James OBrien

Social media is filled with so-called experts shilling coins and advice along with the incredible picks they've made. Maybe I'm a bit slow, but if you pick 100's of coins, some are bound to skyrocket at some point. We never hear these same KOL's announce the majority of picks they've made that have died a slow death. Please be careful with who you follow, research picks and make an informed decision for yourself. Most importantly .... Have a Plan!

Listen to @dxbcrypto121 This man is sharp and helps so many traders. If you haven't joined his discord, I highly recommend. Major alpha on a daily basis on the macro, technical, trending, and token-specific. The members of the discord are all incredible people, sharing alpha along with market discussions. All for $9 a month, best deal in crypto imo.

The Binance hack caused a 4.5% drop in BTC. I'm actually surprised the drop was not deeper and did not hit the 50 SMA at 75.7K or the 21 SMA at 72.6K on the weekly chart. Imo, the 21 SMA is key to hold support as a higher low in order for the bull trend to continue. If it is breached and holds as resistance, expect a revisit to the cycle lows. Tech stocks are beginning to get hit, the S&P 500 is revisiting the 21 SMA on the weekly and mid-term elections next week. BTC weekly RSI is currently moving under the long term trendline while the SRSI continues under the 80, all bearish high timeframe indicators. Keep an eye on the BTC weekly 21 SMA. Price remaining above it supports a higher low and continued move up. A drop below and hold as resistance most likely leads to bargain hunting opportunities. Peace!

Crypto's Elephant in the Room ... S&P 500 At some point, the S&P 500 will have a correction. Could start today, next month or next year and drop 10%, 20%, 30% or more, no one knows. On average, BTC drops by 2.5 times to a S&P drop, so on average a 20% S&P correction could equate to a 50% drop in BTC. Post-2024: With the introduction of spot ETFs, billions in Wall Street capital now dictate Bitcoin's flows. When systemic risk hits the equity markets, automated risk-management algorithms sell off Bitcoin alongside tech stocks, amplifying the downside. A simple way to gauge when this correction will occur is to follow the S&P 500 on a Weekly Chart with a 21 SMA. When a partial or full body of a weekly candle closes below the 21 SMA, the correction should be in motion. From there you can run a Fib from the previous pivot low to pivot high to gauge where the supports may be. After BTC's big run up from August, I know that many are feeling that BTC is in full bull phase. This information isn't meant to ruin the party, just to make investors aware that there's a big hiccup coming along it's path. Peace!

As BTC condolidates in to Wednesay's Fed rate decision, here are 3 scenarios I'm seeing on the Daily Chart. 1. A clean break of the channel to the weekly 50 SMA 2. A move up to the upper channel line and retracement back to lower trendline 3. A short liquidity grab up to the current pivot high Unless its a high volume wick move it's important to wait for the daily candle close before assessing the direction. Peace!

BTC weekly SRSI has closed below 80. I'm looking at the 50 SMA as the next major support barring a SRSI fakeout, which are rare on the weekly timeframe on cross-downs. If you missed loading up on the first cycle low, this could be your second chance to start dcaing. I am personally looking for a move to the 21 SMA for dca opportunities. Peace!

A bullish parallel channel has formed on the USDT/USDC weekly chart. Another one to keep an eye on. It's inverse to the market. As traders/institutions convert to stablecoins they are pulling out of the market and parking thier dry powder. So as this chart goes up, the market generally goes down.

A look into BTC on the Weekly, please excuse the busy chart. A clear resistance point at 87,150. Breaking this to the upside points to a move to the 90's, really up to the 94K area before any real resistance after the 90K hurdle is cleared. To the downside, waiting to see if the weekly candle closes below the lower trendline on the ascending parallel channel where I'd expect some increased selling pressure to the support area at 76.5K sitting right at the 50 SMA. Just below that support is an empty vlume node which could play a factor to a quick move approaching the 21 SMA currently at around 72K. If price does reach the 21 SMA, expect a strong bounce there.

A symmetrical triangle has formed on the BTC Daily Chart. Signifies an indecision point and is typically followed by a breakout up or down. Which way do we go? 79.8K is near-term support, 87.2K is near-term resistance. Higher timeframe supports at the 50 SMA (76.2K) and 21 SMA (72K).

Keep an eye on the BTC Weekly SRSI. On the weekly close, the fast line has crossed the 80, but an 80 line cross down won't be confirmed until the slow line (orange) closes below the 80. A confirmed close below 80 is significant because there are rarely any fakeouts on 80-line cross downs which typically result in corrective moves to the downside. Price is currently battling with the lower parallel channel trendline. If price does move lower from here, look to the 50 and 21 MA's for supports. That said, there are a couple of deep pockets of short liquidity showing on the 30-day heatmap at around 83.3K and 84.4K that might be enticing for a squeeze up before any moves to the downside if they occur. May the Alts be with You!

CPI report came in slightly hot causing today's BTC drop. On the weekly, BTC has formed a steep parallel channel off of a long green flagpole. Look for BTC to hold the bottom of the channel to maintain bullish momentum. A weekly close below the bottom channel line points to a possible meetup with the 21 SMA. Steep channels, both upward and downward typically lead to the large move once breached. May the Alts be with You!

BTC continues holding to the magnet price at 82,800. Barring any macro event news I'd expect price to hover until Wednesday's CPI report.

BTC indecision point at the critical 82.8K line. Short orders lined up on the hourly and buy orders on the daily. Squeeze liquidity slants more to an upside move but to me it's 50/50 as to the direction of the move out of this short term compression. October 14th CPI report could be a major catalyst for the market. Keeping an eye on the weekly SRSI. It's been hovering above 80 for over a month.

BTC testing the critical battle line at 82.8K. The bulls and bears will be fighting it out. If Breached, look to the 21 SMA as first line of structural support.