say that lovingly as a fellow nerd, student, and former player--it works, up to a point--but it's an area of debate re: modeling and execution. And it didn't work for Little League 🤣
if i ran a major league baseball franchise i’d feed every stat imaginable into frontier ai models & basically delegate the roster construction + entire game management layer to them. no traditional manager & no gm making baseball decisions by gut ever. the manager & gm are both ai agents.
for every game every pitch would update the model including exit velocity, pitch velocity, spin, fatigue, matchups, positioning, bullpen availability / usage, etc. & it would continuously simulate thousands of scenarios & make the highest expected value decision in real time.
then over a 162 game season it watches every game afterward through precision cameras, grades every decision, learns from every outcome, & gets better.
baseball might be the perfect sport for this. it has discrete events, absurd amounts of data, repeated situations, & a gigantic sample size.
billy beane found mispriced players but this finds mispriced decisions too on every layer.
can some billionaire please buy an mlb franchise & let me run this experiment pretty please?
this would be the houston astros on steroids. imagine ai winning a ring?
cc @JoshuaKushner
Is there anything that works less than Great Clips check in? I doubt it, but remain open to other nominees.
Down 3 getting 1 hit and Dave Roberts has made 3 subs. Juan Soto being one of those subbed. Dude only knows how to coach an all-star team when it's playing regular teams.
