Research, strategy, sensemaking @Meta. Public opinion and survey specialist. External faculty @NICOatNU. @Umich PhD, @OhioState Buckeye for life. 🏳️🌈
Brooklyn, NY
Joined March 2009
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Chris Skovron retweeted
The opposition to data centers in the election was remarkably bipartisan. Here is a graph of the voteshare in opposition to data centers and the Kamala Harris share of the two party vote in 2024. r=.18. Basically no relationship between party and data center opposition.
Chris Skovron retweeted
if she announced she wanted to hunt Vivek for sport in the woods of Scioto County I would completely understand
Governor-elect Amy Acton (D-OH) says she has “no intention of speaking” to her Republican opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy, after his campaign ran a controversial ad that featured her estranged mother: “Leaders’ words matter and we need to hold folks accountable.”
First on CBS Mornings, Governor-elect Acton also shares about her mission to bring “public service, unity and decency” to her state and her position on AI data centers: “We’re open for business, but we’re not for sale and we’re not to be exploited.”
Chris Skovron retweeted
Darline Graham ran the worst campaign in the history of human democracy, even going back to fucking Ancient Greece.
Chris Skovron retweeted
Sounds like Ohio State will be announcing that it will not, in fact, be removing Epstein co-conspirator Leslie Wexner's name from its campus buildings.
Employees were told just minutes ago.
Chris Skovron retweeted
2028 Democrats flocking to put on matching lab coats at Annie Andrews' Tofu Fry
Chris Skovron retweeted
He totally voted for her, right?
I know he endorsed Vivek, but let’s be serious.
I just asked Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine about possible Republican efforts to take away or lessen the powers of the governor prior to Gov-elect Dr. Amy Acton taking office in January. I asked if he would veto.
“No governor would sign.”
@WEWS @WCPO @OhioCapJournal
Chris Skovron retweeted
Nice graph from @gelliottmorris showing moderate candidates continue to do meaningfully better. This election was another win for political science!
I was really annoyed at the debate about what empirical measure to use for ideology so I coded a lil script to use a LLM judge candidate ideology with pairwise comparisons and then put everyone on a single L-R scale (after Patrick Wu's work).
Results are here. Judge for yourself
Generally, in the Senate, we are seeing a smaller benefit for moderates than the predictions made by the centrist crowd during the 2025 vintage of this debate.
And in the House, DSA candidates are running better than the average Democrat!!
Chris Skovron retweeted
GOP politicians seem to be coalescing around explaining the midterm outcome as a result of Trump voters switching their vote to Democrats -- but so far the available data points at turnout as the main driver.
Chris Skovron retweeted
This take brings me no joy but “[Insert demo here] maintained similar support levels as past cycles in the context of a 15pt national swing” doesn’t make me feel great about support trends among [insert demo here]…
Our poll of Jewish voters for @jstreetdotorg: There's no exodus of Jewish voters from the Dem party:
Chris Skovron retweeted
For the last few weeks any time I’ve talked to anyone about the upcoming elections they’ve all done the same thing: pulled out their phones and checked kalshi to get the latest probabilities.
For election nerds old enough to remember the days of intrade and predictit, it’s a completely astonishing and incredible change. And it’s even crazier when you hear the story of the journey that @mansourtarek_ and @luanalopeslara went on to make it happen.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
Chris Skovron retweeted
my default position is almost always to let bygones be bygones after elections, but I do not blame the gov.-elect for refusing to take this particular call
Last night when Vivek Ramaswamy called Amy Acton to concede the Ohio governors race, he got the Democrat’s voicemail. Acton has not called him back, and the two have not yet spoken.
“And there are no plans to,” said a person in the Acton campaign.
wapo.st/4ej22aA
Chris Skovron retweeted
Now this… THIS is the America I love.
Flanagan: "All across the country today people spoke loudly and clearly, and the powerful sure better listen. Whether people put up signs for a pediatrician in South Carolina or made calls for a former school teacher in Texas. Whether they knocked on doors for a Paralympian legislator in Iowa or for a logger in Maine, a methodist minister in Kansas, or a Muslim-American doctor in Michigan. Or whether they voted for the daughter of a navy veteran and school teacher in Chicago. Or worked their hearts out for this Irish Catholic Native American from Saint Louis Park."
Chris Skovron retweeted
Jamie Ager appears to be the only House Dem in North Carolina running ahead of Roy Cooper. An amazing candidate and campaign
Chris Skovron retweeted
Another great moment from last night: Conman calling Dr. Acton to concede and her sending him straight to voicemail.
Like, no, you don't get to platform a kitten-killing, pedophile-loving wife of a serial incestuous rapist and then get to claim it's all in the game.
Chris Skovron retweeted
She overperformed Rs in every competitive Senate race and nearly won in an impossible environment. So much pundit fallacy today.
Susan Collins lost her race because of Susan Collins -- and her support of Brett Kavanaugh. She adopted a persona of a fearless independent who would fight for Mainers no matter the party politics. But when it mattered, she took the coward's route.
slate.com/news-and-politics/…
