CT Election Guide

Avon has shifted by a fair amount over the past dozen years, shifting nearly 30 points to the left from 2012 to 2020, with notable no shift from 2020 to 2024. 2008: Obama 53-46 2012: Romney 53-46 2016: Clinton 54-42 2020: Biden 61-37 2024: Harris 60-38

In the Connecticut State Senate, Democrats are contesting all 36 seats. Republicans are contesting 29/36 seats. In the Connecticut State House, Democrats are contesting 145/151 seats. Republicans are contesting 115/151 seats

In CT-HD-35, we got a 2024 rematch between Rep. Chris Aniskovich and Democrat Cinzia Lettieri. Letteri is favored in this Harris +7 seat that she lost by a 1 point in 2024. This seat flipped to Democrats in 2020, before Aniskovich flipped it back to the GOP in 2022.

Democrat Harrison Amadasun had to win a court battle for his town council seat last year as South Windsor officials seated a Republican over Amadasun despite him winning more votes, citing a new charter cap on either party’s council seats. A judge later ruled the change wasn’t meant to take effect until 2027.

In CT-HD-14, Rep. Tom Delnicki (R- South Windsor) has consistently outrun his district’s partisan lean, winning 55-43 in 2024 in a Harris+20 seat. But, South Windsor’s town council flipped to Democratic control last year, a sign for Delnicki as he faces Democrat Harrison Amadasun.

Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding could face the closest race of his career in SD-30. Harding faces Democrat Aaron Zimmer in this Litchfield County based seat. Harding remains favored in this Harris +1 seat that has been super inelastic the last few cycles. The Republican has gotten 53-54% of the vote in this seat in the last 4 cycles. Rating: Lean R

In SD-16, Sen. Rob Sampson (R-Wolcott) faces Democrat Jack Perry. This is a rematch of the 2020 race, where Sampson won 54-46. Sampson won by a larger 57-43 margin in 2024. Sampson remains favored in this Trump +9.7 seat. Rating: Lean R

Republicans have held onto SD-28 for the past 50 years. However that streak may come to the end with Sen. Tony Hwang's retirement. Democrat Rob Blanchard is favored to flip the seat against Republican Amybeth Laroche in this Harris +18 seat. Rating: Likely D

National groups have mostly stayed out of CT's 5th Congressional District, but there is a bit of last minute spending. SEAL the Deal PAC supporting Republican Chris Shea spent 50k attacking Rep. Jahana Hayes. Pro-Choice Majority Action spent $250k attacking Shea.

Connecticut State Senate Ratings Update 5 GOP-held seats shift toward Dems amid a bluer national environment and Gov. Lamont’s strong polling, putting a 28D-8R majority in play. SD-28, SD-36: Lean D -> Likely D SD-35 -> Toss-Up -> Lean D SD-7, SD-30 -> Likely R -> Lean R

An odd race in CT-HD-31, moderate Democratic incumbent Jill Barry lost the party convention to Moise Carelus in May, then skipped the primary. Barry is running as an independent with GOP support in the general election against Carelus. Carelus is favored in this Harris +25 seat.

3 Republican legislators in seats won by Kamala Harris are unopposed. Rep. Tracy Marra in Harris +22, HD-141, Rep. Christine Carpino in Harris +8, HD-32, and Rep. Jason Buchsbaum in Harris +3, HD-69. Carpino notably has been unopposed in 3 of the last 4 cycles.

State Rep. Tracy Marra (R-Darien) is running unopposed in HD-141, the bluest seat in the state held by a Republican legislator. Marra won by 16 points in 2024, despite Kamala Harris winning her seat by a large 61-38 margin, the largest overperformance of any legislator in 2024.