Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities.
Bethesda, MD, USA
Joined March 2014
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Subseasonal guidance just cannot shake tell-tale signal of strong to super El Niño conditions: Northeast Pacific upper level low pressure and associated elongated super-charged jet stream, keeping North America warm to very warm.
Hour 360 all-ensemble mean of NWP and AI guidance is reading middle November: powerful GOA low continues to support warm to super-warm pattern over most of North American continent.
Our final month ahead call for November is warmest on record, besting prior record from 25 years ago (2001) by 31 HDDs.
Earliest SSW on record still on schedule for next week with some impacts in Europe, but not anything yet for North America thanks to super El Niño influences.
Colder push next two weeks not enough to push Europe/Black Sea wheat into dormancy. commoditywx.com/news/2026102…
Paraná fieldwork has not shown severe impacts on the latest progress report, following another wet week. commoditywx.com/news/2026102…
Medium-range models reaching toward middle November with powerful northeast Pacific trough and stretched PNA ridge preventing cold air access to Canada and U.S.
Powerful Pacific jet stream offsets/outweighs any immediate influences from next week's Sudden Stratospheric Warming expectation (thanks to super Niño).
Models have been advertising weaker warmth or cooler variability in 11-15 day, but have struggled to advance that into more skillful 6-10 day, with warmer changes for Midwest, East, and South.
Parana to SE Minas Gerais corn/soy/sugar/wheat likely remain the focus for surplus moisture through early November. commoditywx.com/news/2026102…
IA remains 20% behind normal on corn harvest; KS wheat seeding advanced notably in this week's USDA crop progress report. commoditywx.com/news/2026102…
Unlike last year at this time, Euro weeklies keep Pacific split flow going into early December, keeping Canada very warm, and probably not warm enough for Lower 48. Powerful El Niño influences seen to continue.
Super El Niño, with a dash of strong -PDO, is deflecting stratospheric warming influences for North America. Strong Pacific jet stream flow undercuts blocking efforts in the North Pacific.
Earliest SSW in recorded history is forecast next week, with near real-time impacts for colder European trends, as Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations veer negative.
Massive medium-range modeling demand losses this past weekend, as November kicks off momentum to potentially be warmest on record.
Watching unusually early first-of-season stratospheric warming in Northern Hemisphere. But this year's super El Niño could significantly outweigh anything else, such as this factor.
AI ensemble clusters show more support for continued warm to very warm pattern deep into 1st week of November for Midwest, East. and South.
