Professional trader. Wall Street veteran for 20 yrs in NYC working w/ the largest HF's in the world. Founder CSC Macro Report & Trading-Not Financial Advice
Joined January 2018
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Sep 7: we favored semis, the Mag 7 and the Nasdaq 100.
Sep 4–25 total return:
$SMH +6.98%
Mag 7 +4.81%
$NDX +3.63%
$SPX +0.38%
Equal-weight S&P −3.25%
Not a lucky guess.
cscmacroreport.beehiiv.com/?…
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
On 10/18 we laid out eight reasons semis could find a low.
$SMH bottomed Oct 22 and rose about 9.7% in four sessions through Oct 28's close. Not bad for a tactical bounce.
Can it become something more durable?
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
What we're watching in semis, in our midweek report: cscmacroreport.beehiiv.com/?…
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Warsh has spoken. The next hike depends on the data. None of that is news.
The bigger tell: tighter financial conditions are doing some of the Fed's work. With growth leaning on AI capex, funding matters.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Our midweek report, free: cscmacroreport.beehiiv.com/?…
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Core PCE
Core PCE Prints In Line With Average ForecastCore PCE inflation rose 0.317% last month, pretty close to the average forecast on an unrounded basis.
Services excluding energy and housing rose 0.37%, which is slightly higher than is comfortable.
Meanwhile, GDP growth bested expectations to a slight degree, rising 3.4% thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending.
he consumer remains the bedrock of the economy, but AI spending is the marginal driver of growth.
#SPX $SPY
Thursday felt like a wholesale retreat from risk. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%.
Yet more than 300 of its stocks rose.
The selling was severe but concentrated. That's a crowded-trade unwind, not broad deterioration.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
More in this week's report, free: cscmacroreport.beehiiv.com/?…
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
When the market lacks a trend, do less.
Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP basket pair fell 4% Thursday. In the past decade, only DeepSeek Monday and March 2020 compare.
Activity alone isn't an edge.
Chart: Goldman Sachs
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
This week's report, free: cscmacroreport.beehiiv.com/?…
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Consumer sentiment has dropped to a 5-month low with consumer expectations for higher prices to rise ~5% yr/yr.
Semis ($SOXX) likely sees their longest consecutive down stretch since last Nov.
$NOK Q good and they sell it down 10% after already getting cut in half.
This is where we are. sell everything. shorts are about to get yanked.
This week's report, free: cscmacroreport.beehiiv.com/?…
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Blackstone's Gray on the notion that AI is a bubble:
“When you think about a bubble, you think about building capacity and then hoping the demand comes,” Gray said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday after the firm reported its third-quarter results. “With AI, you’re building capacity, and you’re hoping you can keep up with the demand.”
It’s “a very different dynamic” from phenomena such as the 1990s telecom bubble, he said. Gray pointed to an AI consulting firm Blackstone created with Anthropic PBC called Ode.
“We can’t keep up with customer demand,” he said. “Demand is almost parabolic.”
#SPX $SPY $QQQ
Hedge Fund loading up on shorts per GS
Across global equities, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk says short sales have exceeded long purchases by a ratio of roughly five to one. Short leverage across its book sits in the 99th percentile over the past five years. Net leverage among fundamental long/short funds, a gauge of how much long exposure exceeds shorts, is near a three-year low, despite a rise in gross leverage.
