If you remove my programming editor (vi) from my work identity (David), you get my home identity (Dad).
THE MOST INCOMPETENT WAR IN HISTORY: SARAH PAINE ON TRUMPโS IRAN DISASTER
Dr. Sarah Paine, a leading historian of great-power conflict and strategy, delivers a blunt verdict on the Iran war. She calls it one of the most incompetent wars in human history. The decision ignored basic principles of assessment, put maximum costs on America itself, and left permanent damage to the countryโs power and alliances. This is not hindsightโit is the predictable result of hubris meeting reality.
THE CORE VERDICT
โก๏ธ โThe Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history.โ
โก๏ธ A competent war puts the costs on the enemy and minimizes them for yourself.
โก๏ธ This one did the opposite.
THE COST CATASTROPHE
โก๏ธ It trashed the US economy.
โก๏ธ It blew the US alliance system.
โก๏ธ Iran is hurting, but the collateral damage is taking down the worldโs economy.
โก๏ธ That transforms the United States from a partner into an annoyanceโand for many, a primary adversaryโbecause it is threatening their economies.
โก๏ธ โThatโs breathtakingly incompetent.โ
THE STRATEGIC BLIND SPOT
โก๏ธ Any serious assessment looks at the enemyโs strengths and your own weaknesses, plus everyone else who might intervene.
โก๏ธ That was absent.
โก๏ธ The first thing Iran would do is shut Hormuz. Narrow seas close in wartime. Ukraine already showed this with the Black Sea.
โก๏ธ Shore artillery, mines, and other tools stop traffic. There is no mystery here.
โก๏ธ The big naval base in Bahrain becomes unreachable. The fallback is Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away in the middle of nowhere. โThat would be a mess.โ
THE HUBRIS THAT MADE IT POSSIBLE
โก๏ธ The people making the calls are historically unqualified for the job. That makes them profoundly dangerous.
โก๏ธ Type A hubris assumes all decisions that matter happen in the United States.
โก๏ธ Type B hubris assumes being good at one thing makes you good at everything.
โก๏ธ Half-court tennis: you only watch your own side and never study the other team.
โก๏ธ The Iranians understand Americans far better than Americans understand them.
THE UNFEASIBLE OBJECTIVE
โก๏ธ Trying to โsolveโ Iran with 90 million people was never realistic.
โก๏ธ Nazi Germany had roughly 80 million and required an occupation force of about 1.5 million just to hold it after the warโbefore counting everyone else.
โก๏ธ The goal was unattainable. Pursuing it guarantees overextension and a bad ending.
โก๏ธ The lesson the world takes is simple: get a nuke. The war incentivized proliferation.
โก๏ธ This was a pivotal error. The choices that existed before are gone and will not return. โWe will never be the trusted partner ever again. Itโs done.โ
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Iran war did not merely fail. It maximized American costs, destroyed trust with allies, and handed every rival a clearer reason to treat the United States as a threat to their own prosperity. Competence would have contained the problem at affordable cost. Hubris chose the opposite.
This is what permanent strategic damage looks like.
#IranWar #SarahPaine #StrategicIncompetence #HormuzDisaster #USHubris #AllianceCollapse #CatastrophicMistake
HT: YouTube The Diary Of A CEO
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Wow. I woke up to an impressive number of upset people who apparently donโt understand how LLMs work and canโt cope well with me pointing it out.
An LLM is a statistical next-token prediction model. Thatโs how it works. Itโs an extraordinarily sophisticated calculator performing math you could theoretically do by hand (if you were sufficiently masochistic).
Math doesnโt know what itโs calculating. Pi doesnโt spend its evenings contemplating the nature of circles, and c doesnโt ponder the relationship between matter and energy.
That doesnโt make the results any less accurate, impressive, or useful.
Between inference requests, an LLM isnโt sitting around thinking. It isnโt reconsidering its answers, wondering whether it made a mistake, contemplating its existence, or questioning whether itโs conscious. Its weights remain fixed (it doesnโt learn), and computation resumes when it receives input.
We know this because we designed these systems. The architectures, mathematics, implementations, and research are extensively documented. You can study them yourself.
Of course, some people immediately lean into comparisons of biological intelligence or philosophical debates over consciousness because that is what they know.
But biological intelligence and artificial neural networks are fundamentally different systems. Similar outputs donโt establish equivalent internal experiences.
I experience consciousness directly. I infer that other humans do too because we share biological structures and processes. We donโt have equivalent evidence for an LLM, and nothing about its known operation gives evidence of conscious experience.
Which brings me back to my original point.
To me, understanding is conscious comprehension. It means being aware of information, recognizing its meaning, and experiencing that comprehension. If I wasnโt conscious I could not understand.
We can perform actions unconsciously. We can produce correct results without knowing why theyโre correct. But I distinguish those capabilities from consciously understanding what weโre doing.
An LLM can solve complex problems, explain difficult concepts, and produce remarkably accurate information. I give it full credit for those capabilities.
But producing an answer that we rationalize as understanding isnโt the same as experiencing understanding.
You donโt have to agree with my definitions. We can debate functional understanding versus conscious comprehension all day, but that wonโt establish whether an LLM actually experiences anything.
The right debate is thisโฆ
Could machines exhibit something different from human consciousness, something measurable, meaningful, and worth studying?
I think so, absolutely!
Iโm entirely open to discussing โmachine consciousnessโ in terms of observable, testable computational properties. We built these systems, we can instrument them, examine their internal mechanisms, and investigate what theyโre capable of.
That seems far more productive than endlessly arguing over whether a machine experiences life the way humans do.
So hereโs my question:
How would you define machine consciousness, and more importantly, how would you measure it?
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Hello again! Here's our piece from Sunday about Twitter. Bye! youtube.com/watch?v=p7ZG_xWYโฆ
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
WOW! Protesters created a HUGE human sign on San Franciscoโs Ocean Beach reading โNo Kings YES on 50โ to support Californiaโs Prop 50 and stand up against Donald Trumpโs fascist regime
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
The Government is now shut down,but apparently no body called the school in Bronx that had come to the Capitol for their tour today so theyโre getting the treat of a lifetime since AOC agreed to give them the tour herself! Im loving this for all of them! ๐๐ค๐ฅ
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Everyone trying to use murder as a pretext to persecute perceived enemies before they know a thing about the the killer is saying they don't really care about the killer's identity or motivation, which are incidental and immaterial to the goal of advancing their political agenda
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
I like the fact that Earth has an entire surplus continent, but everyone still fixates on Mars. We have barren ice desert at home!
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
โThere are three ways to ultimate success: The first way is to be kind. The second way is to be kind. The third way is to be kind."-Mr. Rogers
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Animation by Yoh Yoshinari* | Neon Genesis Evangelion (1995)
#penciltest #sakuga #genga #2danimation
How unfillable is the hole in your soul that one could be the literal richest person in the world and then be upset that America has an agency that helps the poorest in the world? mastodon.social/@carnage4lifโฆ
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Elon Musk is a terrible president.
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
today is exactly 25 years since the greatest newspaper comic strip ever was published
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Bill Watterson, the genius behind Calvin and Hobbes, on creating a meaningful life
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
a=(x,y,o=mag(k=x/4-12.5,e=y/9+9)/9)=>point((q=x+99+tan(1/k)+o*k*(cos(e*9)/2+cos(y/9)/.7)*sin(o*4-t*2))*.7*sin(c=o*e/30-t/8)+200,200+y*cos(c*4-o)-q/2*cos(c))
t=0,draw=$=>{t||createCanvas(w=400,w);background(6).stroke(w,46);for(t+=PI/60,i=2e4;i--;)a(i%100,i/250)}#ใคใถใใProcessing
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
ใคใณใฏ็ตใใฃใโฆใใจใฏ็ๅฝฉใฎใฟใ
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
This is good, actually. She barely shows up and doesnโt do the reading.
To borrow a phrase I saw elsewhere, itโs like giving someone an unplugged controller.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene tapped to work with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy as new DOGE subcommittee chair cnbc.com/2024/11/21/marjorieโฆ
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
This scene is literally just god hand gameplay
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
Whether it's Tim Walz expanding his state's school lunch program or Matt Gaetz giving cocaine and Ecstasy to underage sex workers, both sides have taken controversial approaches towards feeding children.
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
legacy software companies adding an ai chatbot to their product
David Blume ๐งโโ๏ธ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ปโ๐ป retweeted
My meager education in biology and evolution gave me the mistaken impression that evolution optimized everything. But it didn't.
One example is the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN). It goes from behind your ear, loops down below your aorta, and then back up to the voice-box
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